3.10 Informe de salida
3.10.1 Crear informe
This study contributes to the empirical knowledge of the study by capitalising on the system dynamics methodology in understanding the determination of desired paddy deduction rate for both the farmers and millers in the MADA granary area. The findings from this study are useful for the key industry players as well as policy makers. The study is useful in examining the impact of policy changes in affecting the deduction rate on farmers’ income and millers’ profit. 1.6 Organization of the Study
This study is structured as follows. Chapter 1 begins with a brief discussion on the government role and intervention in the paddy and rice supply chain in Malaysia. The chapter goes on by describing the problem, research questions, research objectives and significance of the study.
Next, Chapter 2 deliberates on the paddy deduction system in the MADA granary area. Procedures of deduction practices in the granary area are also highlighted. Several deduction practices in the neighboring countries (e.g. Thailand, Viet Nam, Indonesia, Philippines) are also discussed.
Chapter 3 ensues by highlighting the literature on the system dynamics methodology and reviewing empirical studies related to the paddy and rice sector. The advantages of system dynamics modeling and comparison between the system dynamics approach and other methodologies are also presented. Chapter 4 discusses the research methodology and describes how this study utilizes the system dynamics in accordance with the recommended steps in the SD modelling. This chapter subsequently illustrates the resulting models i.e. causal loop and stock-and-flow diagrams for each sub-sector under study, followed by the description of loop in each sub-model. Key variables and parameters are reported together for each sub-model.
© COPYRIGHT
UPM
12
Then, Chapter 5 discusses the results, which are obtained based on the number of simulations of selected scenarios. The simulation results are disaggregated in two i.e. model validation and model testing for different key variables. Each simulation is illustrated by graphs of simulated and actual outputs based on the different scenarios. The discussion on the findings are successively presented. Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the study by presenting summary of the study, general conclusions, recommendations for policy makers and industry stakeholders, and recommendations for future research.
© COPYRIGHT
UPM
75 7 REFERENCES
Abu Hassan, D. & Mohd Zainal, L. (2012). Research report from Malaysia, ANTAM, Thailand.
Abu Hassan, D., Ibni Hajar, R., Dhiauddin, M. N., Mohd Zainal, I., Ishak, H., and Wahid, S. (2003). Post-harvest losses in Malaysia. (pp. 13-31). Japan Grain Inspection Association (KOKKEN).
Abdul Malik, I., and Mohaini, T. (1992). Idle land: Problems and solutions. In Mohd. Yusof Kassim and Md. Zyadi Md. Tahir (Eds.), Malaysian
Economy: Some Key Issues (in Malay). Bangi: Penerbit Universiti
Kebangsaan Malaysia.
Ann, C. T. (1996). Lack of incentives as contraints to introduction of efficient systems. In Grain drying in Asia: proceedings of an international
conference held at the FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand, 17-20 October 1995. Canberra: Australian Centre
for International Agricultural Research, 1996.
Andrea, M.B. (2013). A Review of Methodologies and Models to Support Green
Economy Policy. Paper presented at the workshop on Modeling an
Inclusive Green Economy, organised by Partnership for Action on Green Economy (PAGE), Millennium Institute (MI) and University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, 7-8 May.
Bala, B.K. (2013). Workshop in System Dynamics: Welcome to system
dynamics. Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies (IKDPM),
Universiti Putra Malaysia. 22-26 April.
Bala, B. K., Arshad, F. M., & Noh, K. M. (2017). Modelling of Supply Chain of Rice Milling Systems in Bangladesh. In System Dynamics (pp. 217- 247). Springer Singapore.
Baron, R. A. (1998). Cognitive mechanisms in entrepreneurship: Why and when entrepreneurs think differently than other people. Journal of Business
venturing, 13(4), 275-294.
BERNAS, (2013). Corporate Planning Department. BERNAS.
Boulding, K. E. (1956). General systems theory—the skeleton of science. Management science, 2(3), 197-208.
Boulding, K. E. (1957). Organization and conflict. Conflict Resolution, 1(2), 122- 134.
© COPYRIGHT
UPM
76
Chaim, R. M., & Streit, R. E. (2008). Pension funds governance: combining SD, Agent based modeling and fuzzy logic to address Dynamic Asset and Liability Management (ALM) problem. In Proceedings of the 26th
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society.
