CAPÍTULO VII SIMULACIÓN DE DELITO
DELITOS CONTRA LA SEGURIDAD DEL TRÁNSITO SECCIÓN PRIMERA
NFCC refers to the way in which individuals approach and reduce cognitive uncertainty (Kruglanski and Webster, 1996). Findings from the studies in the psychology of individual choice have suggested that individuals with high NFCC are motivated to reduce the discomfort associated with uncertainties in decision-making as fast as possible, usually by seizing on whatever cognitive cues and information is easily available in an effort to achieve clarity. The literature has identified the connections between the individual’s NFCC and DMU∑. Wilson (1971) suggests that an individual’s need for certainty and information may be a good predictor of his decision-making style.
Information sharing has a direct, negative relationship with DMU by virtue of its definition; best practices in information sharing should reduce DMU. High need for information is associated with conservative decision-making. Conversely, low need for
certainty and information is associated with normative decision-making. Individuals with a low need for information may be able to accept uncertain alternatives without
experiencing discomfort. The findings also suggest that individuals with high
dispositional NFCC consider less relevant information before making a judgment, expect to be more confident in their judgment, and to require less time to form it. Williams (1998) offers some solution to the structure problems from his consumer behavior research. He mentions the “intelligence phase” as one solution that involves collecting information, internally and externally, that allows the decision-maker to form a frame of reference concerning the basic issue. Digesting information from multiple sources encourages the consideration of numerous options that otherwise would have gone unnoticed. Brossard (1998) evaluates the behavior of organizations in search of
information during a complex decision process. He sets three phases (recognition of need, search for alternatives, and vendor-selection) used by Moriarty and Spekman (1984) during his interviews. The results indicate that the importance of information sources depends on the phases of the decision process. Their work also indicates that personal commercial sources, such as salespeople and trade shows, are systematically considered more important than impersonal sources, such as advertising in trade publications, sales literature, or news publications during a decision process. Giunipero et al. (1999) examine the use of “tacit knowledge” in making purchasing decisions. Tacit knowledge refers to explicit knowledge that is transferable, informal, systematic language (e.g., practical intelligence, know-how about the real world, a personal competence, or thinking in practice; Nonaka, 1994). The result implies that purchasing managers are willing to use tacit knowledge and common sense in making decisions (e.g., their own experience
and knowledge base). Further, purchasing managers feel comfortable using their own common sense to fill in the gaps caused by incomplete or lacking information.
NFCC varies not only across individuals but also across situations. The tendency toward cognitive closure is elevated in situations in which the importance of taking action and making a decision looms large, such as time constraint situations (Kardes et al., 2002), mental fatigue (Webster et al., 1996), or alcohol intoxication (Webster and Kruglanski, 1994a). For example, people are more inclined to draw
conclusions and avoid uncertainty and ambiguity under time pressure than they would be otherwise. Kardes et al. (2002) also suggest that NFCC moderates the effects of
consideration set evaluation processes on choice deferral in that more choice deferral is found in comparative (vs. singular) judgment tasks with low (vs. high) NFCC. Steckel et al. (2004) proposed that it is crucial to begin a systematic research effort aimed at
understanding the efficacy of reengineering the traditional supply chain under various environmental scenarios where the critical role of human judgment, decision-making, and the interaction between these factors affect the uncertainty. Their findings suggest that sharing information between buyer and supplier is unambiguously beneficial in a step-up demand pattern, however, when the demand pattern was S-shape, sharing information actually hurt performance. Croson and Donohue (2006) suggest that buyer perception of supply disruption risk are not solely a result of operational complications, but also a result of cognitive limitations on the part of managers and difficulties inherent in managing a complex dynamic system. Mannetti et al. (2007) tested their hypothesized interactive effect of NFCC by comparing people with high NFCC to people with low NFCC. They found that high NFCC people perceive the non-status-quo choice as less
“normative” and would produce a larger amount of counterfactual thinking leading to more post decisional regret. Lederer and Smith (1988/89) explore that individual differences play a role in a real-world decision-making task using different levels of aggregation of information. Their finding reveals that experienced managers prefer more rather than less information. They strongly prefer more disaggregate information.
NFCC concepts have been investigated a considerable number of times in relation to information processing and other decision-making variables. A common idea is that those with high NFCC experience discomfort about uncertainty but require less time to make a confident decision. They tend to ignore multiple perspectives and stick to initial conclusions without sufficient adjustments. Their confident decisions may be suitable in a rapid changing business environment, while judgmental errors and biases may be
aggravated with high NFCC. Therefore, it is hypothesized that individuals with NFCC are motivated to reduce DMU∑ based on acceptable perceived risk.
H2. Individuals with NFCC are motivated to reduce DMU∑