Destrezas Comunicativas

The aim of this thesis is to explore a possible way in which a European regulatory framework on crisis management for commercial spaceflight organisations can be created. To attain this goal, this thesis will try to answer its research question through a qualitative research method. This thesis will be have a exploratory nature, as from interviews with experts it has been deduced that no European commercial spaceflight organization exists that has produced, tested and operated a fully functional commercial spacecraft or even developed crisis management procedures in the case of an accident. Most interviewed experts agree that no fully commercial European spacecraft will be developed for at least ten to fifteen years (Several interviews with experts November and December 2017). Therefore a case study of the current status of crisis management among European spaceflight organisations is not feasible.

Because of this lack of real-world cases that can be examined, the design of the study will thus be of an exploratory nature. It will begin with exploring the current division of CM tasks in commercial spaceflight among public and private actors. Each following chapter of the analysis will address one of the four element of effective crisis management; crisis preparedness, crisis prevention, crisis event management and post- crisis management. It first will be determined for each element of crisis management in what way it is desirable to divide roles and responsibilities among public and private actors. It then will examine any formulated policies and regulations for commercial spaceflight in the EU on mandatory CM tasks for private actors. Early on in the process of writing this thesis it became clear that crisis management elements for commercial spaceflight are non-existent or marginal at the least in European policies and

regulations. Therefore it has been decided to look at the most extensive formulated regulations and guidelines for commercial spaceflight organizations, that of the United States. The practical outcome of these policies will be examined through interviews with American-Dutch commercial spaceflight organisation, XCOR and interviews with other experts. The exploration of formulated CM regulations and guidelines in the EU and United States will be done in a thematic manner, per element of crisis management.

3.2 Data collection

In order to answer the research question, empirical evidence has been gathered. Data has been be collected for this purpose in two different ways: through the study of the available literature in the form of policy papers, written legislature, academic papers, handbooks and journalistic articles and through interviews with experts in the field of crisis management, EU policy makers and employees of space organisations that

involved with the crisis management within that organisation. With this combination of written and perceived truth, this thesis will try to triangulate in to what extent certain CM aspects should be the responsibility of private actors and should made mandatory through regulations. This is the most feasible way in absence of an actual truth, a real- world case. It then will try to determine to what extent the current European and

American policies and regulations are complete enough to ensure effective management of future crises involving commercial actors in space.

Several experts have been interviewed, most of them are working at an

organization occupies itself activities that are related to spaceflight. Two space safety experts from the International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS) have been interviewed. Also an employee of American commercial spaceflight

organisation XCOR and an expert on European space policy from the European Space Policy Institute (EPSI) have contributed their views to this research. A consultant specialized in aviation law and regulations and who is currently is creating regulations for commercial spaceflight from the island of Curacao has been interviewed for insights into similarities and differences between aviation and spaceflight. For expertise in the field of crisis management a crisis management consultant as an expert on crisis

management in general and an expert on crisis management within spaceflight from ESA have been interviewed. Each expert has been interviewed with the same interview protocol, which consists of questions about the current state of CM policy and

regulations for commercial spaceflight organisations in Europe and the United States and the institutions that govern these policies and regulations. Furthermore, experts have commented on the aspects of CM that have been put forward by the theoretical framework.

3.3 Data analysis

This thesis follows a qualitative paradigm and the analysis of the data will be carried out accordingly. Empirical evidence from the analysis of documents and interviews will be obtained and analysed in a comparative manner. The analysis will be done through the theoretical framework presented in the previous chapter. The overall qualitative analysis will be divided in the four components of effective crisis management. Each component will be analysed in separate chapters. As already has been stated, in each chapter it will first be determined for each element of crisis management in what way it would be desirable to divide roles and responsibilities among public and private actors. This will be determined based on the comments of interviewed experts. After this, the existing European regulations and guidelines for commercial spaceflight will be

examined on existing CM requirements. The analysis will resume with an examination of regulations and guidelines in the United States. This part will rely mostly on the analysis of available documents and will be complemented with comments of interviewed

experts. Each chapter of the main analysis will end with a conclusion in which the desirable division of tasks and responsibilities of the examined element of crisis management will be summarized.

