The fashion system is a dialogue between professionals in the fashion industry, who propose innovations, and consumers, who selectively adopt the created innovations. In the previous chapter, consumers’ roles in fashion adoption were discussed, along with various product and consumer attributes that affect acceptance and rate of adoption of new fashion products. In this chapter, the process and the methods of fashion trend analysis and forecasting as a starting point for product development are discussed. The process of fashion trend analysis and forecasting is represented by a new model with three components: environment, product, and market.
Trend analysis and forecasting as the beginning stage in the product development process Forecasting new trends in fashion is complex and difficult, because fashion is con- stantly changing and because it is affected by numerous factors. Professionals in the textile and apparel industry begin predicting trends about two years before a particular style is marketed. Clarifying where trend analysis and forecasting are positioned in the product development process before moving on to a discussion of the process of fashion trend analysis and forecasting will give readers an idea of its role in product development.
Facing shorter fashion cycles, increasingly sophisticated consumers, and heavy retail competition, traditional retail buyers have a role in creating products at the retail level; they exert their influence through their product development divisions (Gaskill, 1992). A retail product development division is responsible for the con- ceptualization, planning, development, and presentation of product lines (Gaskill, 1992); it tries to better understand its target market in order to interpret and pro- pose the trends for a season on the basis of projected consumer preferences (Johne & Snelson, 1990; Sproles, 1979).
Wickett, Gaskill, and Damhorst (1999) tested the validity of Gaskill’s (1992) Product Development Model and modified the stages in the original model based on new data. As shown in Figure 3.1, nine activities are incorporated into the model. The preliminary stage of product development begins with an in-depth “trend analy- sis,” labeled “inspirational search of trends,” which was added by Wickett et al. to the revised model. During this stage, ideas for products are collected from a variety of sources. As part of their in-depth search for sources of inspiration, planners give care- ful consideration to seasonal predictions related to color, fabrication, surface design, silhouette, style, and the overall direction of fashion. Once trends are researched, the collected items, such as photographs, magazine clippings, and fabric samples, are brought together for further analysis. Keeping in mind criteria such as the company’s image, its target customer, and its strategic plans, planners develop seasonal themes or concepts in the “theme development” stage. Next, the physical characteristics of the seasonal line are developed to reinforce the seasonal theme. “Palette develop- ment” determines both base and accent groups of colors; then, the “structural fabric decisions” concerning fiber content and fabric structure and “fabric surface design directions” follow. In the next stage, “silhouette and style directions,” silhouettes and styles are decided. After the seasonal line is visualized, “prototype pattern making, construction, and analysis” activity takes place to develop samples of the proposed line. This is followed by “line presentation.” During line presentation, the proposed seasonal line is narrowed down for final “line adoption” into the company’s offering. Throughout the development process, all internal factors, such as the merchandis- ing process and the defined target market, and external factors, such as foreign and domestic markets, impact the development process (Wickett et al., 1999).
a model of the fashion trend analysis and forecasting process As noted earlier, the fashion forecasting process begins about two years in advance of the retailing season for new products. Broadly, this process encompasses the three components of environment, market, and product (see Figure 3.2). First, the envi- ronment is scanned to search for current and near-future trends in the economic, political, social, and cultural (e.g., art, music, fashion) arenas (sectors). An under- standing of the long-term direction of the society can also be helpful. The informa- tion is then analyzed, interpreted, and synthesized. Professionals who are involved in forecasting always observe what is happening both instinctively and consciously.
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the
p
rocess and
m
ethods Figure 3.1 Trend analysis and forecasting as a starting point in the product development process: Wicket, Gaskill, and
Damhorst’s model (1999).
Market research that focuses on consumers, competing companies, and sales re- cords is conducted. As forecasts can vary depending on the characteristics of the target market, it is important to research and understand consumer demographics, lifestyles, values, attitudes, and behaviors. In recent years, consumer segments have diversified into many separate market niches. Different forecasts for individual lines should therefore be developed for specific segments. The activities of competing companies that operate in similar product categories and that compete for similar consumer segments should also be monitored. Over time, this comparison allows for the benchmarking of activities and the development of an accurate view of the market environment. In addition, previous sales records should be analyzed to es- tablish sales trends within the firm. Rising sales statistics implies that the styles are increasingly being adopted; declining sales show that the styles have passed their peak on the consumption curve.
At the stage of forecasting new products for the upcoming season, the evolution of products within a category or across categories is analyzed first to predict the next trends. Then, color, textile, and style trends are researched via various sources, such as trade shows and publications, fashion magazines, and street fashions. Ser- vices that monitor trends are another important source of information. Color pal- ettes should be decided about two years ahead of a retailing season, which is the basis for textile manufacturers’ fiber and fabric production and surface design. Figure 3.2 A model of the fashion trend analysis and forecasting process.
Textile forecasting begins about eighteen months in advance of a retailing season, and style forecasting begins about one year in advance. However, given the current, increasingly short fashion cycle, a shorter forecasting cycle is becoming necessary.
The elements of the trend analysis and forecasting process—environment, mar- ket, and product—in the apparel industry are illustrated in Figure 3.2. For each element, awareness and observation, data searching and information gathering, analysis, interpretation, and synthesis are the different phases of the research process. The multidirectional arrows that link the three elements represent their interconnection.