A sample of individuals who commenced looking for work during the first wave of SEUP - from 4 September 1994 to 3 September 1995 - and were not working at the same time was drawn from the jobseeker and PRG sub-samples.2 Persons aged under 20 and individuals who were full- time students at any time through the entire data period to September 1997 were excluded. Individuals who left the survey before the end of the three year period were also dropped. The drawn sample included 1429 persons.
For each individual, information about his/her labour market experience over the three year period to September 1997 was obtained from the episode data of SEUP. These included details about every spell of work, time out of the labour market and spell of job search. Data on work episodes included job characteristics such as weekly pay, hours of work, casual/permanent status, occupation, industry and firm size. Information on whether the job was in the individual’s preferred occupation, on desired hours of work and on reasons for leaving a job were also available for each work episode. Details about employer provided training were matched to the labour market experience data for each person, using specific training records collected in SEUP. These records included information about when training was provided, the amount of training and whether individuals were helped in terms of promotions or new jobs by the training. Individual demographic characteristics, including information about labour market history since leaving full-time education, were also available for each person.
Patterns of job turnover are investigated in this chapter by examining information about post-unemployment jobs.3 Individuals initially unemployed during the first wave of SEUP were traced through time until they found their first job.4 They were then categorised into four job groups. Three of these were those who secured low paid wage and salary work, those who found a higher paid wage and salary job and those who exited unemployment for non-wage and salary work as employers, own account workers or workers in a family business.5 The fourth group comprised those who found no employment at all over the period to September 1997.
Of the 1429 persons in the sample, 84 per cent or 1202 individuals had found a job by September 1997. The remaining 227 comprised the fourth group who did not find work at all over the period. Reflecting the results of Chapter 5, a high percentage (41 per cent or 493) of individuals who found employment had their first spell of work in a low paid job. Just under half (46 per cent or 558) went straight into higher paid employment with the remaining 13 per cent or 151 entering non-wage and salary employment.
Appendix A6.1 presents the demographic characteristics of the individuals in the sample. These data show that, as expected, the total sample of initially unemployed persons comprised a disproportionate number of younger adults who had not completed the highest level of secondary education. Similar proportions of males and females were in the sample and about one third had never been married. The breakdown of characteristics by job group also was consistent with what would be expected. Those who found no employment at all over the data period were more likely to be persons aged over 50 and individuals with the lowest educational qualifications. Persons born overseas from non- English speaking backgrounds were also less likely to find employment. Consistent with
2
Only 103 individuals who were in the PRG and not in the jobseeker sub-sample were included. 3
Taking only the first job avoids the potential bias from having multiple spells for some individuals. These may have particular characteristics which make them more likely to have unstable work patterns.
4
If more than one job was taken up simultaneously, then the jo b with the most hours was regarded as the main job and the one included in the sample.
5
Whether the wage and salary employment was low paid was calculated by dividing the reported weekly wages and weekly hours worked on the job. Weekly wage data were collected in the episode data in bands of $40 per week. The midpoint of each category was used as the estimate of the weekly wage.
the results of Chapter 4, the low paid were more likely to be young, never married and persons with low educational qualifications. The higher paid group were generally those with higher education levels, were middle aged and less likely to be living in a low socioeconomic area of residence.
Table 6.1: Duration to First Job of the Initially Unemployed
Per cent who found employment withinFirst Job Sample Size Average Duration 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months 18 Months
Low paid wage &
salary employment 493 35.4 30.8 50.3 66.1 76.7 88.0 Higher paid wage &
salary employment 558 32.8 32.6 55.2 70.4 79.0 90.1 Non wage and salary
employment a 151 28.1
Did not find job 227 - Total sample 1429
a. Includes persons who are employers, own account workers and contributing family workers.
For individuals who found employment, Table 6.1 reports the length of time taken to find their first job. For those who entered wage and salary employment, the distribution of this duration is also presented. These data show that over three quarters of the individuals who found employment did so within the first year. The average duration of unemployment for those who found low paid and higher paid work was similar at about 8 months while the median duration was around 6 months.6 Over time, the rate at which individuals found employment declined suggesting that the likelihood of leaving decreases with the duration
6
Substantial differences in calendar start times may affect the comparisons of employment spells due to differences in the prevailing economic conditions. The calendar time distribution of job starts for the low paid and higher paid job spells over the data window were compared and found to be similar.
of unemployment. This negative duration dependence is a result common to many empirical studies of unemployment duration7 (Pederson and Westergard-Nielson 1993).