Summary
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(See Page 61 of Consolidated Working Papers for further detail)
Section 1: Vision
By 2015 the National Directorate of Macroeconomics will carry out comprehensive research, economic analysis and advise the government, on all issues that will impact the Timorese economy, be they current or future government policy, changes in the international economic environment, or internal sectoral issues.
Section 2: Strengthening Core Functions
Below are the Core Functions that National Directorate of Macroeconomics will be performing in 2015 together with the standards to which those functions will be performed. National Directorate of Macroeconomics will progressively improve its capacity to perform these functions to the standard specified by implementing the Key Improvements listed in Section 3 below.
Performance of the Core Functions will be monitored through the activities of the Annual Action Plan.
Section 3: Implementing Key Improvements
Below are the Key Improvements that will be implemented to strengthen the performance of the Core Functions and the major steps needed to achieve them.
Performance indicators identify the level of improvement to be achieved and the contribution (where applicable) to the Government’s Strategic Development Plan (SDP).
Core Function Performance Standard
Macroeconomic analysis
Analysing and recommending policies for the promotion of economic growth and the reduction of poverty
• Macroeconomic analysis takes account of all relevant trends and data
• Projections are made through a prudent, logical and formulaic process. Recommendations aim to promote development, growth and reduce poverty in Timor-Leste
Reporting of economic trends
Issuing opinions and studies in relation to public and private sectors, structural reforms, salaries, financial markets, monopolies, investment and capital formation
• Opinions and studies taking into account the prevailing domestic socio-economic conditions and international economic
environment, particularly as it relates to Timor-Leste.
• They are provided in a timely manner, in accordance with set processes and procedures.
Assist in developing RDTL policies
Measuring growth in Timor-Leste’s economy.
• Estimates of growth and other macroeconomic related variables are accurate and prepared in accordance with international best practice.
MoF SP 2011-2030
ATTACHMENT 2
Key Improvements Major Steps Performance Indicator and
Contribution to SDP 1. Expansion of and complete handover of Macroeconomic Framework from international staff to national staff.
• International staff to create user guide (and engage in on-the-job training with national staff.
• Improve Wage inflation survey, expand and make an annual or twice annual event in order to supplement CPI data in forming the deflator in GDP estimation.
• Expansion of the Ministry of Finance requires more (accurate) data on donor funding, monetary aggregates, private investments and private construction works.
• Train newly recruited staff
National Staff independently updating the Macroeconomic Framework, for all variables
2. Provide useful policy analysis to assist the Ministry of Finance decision-making across departments.
• Establish the needs of other areas of Ministry of Finance in terms of policy recommendations, economic studies and data analysis.
• Ensure good quality data is in place to facilitate the formation of accurate and sound reports and analyses.
• Able staff must work alongside staff who requires training in analysing data to produce outputs.
Increased number of high quality policy papers or economic studies submitted to Minister and relevant Directorates.
3. Faster and more efficient data collection. More quality data through systems that create streamlined databases on economic and fiscal variables to facilitate accurate policy recommendations and studies.
• Develop staff capacity in understanding data requirements and sourcing good quality data. • Recruit staff to seek data from many sectors of
the economy, trained on-the-job by existing staff, unless qualified staff can be recruited.
Expansion of the Macro Framework to include more variables.
More staff engaging in data collection
Economic outputs from NDME focusing on a broader range of economic variables.
4. A budget process better informed by macroeconomic analysis.
• Align Directorate’s analysis with inputs that will benefit and enrich the work of the Budget Directorate.
• Increase cooperation with Budget Directorate during the budget process to ensure that all their outputs are consistent with our Directorate’s economic analysis.
Analysis and recommendations from NDME are clearly reflected in the budget design.
5. Increased analytical output regarding tax structure and economically optimal rates.
• Increased cooperation with General Directorate Revenue and Customs to ensure that a holistic analysis of optimal taxation design is being carried out on an ongoing basis.
• Establish joint working committees with General Directorate Revenue and Customs, and others as required in order to unsure taxation policy and other crossover issues are managed in a economically logical and practical fashion.
Well-informed papers reaching General Directorate Revenue and Customs from NDME by deadlines set internally.
6. Improve capacity to make projections and forecasts of various economic variables.
• Increase staff capacity to utilise data and past trends to predict future outcomes. This would involve a combination of hiring qualified candidates and providing training and capacity building to existing staff.
Forecasts of GDP and projected revenue streams being produced by national staff, as well as other variables such as inflation being forecast and published, together
MoF SP 2011-2030