DEMANDA MÁXIMA – PERÍODO LLUVIOSO, AÑO 2007

The social attitude of individuals, the way they live and the way they work are very much related with the technological environment. The Internet is shaping a new way of keeping contacts, of participating in political debates and also of studying as well as of the working life.

The Internet users will continue to increase as technological innovations become available (and cheaper) to a wider audience. The Internet is definitely part of the day to day life of the digital natives.

Furthermore, the Internet services are leading Europe to change its approach to working life since it changed the way people do business. The economic crisis is affecting the market labour with

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increasing job losses and an increasing demand for flexible work. Job losses are stimulating entrepreneurship and a new flexible way of conducting business.

At the same time, the Internet is changing the way people purchase products and services. The Internet and the social networks may, as a consequence, take an increasingly commercial flavour and become marketplaces for commercial advertising and business.

Besides, the Internet and the social networks also facilitate mass democracy and participation of a vast audience of people to political and social life and opinion.

In addition, issues such as privacy and consumer protection, cross-border data transferability, trust and confidence, are particularly sensitive in these sectors and are reflected in regulatory barriers to Internet

adoption. The need for security and data protection arise as a huge amount of personal information is socially available to friends but to commercial partners likewise: the risk for the individual user is to lose the control over the availability of personal information to third party entities which may use them for commercial concerns and control.

The increasing relevance of the Internet in the social and economic life will be very much supported and accelerated by the diffusion of the mobile devices and apps.

9.5.1 Eventually big brother

This sub-scenario is dominated by the commercial side of the Internet, driven by multinationals and authoritarian governments. It is centred on the commercial nature that Internet can adopt through the personal information collected over the Social Network: within this theoretical framework, Internet serves as a capturing net in which individuals become potential customers subject to targeted advertisement by commercial entities.

Digital divide problem remains with low income/uneducated population, which are excluded from value added services. Individualism is the key characteristic ruling inter-personal relationships: within this context, innovation and entrepreneurship may find a positive environment to run their business.

The government assistance level is low as individual competition and the entrepreneurial attitude is stimulated: the freelancer working profile find an ideal environment characterized by low bureaucracy level and high possibility to manage working life thanks to the high level of services provided by the Internet.

Based on the stakeholder’s survey, it seems the commercial side of Internet will prevail with respect to the possibility for commercial entities to access personal information through the most famous social networks. Social networks will serve as collectors of personal information used for commercial purposes in order to target consumer behaviour.

Impacts

This sub-scenario shall lead to the creation of employment, especially for commercial and marketing jobs, management of big data.

Likeliness

A very high percentage of respondents to the survey believe that businesses and commercial entities will target social network users in order to understand the evolution and profiles of consumer behavior and in order to better design their marketing policy. This is very likely especially with recovery from the crisis and diffusion of mobile devices.

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This sub-scenario is the most social oriented one and it stimulates the soft side of the Internet. It is based on a collaborative nature of personal and business relationships: it balances the profit nature of the social networks but it also protects individual privacy and enriches the power of Internet services through the collaboration and co-production of individuals. Individual privacy and control over private information is strong enough to face the rising commercial nature of social networks and of the Internet in general.

While the Internet will facilitate social interactions among different people grouping them according to their interests, passions and job, individual mobility and a faster diffusion of mobile devices will positively affect use, access and co-production of the Internet services. This will lead to high level of participation and transparency of all the services delivered on the Internet, accompanied with a high level of knowledge sharing among the citizens.

This sub-scenario may be favoured by a high level of individual mobility and a fast diffusion of mobile devices: mobility may keep people more connected one with the other although physical distance between them increases.

Governments are involved in individual privacy protection and individuals feel comfortable in sharing opinions and personal information through the social networks. The digital divide is not particularly affecting the use of mobile technologies and social cohesion is driven by social networks which can group together individuals according to their own interests.

Impacts

The impact on the demand for e-skills is positive, although not addressed to marketing and commercial jobs but to security and data protection, as well as to the management and production of advanced online services. This social sub-scenario may also stimulate innovation based on individual contribution and initiatives. The rich eco-system of enterprises and public sector providing products and services on the net is likely to produce high quality employment.

Likeliness

Based on the stakeholder interviews, this sub-scenario seems to be less likely than the previous one. It may take place with a recovery path from the crisis accompanied by a pro-active innovation policy.

9.5.3 Extreme fragmentation

This third possible sub-scenario is based on a combination of the previous sub-scenarios. It is based on a patchwork EU society where a number of countries or European regions are characterised by the commercial domination of the Internet and other countries are dominated by a no-profit knowledge sharing of the Internet.

Such a sub-scenario is characterized by a high level of uncertainty with mixed levels of mass democracy and participation. The digital divide is going to be high especially in some geographical areas so that the social interaction will still be limited to some specific ages and social groups. In the areas with high levels of digital divides and limited diffusion of mobile devices, the social technologies will not support social interaction among ages and social groups. The multinationals exploiting the commercial opportunities of the social networks will be limited while where the digital divide will be lower, the participation of the citizens to the Internet for mass democracy and cooperation may be more higher. Sensitivity to privacy and data protection will be relevant only where the digital divide is low and the population is aware of the potential power of the network as a common space of knowledge sharing.

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This fragmentation will contribute to a limited diffusion of knowledge and innovation through the Internet. The use of the networks for the development of entrepreneurship will be limited to some specific areas. In most of the European countries, there will be a fragmentation of the Internet into some proprietary segments dominated by leading global companies while the Internet as a common space for knowledge will emerge only in few areas.

Likeliness

This sub-scenario may take place in case Europe will be characterised by different recovery and development speed so that this may be likely in the first forecasting period. The second forecasting period should be characterised by more convergent growth path so that the social sub-scenario should as well converge to a similar model.