Systems, 16 August 2011, CF Bentley
Conference Center, ICRISAT-Patancheru,
Andhra Pradesh 502 324, India.
Extreme weather events are already affecting agricultural systems around the world. As global temperatures continue to rise, the pace of environmental change will likely be unprecedented. More frequent and intense precipitation events, elevated temperatures, droughts, floods and other types of damaging weather are all expected to take its tolls on crop yield and quality – making the challenge of feeding an estimated 9 billion people in the world by 2050 exceedingly difficult.
But much more than crop yield and quality, climate change will have far-reaching consequences for agriculture that will disproportionately affect poor and marginalized groups who depend on the sector for their livelihoods and have a lower capacity to adapt. Climate-related crop failures, fishery collapses and livestock deaths already cause economic losses and undermine food security, and these are likely to become more severe as global warming continues. A recent study estimates the annual costs of adapting to climate change in the agricultural sector to be over US$ 7 billion.
The effects of climate change are more likely to be felt in the semi-arid tropics – home to the deepest pockets of poverty on earth – and where rainfed agriculture is the life line for most small and marginal farmers. A recent study assessing rainfed cereal potential under different climate change scenarios revealed loss of rainfed production potential by 10-20% expected to affect 1-3 billion people by 2080, mostly in the tropical developing countries.
Amid the looming threat of climate change, this discussion aims to address a crucial challenge for all of us – how to evolve adaptation and mitigation strategies to manage the risk and protect the livelihoods of small and marginal farmers who predominate in the rainfed regions.
The relationships among climate change, agriculture and food security are complex and dynamic. But only by understanding this can we come up with solutions, open untapped opportunities to meet the challenge, and devise short-, medium- and long-term adaptation and mitigation strategies. For the most vulnerable people in the tropical developing countries dependent on rainfed agriculture, we need to look at not only the technological but also the social and institutional mechanisms in building the resilience, particularly of resource-poor communities.
ICRISAT’s ADB-funded project “Vulnerability to climate change: Adaptation strategies and layers of resilience,” is a step towards this direction of understanding the impacts of climate change on the rural poor and most vulnerable farmers in the semi-arid regions of Asia. The project focuses on identifying climate variability (and other related factors) that may be influencing changes in cropping pattern, structures of income and employment, and adaptation-coping strategies of the rural poor in the semi-arid tropics. It shall also seek to identify strategies to address socioeconomic problems relating to changing weather patterns and availability of a range of initiatives for their alleviation. These, along with best practices and
institutional innovations for mitigating the effects of climate change, constitute a multi-dimensional perspective in addressing climate change.
Through the research-for-development initiatives of our Institute, we hope to be able to provide science-based solutions and pro-poor approaches for adaptation, particularly of agricultural systems to climate change.
We believe that to reduce the vulnerability of the smallholder farmers to climate change, we must create a sustainable, inclusive, resilient, profitable and healthy agricultural sector.
At ICRISAT, we believe that this path involves stimulating agro-enterprises to raise rural incomes and create opportunities beyond agriculture. Smallholder farm families have to be empowered and assisted along this development pathway to lead them from pessimism to prosperity. We call this Inclusive Market-Oriented Development (IMOD), a dynamic progression from subsistence towards market-oriented agriculture which will achieve a new level of access to resources, stability and productivity for poor smallholder farmers.
Again, the emphasis of climate change mitigation is to come up with a basket of solutions applicable to different agro-eco typologies and socioeconomic situations in the tropical drylands.
We have come up with science-based and sustainable solutions that have proven what we call “a Hypothesis of hope.” This hypothesis clearly indicates that we can bridge the gap between the farmers’ yield and achievable potential yield to ensure improved food production and livelihoods for the farmers. This, we can do by integrating the adoption of our climate-resilient crops and various soil, water and nutrient management strategies with supporting policies and institutions.
Emerging science tools such as remote sensing, modeling and conventional natural resource management technologies will have to be integrated with social and policy interventions to achieve the desired results.
Our approach in building a climate-change resilient rainfed agriculture is holistic.
Our research-for-development work will have to be integrated deeply along with that of development workers, policymakers and small and marginal farm holders to achieve the goal of improving livelihoods of millions of poor people in the climate change scenario.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have today an excellent distinguished panel and also distinguished participants. I am sure that this roundtable discussion initiated by the JSW-Times of India Earth Care Award will bring out critical areas which need urgent attention along with a roadmap to operationalize suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies for overcoming the impacts of climate change on rainfed agriculture, not only in India, but in the whole world as well.
I wish all of you a very fruitful deliberation ahead, and may you have a comfortable and pleasant stay here in ICRISAT.
Thank you and have a good day!