Despite its insignificant contribution to global warming, Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to the adverse impacts of climate change (Hope, 2009). Many areas in Africa are recognized as having climates that are among the most variable in the world on seasonal and decadal time scales (Boko et al., 2007; Kumssa and Jones, 2010).
In terms of future trends, for the period 2080–2099 annual mean surface air temperature is expected to increase by an average of between 3°C and 4°C compared to the 1980– 1999 period (Boko et al., 2007). Similar projections for the same period indicate an increase in rainfall in tropical and Eastern Africa of more than 7%, (Christensen et al.,
2007; Hope, 2009). Land surface temperature anomalies for the African continent in the past century at decade intervals (1904–2004) shows that the annual mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures have been generally increasing (Hope, 2009), as shown in Figure 2.10. The figure shows that the climate of Africa is definitely warmer that it was a century ago.
The overexploitation of land resources including forests, increases in population, desertification and land degradation pose additional threats (Kumssa and Jones, 2010).
Figure 2.10: Annual mean maximum and mean minimum land surface temperature anomalies for the African continent in the past century at decade intervals (1904–2004).
Source: Hope (2009).
Climate change is an added stress to already threatened habitats, ecosystems and species in Africa, and is likely to trigger species migration and lead to habitat reduction
(Kumssa and Jones, 2010). Future sea level rise has the potential to cause huge impacts on the African coastlines including the already degraded coral reefs on the Eastern coast
National communications indicate that the coastal infrastructure in 30 percent of Africa‘s coastal countries, including the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, Gambia, Egypt, and along the East-Southern African coast, is at risk of partial or complete inundation due to accelerated sea level rise. Future sea level rise also threatens lagoons and mangrove forests of both eastern and western Africa, and is likely to impact urban centres and ports, such as Cape Town, Maputo, and Dar Es-Salaam (UNFCCC, 2007). The poor and marginalized have historically been most at risk, and are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Glacial retreats on major mountains in Africa such as Mount Kilimanjaro and Kenya are
posing challenges to the environment. Scientists have reported 80% decrease in the
volume of glacial ice caps on the mountain in the past century. Scientists warn that if
Mount Kilimanjaro continues to lose its glaciers at the current rate, they may disappear
within the next decade (Kumssa and Jones, 2010). This will reduce water catchment downstream hence adversely affecting biodiversity important for tourism.
In addition, vulnerability to climate change impacts will be most severe when and where there are other non-climate stresses such as environmental degradation, poverty, unequal access to resources, food security and risks from natural hazards (Yohe et al., 2007), as shown in Table 2.1.
Table 2.1: Impacts of climate change in Africa relevant to tourism
Impacts Vulnerabilities Adaptive capacity
Temperature
– Higher warming (x1.5) throughout the continent and in all seasons compared with global average.
– Drier subtropical regions may become warmer than the moister tropics.
Precipitation
– Decrease in annual rainfall in much of Mediterranean Africa and the northern Sahara, with a greater likelihood of decreasing rainfall as the Mediterranean coast is approached.
– Decrease in rainfall in southern Africa in much of the winter rainfall region and western margins.
– Increase in annual mean rainfall in East Africa.
– Increase in rainfall in the dry Sahel may be counteracted through evaporation. Extreme Events
– Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events, including droughts and floods, as well as events occurring in new areas.
Terrestrial Ecosystems – Drying and desertification in many areas particularly the Sahel and Southern Africa. – Deforestation and forest fires. – Degradation of grasslands. – 25–40% of animal species in national parks in sub-Saharan Africa expected to become endangered.
Coastal Zones
- Coastal erosion is already destroying infrastructure and tourism facilities
– Threat of inundation along coasts in eastern Africa and coastal deltas, such as the Nile delta and in many major cities due to sea level rise, coastal erosion and extreme events. – Degradation of marine ecosystems including coral reefs and mangroves off the East African coast.
– Cost of adaptation to sea level rise could amount to at least 5–10% GDP.
- A 30% loss of corals resulted in reduced tourism in Mombasa and Zanzibar, and caused financial losses of about US$12-18 million - 80% of glaciers on Mt Kilimanjaro are gone - Water-pollution-related diseases in low-lying regions (coastal areas)
Research
- Large gaps in research on climate variability and change Generally
- Poleward shift of centres of tourist activity and a shift from lowland to highland tourism
Africa has a low adaptive capacity
to both climate variability and climate
change exacerbated by existing developmental challenges including: – low GDP per capita – widespread, endemic poverty
– weak institutions – low levels of education – low levels of primary health care
– little consideration of women and gender balance in policy planning
– limited access to capital, including
markets, infrastructure and technology
– ecosystems degradation – conflicts