D ETERMINACIÓN DE LA MORFOLOGÍA Y LA MICROESTRUCTURA POR MICROSCOPÍA ELECTRÓNICA

G L O B A L E C O N O M Y D I S P L AYS I M P R OV E M E N T

The expansion of the global economy gained ground during the course of 2013. Although global gross domestic product (GDP) again rose more slowly than in the previous year at an average of 3.0 % (3.1 %) according to figures published by the International Monetary Fund, the prospects for the global economy improved around the turn of 2013 / 14. Expansion in the US picked up pace once more, while production in the eurozone also increased after one and half years of recession. The eco- nomic dynamics also improved in the emerging markets over the course of 2013. According to the IMF, the global economy is likely to grow by 3.7 % in 2014, which is higher than in 2013.

I M P R OV E D E C O N O M I C AC T I V I T Y I N T H E E M E R G I N G M A R K E T S / B E T T E R P R O S P E C T S I N T H E A DVA N C E D E C O N O M I E S

At 7.7 %, China recorded similarly high economic growth in the reporting year to that of the year 2012. GDP in India increased by 4.4 %, which is a higher rate than in the previous year (3.2 %). While the IMF is forecasting 5.4 % growth for India for the year 2014, which is more than in the previous year, the increase in GDP in China is expected to be 7.5 % for 2014, which represents a fur- ther slight reduction. Following growth of 1.9 % in the reporting year, the IMF expects the US economy to grow at 2.8 % in 2014, the same rate as achieved in 2012. Overall economic performance in the eurozone decreased by 0.4 % in 2013, although Germany was still able to record a 0.5 % increase in GDP in the same year. An increase in GDP of 1.0 % is being forecast for the eurozone in 2014, and German economic performance is likely to increase by 1.6 %.

G L O B A L S T E E L P R O D U C T I O N U P AG A I N I N 2 013 D U E T O G R O W T H I N A S I A / AT T H E S A M E T I M E T H E M AT U R E M A R K E T R E G I O N S O F N O R T H A M E R I C A A N D E U R O P E D E C L I N E D According to data published by the World Steel Association, world crude steel production recorded a 3.5 % year-on-year increase in 2013, which represents a new record level. The growth was primar- ily generated in Asia (6.0 %), while production in Europe (–2.0 %) and North America (–1.9 %) decreased in the year 2013. Despite virtually unchanged output in the year 2013 (–0.1 % relative to 2012), the German Steel Trade Association believes that the German steel industry is in a difficult situation both economically and structurally. For 2014, the Association is anticipating a slight upward movement and an increase in German crude steel production of around 1 %. Based on the results of a survey performed by The Financial Times with 15 analysts from the steel industry, global steel pro- duction is likely to increase by 3.6 % in 2014. Following six years of declining production, Europe is likely to record growth of 2.4 % in the coming year, while the predicted increase in China is fairly moderate at just 4.0 %.

G L O B A L M E C H A N I C A L E N G I N E E R I N G 2 0 13 O N LY S L I G H T LY U P / G E R M A N Y R E C O R D S D E C L I N E I N S A L E S R E V E N U E S A N D P R O D U C T I O N

According to data published by the German Engineering Federation (VDMA), global revenue from engineering is likely to have achieved a real increase of around 1 % in 2013. Based on estimates of the VDMA, China once again has reached the highest growth in sales revenues, although the antici- pated real growth rate of 5 % is still likely to remain well below the 20 % average recorded for many years. The US could also achieve growth of around 1 %. In Germany, a decrease in sales revenues

of around 1 % is anticipated in the reporting year, while machine production is set to decline by around 1.8 % in the year 2013 according to DB Research. For 2014, however, the VDMA anticipates an increase in production in the German mechanical engineering sector of 3 % and a global increase in sales revenues for the sector of 5 % as the global economy continues to show improvement. PA S S E N G E R C A R P R O D U C T I O N I N C H I N A S T I L L O N T H E R I S E / G R O W T H A L S O R E C O R D E D I N T H E U S , S TAG N AT I O N I N E U R O P E

According to data published by the consultancy PWC, global passenger car production increased by 4 % in the year 2013. The most important growth market was once again China with an increase in production of nearly 12 % ahead of the US at 9.1 %. The EU, on the other hand, only managed a marginal increase of 0.2 %, whereby passenger vehicle manufacturing in Germany rose around 1 % in the reporting year according to data published by the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA). For 2014, DB Research anticipates an increase in German passenger car production of 6 %. This forecast is based on the accumulated replacement demand for cars in Western Europe. In terms of global passenger vehicle manufacturing, PWC is also forecasting an increase of around 6 % for the year 2014.

G L O B A L C H E M I C A L S P R O D U C T I O N C O N T I N U E S U P WA R D T R E N D / R E G I O N A L G R O W T H I N A S I A , T H E U S , A N D E U R O P E

According to the Association of the German Chemical Industry (VCI), the upward trend in global chemicals production continued in 2013. Based on information provided by the VCI, the global increase in production in the reporting year was around 4.5 %, and a similar rise is also being forecast for 2014. In 2013, chemicals production primarily increased in China (+ 12.0 %) and other Asian emerging markets, yet also in the US (1 %) and the EU (+ 1.4 %). The VCI also anticipates production increases in 2014 for the aforementioned regions of 10.0 % in China, 2.0 % in the US and 1.5 % in the EU. According to the VCI, German chemicals production rose by 1.5 % in 2013 and is likely to increase by 2.0 % in the year 2014.

* _{Manufacturing industry = producer goods, capital goods, consumer goods.}

Trade, transport and services 28 % Energy and mining 9 %

Automotive industry (vehicle manufacturing and components) 27 %

Agriculture and construction 8 % Engineering 8 %

Manufacturing industry

(including chemicals production)* 20 %

75 G R O U P M A N A G E M E N T R E P O R T

2. 2

G L O B A L L U B R I C A N T M A R K E T O N T H E U P / A S I A R E C O R D S G R E AT E S T R E G I O N A L G R O W T H Global lubricant demand is estimated to have increased by around 1 % in 2013 to a volume of just above 35 million tons. While demand in the Asia-Pacific, Africa region, as well as North and South America each increased by around 1 %, the consumption volume in Europe stagnated at around the same level as in the previous year. According to figures published by the Federal Office of Eco- nomics and Export Control (BAFA), lubricant demand in Germany had increased by around 2 % over the same period in the previous year by November 2013. Based on the positive economic fore- casts of the IMF for the global economy, we expect increasing volumes for the lubricant markets in all regions. In Europe, however, lubricant consumption is only likely to increase slightly, whereas it may increase by around 1 % in the other regions.

2013 35.3 mn t 2012 35.0 mn t 2011 35.1 mn t 2010 34.5 mn t 2009 32.2 mn t D I S T R I B U T I O N O F T H E G LO B A L L U B R I C A N T M A R K E T By regions

Total Asia-Pacific and rest of the world North and South America Europe

18.5 (52 %) 9.9 (28 %) 6.9 (20 %) 18.2 (52 %) 9.9 (28 %) 6.9 (20 %) 18.0 (51 %) 10.1 (29 %) 7.0 (20 %) 17.6 (51 %) 9.7 (28 %) 7.2 (21 %) 16.7 (52 %) 8.7 (27 %) 6.8 (21 %)

Sales revenues (performance)