La Decisión Marco 2002/475/JAI del Consejo relativa a la lucha contra el

The majority of mobile internet connections are 2G, and Tanzania’s broadband coverage lags behind its neighbours (see Figure 48). This can be interpreted as meaning that mobile data use is set to grow.

Figure 48: 3G and 4G coverage as % of population (2018)

Source: Okeleke, (2019)

GSMA predicts that mobile data consumption across sub-Saharan Africa will multiply sevenfold by 2024 (from 1.1 to 8.5 GB/subscriber/month) (GSMA, 2019). Although 4G is growing and there is a good deal of excitement about 5G, 3G internet connections are likely to remain the dominant technology for the medium-term future (Figure 49). Indeed, Figure 50 shows the rapid increase over recent years in 3G coverage in Tanzania.

Figure 49: Breakdown of mobile internet connections by technology

Source: GSMA, (2019)

Mobile phones, nutrition, and health in Tanzania: Business modelling endline report

Figure 50: Connected and unconnected populations in Tanzania

Source: Okeleke, (2019).

The influence of over the top (OTT) services continues to grow. In 2017, 20% of adults in Tanzania used social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter (Pew Research Center,2018). Use has grown by one-third over the three years from 2014 to 2017.

Esselaar and Stork (2018) argue that with data-driven business models, increased revenue from data services can more than make up for any decline in voice revenue from OTT services. They present financial data from MTN Ghana as an example of a data-centric business model. Figure 51 shows how data have generated an increasing share of total revenue, to the point where they are likely to generate more revenue than traditional voice and SMS.

Entertainment services drive a good deal of growth in data use. As TVs become more widespread (e.g. demand for solar home systems is often driven by affordable Light Emitting Diode

televisions), the affluent are spending more time watching TV and video on mobile devices.⁵³ This trend in increased TV and video access is an important feature of the changing media landscape in sub-Saharan Africa countries, and may well have implications for public health communication strategies.

53 www.ipsos.com/en/how-digital-driving-media-growth-africa

Mobile phones, nutrition, and health in Tanzania: Business modelling endline report

Figure 51: Breakdown of revenue by service (MTN Ghana)

Source: Authors’ own, based on Esselaar and Stork, (2018)

Smartphone ownership is a key barrier to extending access to mobile internet services. In

Tanzania, smartphone ownership stood at around 13% of adults in 2017, well below the median for sub-Saharan Africa (33%) (Pew Research Center, 2018). Smartphone sales are on the rise, and GSMA estimates that the number of handsets will more than double from 2018 to 2025. Adoption of smartphones in remote rural areas is likely to be relatively slow, not only because of poor data network coverage, but also because of the relatively poor battery life offered by cheap

smartphones. Pew research shows that although only 13% of adults had smartphones, 25% were using the internet (note that TCRA data suggest the proportion of internet users may be higher, although it does not attempt to identify unique users). This indicates that people find alternative means of accessing the internet, e.g. free Wi-Fi hotspots, and some feature phones can support internet-enabled services. Nevertheless, the falling price of smartphones will continue to

strengthen access to data services: for example, MTN has ambitious plans to sell a $20 ‘smart feature’ phone that uses the KaiOS operating system to create a smartphone user experience providing access to Google and social media apps.⁵⁴

Data services will be instrumental in overcoming literacy barriers, as well as providing a richer information dissemination experience (e.g. audio and video). It is likely, therefore, that the reach and efficacy of mobile health services targeting the poorest will improve once they can be delivered via smartphones. However, poor network coverage means that this is unlikely to be the case within the medium-term future and, in the meantime, voice-based features (e.g. IVR, outbound dialling, call centre) are likely to be the most effective media for engaging with remote and low income communities.

In a mature market, in which almost all potential subscribers are signed up with one MNO or

another, the strategy of VAS is to encourage subscribers on other networks to transfer (churn), and to encourage network subscribers to stay with the MNO that provides a valuable service, rather than switch to competing networks. This applies to most VAS, but not necessarily to Wazazi Nipendeni, as it is available on all of the major networks in Tanzania. The Wazazi Nipendeni service would not, therefore, provide any incentive for a customer to switch network, but it might well encourage them to stay with their current provider.

54 www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/telecoms-and-technology/2018-11-14-mtn-to-offer-entry-level-smartphones-costing-20/

Mobile phones, nutrition, and health in Tanzania: Business modelling endline report

Perhaps the most transformational technology that has blossomed since the baseline report is mobile money. In 2017, 60% of the population had a mobile money account (Okeleke, 2019), and TCRA figures show a 40% increase in accounts over a three-year period from 2016 to 2019. M-Pesa (Vodacom) is the market leader in Tanzania, at 40% market share, and Tigo M-Pesa is second, at 32%. Okeleke (2019) estimates that the value of transactions processed through mobile money services in 2017 was $22 billion, equivalent to almost half of the country’s GDP.

Mobile phones, nutrition, and health in Tanzania: Business modelling endline report