4.4.1 Overarching categories of themes
Over half of the total themes observed in the advertising material of both campaigns related to structural considerations (see Table 4).
Nearly a third of the ERC pro-MMP advertising and over half of the CBG advertising focused on structural themes. However, values-based themes were almost wholly used by the ERC. Only one advertisement from the CBG advertising included a value-based theme.
The overall volume of advertising produced by the campaigns appears to be fairly balanced, with 42 percent of the total number advertisements coming from the CBG, and 57 percent of advertisements being produced by the ERC.
Table 4: Total Overarching Themes - Count
CBG ERC Grand Total Structure 37 54 91 Results 26 12 38 Values 1 18 19 64 84 148
Table 5: Total Overarching Themes - Percentage of Campaign
Themes
CBG ERC % of all themes Structure 57.81% 64.29% 61.49% Results 40.63% 14.29% 25.68% Values 1.56% 21.43% 12.16% 100% 100% 100%42
4.4.2 Specific themes observed
Five of the themes observed in the advertising related to structural features such as whether a system provides checks and balances on power, how voters are represented, and the ability of a government to enact its policy. The recent guidance on electoral systems published by Elections New Zealand (in preparation for the 2011 electoral referendum) was used as a framework for categorising these features consistently (McNair, 2000). Following an inductive coding process, the five themes of Accountability, Effective Government, Effective Parliament, Proportionality, and Representation were adopted as a succinct way to convey these principles within the major themes. The other themes observed that relate to the structural features of different systems were Simplicity/Complexity, which speaks to the extent to which a system is simple or complex to understand and the relative merits of having a more simplistic or complex system; and commentary on cost of increasing the number of Members of Parliament (MPs). The latter issue was a particular feature of the 1993 referendum. The proposed number of MPs would remain at 99 if FPP was retained, with adjustments as population size or the Maori electoral roll size changed, but would increase to 120 MPs if the system changed to MMP, with adjustments as population size or the Maori electoral roll size changed or there was an overhang29.
Themes relating to the results or outcomes that would be seen within the nation under a particular system include: the „hidden power‟ of coalition partners, given the propensity for coalition government under MMP and a consideration of how MPs would be selected for party lists; Change (as a positive result in and of itself); and the potential for a particular system to result in negative consequences, adversely affecting the nation‟s future.
Finally, several themes associating particular values with a system were observed. These included statements that associate a system with „everyday New Zealanders‟ or - alternatively – with the academic, political, or business elite, the extent to which a system is seen to be modern or outdated; references to the tactics of the opposing campaign/ers; and references to a system having „widespread support‟, either domestically or internationally.
The total theme counts are set out in Table 6 below.
29 An „overhang‟ in MMP is when “a party wins more electorate seats than it is entitled to by
the overall share of the party vote” (New Zealand Electoral Referendum Panel, 1993), resulting in seats being added to Parliament in order to provide for electorate representation while still maintaining overall proportionality for the party votes.
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Table 6: Total Theme Count
CBG ERC total Representation 8 16 24 Hidden Power 13 7 20 Accountability 9 9 18 Proportionality 0 16 16 Negative Consequences 13 1 14 Effective Government 6 8 14 Cost of Systems 9 4 13 Widespread Support 0 10 10 Simplicity/Complexity 4 0 4
Everyday New Zealanders/Elitists 1 3 4
Change 0 4 4
Campaign Tactics 0 3 3
Outdated/Modern 0 2 2
Effective Parliament 1 1 2
64 84 148
Tables 6 and 7 demonstrate that while together Hidden Power and Representation constituted almost a third of all themes observed, Hidden Power was more commonly featured in CBG advertising, and Representation was more commonly featured in ERC advertising.
Over half of all themes observed belonged to one of four categories: Representation, Hidden Power, Accountability, or Proportionality. There were 10 separate remaining themes.
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Table 7: Themes as Percentage of Total Themes Observed
CBG ERC % of all themes
Representation 5.41% 10.81% 16.22% Hidden Power 8.78% 4.73% 13.51% Accountability 6.08% 6.08% 12.16% Proportionality 0.00% 10.81% 10.81% Negative Consequences 8.78% 0.68% 9.46% Effective Government 4.05% 5.41% 9.46% Cost of Systems 6.08% 2.70% 8.78% Widespread Support 0.00% 6.76% 6.76% Simplicity/Complexity 2.70% 0.00% 2.70%
Everyday New Zealanders/Elitists 0.68% 2.03% 2.70%
Change 0.00% 2.70% 2.70%
Campaign Tactics 0.00% 2.03% 2.03%
Outdated/Modern 0.00% 1.35% 1.35%
Effective Parliament 0.68% 0.68% 1.35%
43.24% 56.76% 100%
Tables 6 and 7 demonstrate that while together Hidden Power and Representation constituted almost a third of all themes observed, Hidden Power was more commonly featured in CBG advertising, and Representation was more commonly featured in ERC advertising.