Chew, T. A., & Arshad, F. M. (1987). Comparative paddy pricing systems in ASEAN. In 9. ASEAN Technical Seminar on Grain Postharvest
Technology, (Singapore), 26-29 Aug 1986.
Chahal, K., & Eldabi, T. (2008, December). Applicability of hybrid simulation to different modes of governance in UK healthcare. In Simulation
Conference, 2008. WSC 2008. Winter (pp. 1469-1477). IEEE.
Damodar Gurajati (2003). Basic Econometrics. New York: McGraw-Hill. 4th ed., pp. 792-824.
Department of Agriculture (2016). Crop Statistical Handbook. Kuala Lumpur: Department of Agriculture._____ (2015). Paddy Production Survey
Report. Malaysia:
Department of Agriculture._____ (1980-2014). Paddy Production Survey
Report. Malaysia: Department of Agriculture.
Department of Statistics (2011). Malaysia Economics Statistics - Paddy
Economic Planning Unit (2010). Industrial production indicators. Retrieved from http://www.epu.gov.my/industrialproductionindicators (accessed on 10 November 2014).
Emmy Farha Alias (2013). Rice security policy in Malaysia: A system dynamics
analysis (Master dissertation). Universiti Putra Malaysia.
Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, and Ahmad Hanis Izani ahmad Hadi (2013). Issues, Policy and Strategies in Paddy and Rice Supply Chain. Presentation at Workshop on R&D Roadmap for Rice Security, Charting Research Agenda for Rice Paddy and Rice Industry in Malaysia: A Supply Chain Approach 2nd July 2013.
Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Emmy Farha Alias, & Kusairi Mohd Noh (2011). Food security: Self-sufficiency level of rice in Malaysia. International
Journal of Management Studies, 18(2), 83-100.
Fatimah Mohamed Arshad (1982). Paddy and Rice Marketing: Structure, Conduct and Performance.PERTANIKA, 5(2), 164-77.
© COPYRIGHT
UPM
77
Fatimah Mohamed Arshad and Mohd Ghazali Mohayidin (1990). Market Intervention in the Padi and Rice Industry: Evaluation, Rationale and Impact. Occasional Paper No. 6. Centre for Agricultural Policy Study, University Pertanian Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor.
Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Mohd Ghazali Mohayidin, Ahmad Mahzan Ayub and Madinah Husin (1983). The impact of paddy subsidy schemes on
Malaysian farmers (in Malay). Consultancy report submitted to the
Ministry of Public Entreprise, Kuala Lumpur.
FAO, (2000). Farming Systems in Australia. Working Paper. FAO, Rome.
Retrieved from http://
http://www.fao.org/docrep/article/agrippa/686_en.pdf
Garcia, J. M. (2006). Theory and practical exercises of system dynamics. Barcelona: Juan Martin Garcia
Giraldo, D., Arango, S. and Betancur, M. (2008). Model on food security in development countries: A systemic perspective. Proceedings of the 2008 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Athens, Greece.
Haghighi, M. H. M. (2007). Determination of optimal employment and production policies in the agricultural sector of Iran using system dynamics approach. Unpublish doctoral dissertation, Universiti Putra Malaysia. Hasimah, S., Jafri, Z., Norazura, A., Norhaslinda, Z. A., Nurul Nazihah, H.,
(2015). Introduction to system dynamics modelling and vensim software. Universiti Utara Malaysia.
Kameoka, T., & Hoki, M. (1990). Evolution of Farming Systemsin Peninsular Malaysia,―Technology Transfer and Affecting Factors―. Bull. Fac.
Bioresources, MieUniv, (3), 105-119.
Maani, K. E. and Cavana, R. Y. (2000). Systems thinking and modelling, understanding change and complexity. New Zealand: Pearson Education.
Malabuyoc, J. A., N. G. Mamicpic, P. S. Castillo, R. M. Miranda, and H. P. Callao. (1966). Grain characters, yield and milling quality of rice in relation to dates from heading. Phillip. Agric. 49:696-710
Meadows, D.H. (1979). The unavoidable a priori. In Randers, J. (Eds) Elements
of the System Dynamics Method. Cambridge Press, Mass: MIT Press.
Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-based Industries (2004). The review of paddy
and rice industry in Malaysia, Final Report. Ministry of Agriculture and
© COPYRIGHT
UPM
78
Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-based Industries (2014). Kempen Kesedaran
Meningkatkan Kualiti Hasil Padi. Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-based
Industries
Mohamed, Z., Terano, R., Shamsudin, M. N., & Abd Latif, I. (2016). Paddy Farmers’ Sustainability Practices in Granary Areas in Malaysia. Resources, 5(2), 17.
Mohayidin, M. G., Chew, T. A., & Ryland, G. J. (1988). Policy analysis and bulk handling of paddy in Malaysia. Agenda for reform of the Malaysian rice economy.
Moran, A. (2007). A study of the influence of goal alignment on multi- organizational projects: A system dynamics approach. Unpublished doctoral thesis, Oklahama State University. Retrieved from ProQuest online database.
Muda Agriculture Development Authority. (2013). MADA Statistical Handbook: MADA_____ (2014). MADA Statistical Handbook: MADA Mustapha, Z., Siwar, C. And Mustapha, N.H., (1986). Food economy of Malaysia: Problems and policies in food security. Monograph 3, The Faculty of Economics, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia.
Nadia Ramli, Mad Nasir Shamsudin, Zainalabidin Mohamed, & Alias Radam (2012a). Impact of price support policy on Malaysian rice industry. UMT International Annual Symposium on Sustainable Science and Management. Terengganu. 9-11 July.
Oelke, E. A., R. B. Ball, C. M. Wick, and M. D. Miller. (1968). Seed quality and seedling vigor of rice harvested at different grain moisture content. Pages 9-10 in California Cooperative Rice Research Foundation, Inc. University of California, and United States Department of Agriculture.
Rice research in California.
Padua, D. B. (2000). The Philippine rice postproduction consortium: need assessment of the postproduction industry. Proceeding, ASEAN Seminar on PostHarverst Technology, Ho Chi Minh City.
Sachan, A., Gupta, R., Das, V., Agarwal, A., Awasthi, P. K., & Bhatia, V. (2005). High prevalence of vitamin D deficiency among pregnant women and their newborns in northern India. The American journal of clinical
nutrition, 81(5), 1060-1064.
Salman, M. (2010). Grading systems and rice quality control. Padiberas Nasional Berhad.
© COPYRIGHT
UPM
79
Salman, M. (2017). Cabaran dan Potensi Pengeksportan Beras Tempatan
Secara Komersil. Paper presented at National Paddy Conference,
Kuala Lumpur.
Syahrin, S., Rosnani, H., Nor Amna Aliah, M.N., Nik Rozana, N.M. (2016). Kajian
penilaian semula peluasan skim subsidi harga padi dan harga minimum terjamin. MARDI Serdang.
Sterman, J. D. (2004). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a
complex world. New York: Irwin/McGraw-Hill.
Tasrif, M. (2013). Workshop in System Dynamics: The methodology and
applications of system dynamics. Institute of Agricultural and Food
Policy Studies (IKDPM), UPM. 5-8 November.
Tasrif, M. (2005). Lecture/course Modules Policy Analysis using System
Dynamics Model (in Indonesia). Bandung: Program Magister Studi
Pembangunan Institut Teknologi Bandung.
Thongrattana, P. T., & Robertson, P. W. (2008, December). The impact of uncertain environment on rice supply chain performance in Northeast Thailand. In Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management,
2008. IEEM 2008. IEEE International Conference on (pp. 1860-1864).
IEEE.
Tengku Mohd Ariff Tengku Ahmad and AriffinTawang (1999). Effects of trade liberalization on agriculture in Malaysia: Commodity aspects. Working
Papers Series No. 46, CGPRT Centre, Bogor.
Wong, L. C., Emrus, S. A., Bashir, B. M., & Tey, J. Y. (2010, June). Malaysian padi and rice industry: Applications of supply chain management approach. In Proceedings of the National Rice Conference Theme:
Strengthening Food Security Through Sustainable Rice Production, June (pp. 28-30).
Yaman, B. (2007). System dynamics: systemic feedback modeling for policy analysis. Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS): 1131-1174: Developed under the Auspices of the UNESCO, Eolss Publishers, Paris, France, [http://www.eolss.net]