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The latest economic data and market surveys confirm that the Euro-zone and its principal trading partners are going through a prolonged period of major economic slowdown, made worse by a persistent and exceptionally high level of uncertainty. The latest forecasts for 2009 have revised down economic growth in the Euro-zone to around -2.5%, with only a slight recovery in 2010. Inflationary pressures are diminishing in the Euro-zone. Annual inflation could come down even more in coming months, mainly because of the underlying effects of past trends in energy prices, and by mid-year it could reach a very low level indeed. However, inflation is expected to start increasing again in the second half of the year because of the same underlying effects.

As for the Italian economy, the signs are that 2009 will also be a year of recession. GDP is expected to contract by around 2.5% relative to 2008, the same amount currently estimated for the Euro-zone as a whole. The additional contraction in economic activity in 2009 will be mostly determined by the strong adverse impact bequeathed by the downturn in the last part of 2008 to the current year. Furthermore, the most recent economic indicators, especially in the first part of 2009, reveal a situation dominated, with few exceptions, by negative signs. There are a few weak signs of improvement in consumer confidence, thanks to the rapid retreat in inflation, while the news relating to industrial activity continues to be very bad. In fact, business confidence is at an all-time low, affected by a fresh shrinkage in order books for both the domestic and export markets, while there is a continued increase in the number of businesses that are practising forms of credit rationing to others.

As for credit markets, the outlook is equally difficult and uncertain for the whole of 2009, due not only to the slower growth in volumes intermediated but also to the expected reduction in

intermediaries will probably continue to be severely affected throughout 2009 by the effects of the liquidity crisis exploding in 2008. This factor, combined with the deterioration in the macroeconomic environment will cause a further slowdown in the growth in bank lending. With continued lack of confidence on the interbank market, the need for banks to satisfy their funding requirements should carry on supporting the growing trend in direct funding from traditional channels, especially from bonds. The worsening economic scenario will cause an increase in problem loans (watchlist and non-performing) both in the household and corporate segments, with a consequent rise in risk indices. As regards the asset management sector, the liquidity needs of banking intermediaries and continued high demand for government debt securities by savers should penalize net inflows to funds and personal asset management, causing another contraction in volumes, which are expected to start rising only in 2010. The profitability and efficiency of the banking system is expected to worsen in 2009 relative to 2008, basically because of a contraction in net interest and other banking income and an increase in adjustments, only partly offset by greater focus on reducing operating costs. Income, in particular, could be affected by reduced volumes of lending and a reduction in the spread between bank lending and borrowing rates, as well as by another decrease in asset management revenue.

In this decidedly unfavourable context that is opening up for 2009, the BPVi Group is seeking to face the risks and operational difficulties with prudence, but also with reasonable optimism, in compliance with the values of a co-operative bank at the service of its territory. The level of capitalization achieved, considered adequate and reassuring, and the policy of reducing liquidity risks, implemented by developing “traditional” direct funding from customers and using and increasing the quantity of securities that can be refinanced with the ECB, should make it possible to provide constant support to companies and individuals, through a growth in lending, albeit selectively, by exploiting the competitive advantage typical of local banks, based on their extensive knowledge of local business, supported by the new methods and instruments for more effective credit risk management described in this report. The Parent Bank's Board of Directors has approved a budget which forecasts loans to grow by more than 10%, dependent on the Group's ability to finance this with direct customer deposits. A key contribution to the Group's profitability should nonetheless come, as predicted in the Business Plan 2008-2011 and confirmed in the Budget for 2009, from enlargement of the customer base, full operation of the new branches, resulting from recent internal and external-led growth, and from full exploitation of the strategic partnerships in the sectors of insurance/pensions and asset management. There nonetheless continue to be high risks relating to the economy and strong uncertainties over the recovery in financial markets, which could cause a higher-than-expected level of adjustments and an insufficient contribution from trading activity, with a consequently negative impact on the Group's earnings. In summary,

as stated in the Budget for 2009, the BPVi Group considers that it is adequately “equipped” to face the risks and uncertainties of the current year and to continue effectively pursuing its corporate mission, with the achievement of another positive set of results in 2009.