Over half of all themes observed belonged to one of four categories: Representation, Hidden Power, Accountability, or Proportionality. There were 10 separate remaining themes.
4.4.3 Themes within the campaigns
Despite a smaller number of total themes, when considering the spread of themes within the CBG‟s advertising, the campaign focused on a broad range of themes. These themes included Negative Consequences, Hidden Power, Accountability, Cost
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of Systems, Representation, Effective Government, and Simplicity/Complexity30
(see Table 8).
Over two thirds of all themes observed in the CBG campaign were from the four themes of Negative Consequences, Hidden Power, Accountability, and Cost of Systems. In addition, five of the themes observed in the ERC advertising were not present in the CBG advertising: Campaign Tactics, Widespread Support, Outdated/Modern, Change, and Proportionality.
The CBG also used a much smaller number of themes than the ERC, with only nine themes identified in the content analysis.
Table 8: Campaign for Better Government Themes
count % total campaign Negative Consequences 13 20.31% Hidden Power 13 20.31% Accountability 9 14.06% Cost of Systems 9 14.06% Representation 8 12.50% Effective Government 6 9.38% Simplicity/Complexity 4 6.25%
Everyday New Zealanders/Elitists 1 1.56%
Effective Parliament 1 1.56% Campaign Tactics 0 0.00% Widespread Support 0 0.00% Outdated/Modern 0 0.00% Change 0 0.00% Proportionality 0 0.00%
30 For the purposes of comparability across the two referenda and between campaigns, a theme was considered to be „focused on‟ if the theme was present in more than 10 percent of total for sampled for a campaign‟s advertising.
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The ERC campaign focused primarily on Proportionality, Representation, Widespread Support, and Accountability. Half of the themes observed in the ERC campaign were from the three themes of Proportionality, Representation, and Widespread Support (see Table 9).
The remaining themes observed covered 10 separate categories.
Only one theme – Simplicity/Complexity - featured in CBG advertisements but was not observed in ERC advertisements. In contrast, five themes featured ERC campaign advertisements that did not appear in CBG advertisements: Proportionality, Widespread Support, Change, Campaign Tactics, and Outdated/Modern.
Table 9: Electoral Reform Coalition Themes
count % total campaign Proportionality 16 19.05% Representation 16 19.05% Widespread Support 10 11.90% Accountability 9 10.71% Effective Government 8 9.52% Hidden Power 7 8.33% Change 4 4.76% Cost of Systems 4 4.76% Campaign Tactics 3 3.57%
Everyday New Zealanders/Elitists 3 3.57%
Outdated/Modern 2 2.38%
Negative Consequences 1 1.19%
Effective Parliament 1 1.19%
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4.4.4 Common themes between campaigns
Overall, the four most frequently observed themes were: 1) Representation, 2) Hidden Power, 3) Accountability, and 4) Proportionality. The themes of hidden power and representation were featured in the five most frequently observed themes in each campaign. Hidden Power was one of the two most frequently mentioned themes in CBG advertising, while Representation was one of the two most frequently mentioned themes in the ERC campaign. The CBG advertising did not feature the theme of Proportionality at all, while proportionality was mentioned in more than half of the ERC advertising material (see Table 6).
While it is not surprising, given that these issues speak to the differences between the structures of the MMP and FPP voting systems, this suggests that there was no „counter-message‟ presented to these themes by the other lobby group.
The theme of „Change‟ also emerged as a code for advertising that appealed to the audience to vote for the system that offers change, without any elaboration on why change was preferable. The Change theme is unique in the themes observed in the advertising material, as it refers to the immediate result of shifting to a new electoral system („change‟), but not a long-term result. It also contained no information on why „change‟ is a good idea. While it could be argued that „change‟ is generally viewed as a positive result (as voters wouldn‟t seek change if they were happy with the status quo), more recent political campaigns that have also appealed to the public to VFC followed this statement with an example of what „change‟ will result in. For example, in the United States, „change‟ was a frequent slogan of President Obama‟s 2008 electoral campaign (Grunwald, 2008; Nakamura, 2012), but was usually followed with a statement, such as “Change you can believe in”, evoking concepts such as a change to a trustworthy president, or change that will bear results. In New Zealand, the National Party‟s 2008 electoral campaign also urged voters “It‟s time to change. Party Vote National and Choose a Bright Future” (Laughey, 2007).
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The theme of „campaign tactics‟ captured campaign strategy messages used in advertising, such as commentary on how a campaign was being run, or the credentials or characters of those running the campaign31.