CAPÍTULO II: MARCO TEÓRICO
3.2.4. Delimitaciones Conceptuales Educación
At present, there are a multitude of factors that could prohibit the agreement from succeeding, which include, but are not limited to, the economic effects of COVID-19. The pandemic has all but halted both international trade as well as trade within the EU. Ultimately the EU will need to bail out member states while attempting to prevent additional calls for a referendum to leave the EU from dissenting members such as Italy. Under these conditions, the future of the European Union appears grim.
However, Latin America and in particular Brazil faces dire concerns from the spread of the virus. Brazil is now designated by the World Health Organization as a hotspot for the spread of COVID-19.145 Within Brazil, the national death rate continues to increase at an exponential pace with the country now achieving the second-highest death toll in the world due to COVID- 19.146 With the current approval rating for Bolsonaro reaching as low as 32 percent along with calls for impeachment due to evidence of abuse of power, Bolsonaro may not even last his full term.147 This means that the future of Brazil may be determined by the current vice president, Hamilton Mourão. There is also the possibility that in future elections, Brazil returns to a leftist
145 Carlie Porterfield, “Why Brazil Will Likely Become The Global Coronavirus Hot Spot-If It's Not Already,”
Forbes (Forbes Magazine, May 23, 2020).
146 Tom Phillips , “Brazil Overtakes UK with World's Second-Highest Covid-19 Death Toll,” The Guardian
(Guardian News and Media, June 12, 2020).
147 Valor. “Bolsonaro Tem Reprovação De 44% e Aprovação De 32%, Diz Datafolha.” Valor Econômico. Globo ,
president. This would mean that the poor relationship which Macron faced with Bolsonaro may turn into a relationship with a leader who favors the EU’s environmental policies.
Thus, in the end while the EU is reeling economically from COVID-19, it is important to consider the long game. For example, the EU-Canada deal has yet to be ratified by all
parliaments, and this agreement was concluded in 2014. The economic, as well as the political situation in Brazil, is likely to change due to the chaos and economic effects from COVID-19. This means a future leader may seek an improved environmental policy as well as improved relations with the European Union in order to diversify trade from China.
The EU should use its resources to promote human rights, democracy, and
multilateralism at a time when these pillars appear to be crumbling. The EU should use its market to project its values, and during this health crisis utilizes its humanitarian resources to affect change in areas most affected by the spread of COVID-19 such as Brazil. Promotion of free-trade and the use of aid will provide the means to alleviate the spread of COVID-19 in Latin America and to show the world that the EU supports its partners in the region. Eventually, COVID-19 will pass, and so will populism in the form of Bolsonaro, yet competition with China in Latin America will remain. The EU-Mercosur free-trade agreement allows many European sectors to succeed. However, by allowing its agricultural sector to dominate this deal, the EU risks losing an agreement which gives promise to the idea of inter-regionalism. Only through compromise can the EU achieve its goals of inter-regionalism. Furthermore, increased trade is desperately needed by Mercosur member states especially following the loss of trade due to COVID-19. Thus, through compromise, a step can be taken towards inter-regionalism.
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