Interviews have been done by face-to-face interviews in person or via Skype. These interviews gave the opportunity for more in-depth insights into the current state of crisis management policies and regulations for commercial spaceflight organizations in Europe and the United States. By adding first-hand experiences of experts in the field this thesis gains a lot more validity and insights into the current situation in practice. The interviews were structured with help of an interview protocol, the interview results can be found in appendix A. The interview protocol has not been followed too precise, allowing for the interviewee to venture through their thoughts and come up with deeper insights into the current situation and possible ways forwards. When sometimes the interviewee went too astray while expressing their thoughts, the interview protocol helped the interview to get back on track.

3.4 Reliability and validity

Through the analysis of both the current legislative situation in Europe and the United States, this thesis has come up with some interesting comparative insights between the various policy and legislative documents on both continents. This multi-case approach

gives it quite some external validity. Furthermore, the interviews with several experts in the field have given first-hand insights in the current situation concerning the

development of crisis management policies and regulations in Europe and the United States. However, because of the exploratory nature of this thesis, there are some limitations in validity and reliability of the research.

3.4.1 Validity

Internal validity is about the validity of the research itself, is it based on representative samples or is there much bias in the research? Are there no confounding factors in the study? (Drost 2011: 115). The means of measurements, the study of policy documents and expert interviews give the research some internal validity, as the comparison

between what is formulated on paper and what is being done in practice give some valid insights into the relation between theory and practice. However, because interviews are used as the main source of current practice, it is prone to some level of bias. Because the number of interviewees is not very high, personal opinion and biased views can

influence the outcome of this thesis. However, it is the view of the author that not much more experts could have been interviewed in the given time for conducting the research, as there are not much experts to be found in the specific field of crisis management for commercial spaceflight. Moreover, the collection of data from the field has been

hindered by limited number of commercial spaceflight companies in the United States and especially in Europe. The limited approachability of major companies like SpaceX and Virgin Galactic has prevented this thesis to collect more valuable data. Furthermore, because of the sensitive nature of crisis management documents and also because of protocols and treaties that prohibits the exchange of these kinds of sensitive security data and technical details of rockets (for example ITAR), it has been even more difficult to extract valuable data from the field. However, it is the opinion of the author that the extracted data and insights obtained through the conducted interviews give the research quite some level of internal validity.

External validity is about the extent to which a study can be generalized to other persons, settings and times (Drost 2011: 120). The multi-case approach, by examining both the situation in Europe and the United States, gives some external validity to this thesis. When not changing the time and settings in which this study has been conducted, the external validity is quite high, as there are currently not much other settings in

which commercial spaceflight is currently developing. This limited number of cases gives the thesis in the current situation a high level of external validity. The current developed policies and regulations for commercial spaceflight in the United States are by far the most advanced in the world and the US is currently the only country where the commercial spaceflight industry has matured to any significant level. However, because the present situation within commercial spaceflight is changing rapidly, with new many initiatives being set up in the US and other countries, over time the finding of this thesis will become less valid. Moreover, when in the future in other major

spacefaring countries like Russia, China and India a commercial spaceflight industry arises, it begs the question if the development of these industries will go the same way as the United States and Europe and will encounter the same problems. Political and cultural differences will probably steer the development in a different direction and it probably will encounter different problems.

3.4.2 Reliability

The reliability of a study is about the extent in which the results of this study are repeatable if the same measurements are done by different persons, on different

occasions, under different conditions with allegedly different instruments (Drost 2011: 106). The reliability of the results of this thesis is limited through the means of data collection (interviews) and the rapidly changing environment in which this data is collected. Because in-depth interviews with experts are prone to subjective factors like biased views of the interviewee, the mood of the interviewee at the time of the interview or the understanding of the interviewee of the questions that are being asked it is

possible that repeating these interviews with other interviewees will give different results. Furthermore, the interviewee’s statements are prone to the interpretation of the person conducting the interview. However, the interviews show similar reappearing responses to the questions of the interview indicating that if currently repeated, this study will show the same results. Nevertheless, because commercial spaceflight is an industry wherein the situation is changing very quickly over the months and years, in time the repetition of this study will probably give different results.