DETERMINACIÓN DE LA VIABILIDAD Y APOPTOSIS CELULAR

The issue can be dealt with in three different ways:

1. An evaluation of the actual transfer of traffic from the ferry line Rødby- Puttgarden to the Great Belt fixed link after opening in June 1998. 2. A model based calculation of the transfer of traffic from the Great Belt

fixed link to the Fehmarnbelt fixed link in the year 2015 (assumed open- ing year).

3. An overall evaluation of the competition relation between the two fixed links based on an evaluation of the transportation costs (incl. tolls) and the time consumption by choosing either of the two routes through Den- mark.

10.2 Results of Earlier Studies

10.2.1 Sund & Bælt Evaluation

Sund & Bælt have investigated the composition of the traffic on the Great Belt fixed link, incl. a calculation of the transfer of traffic from the ferry service Rødby – Puttgarden to the fixed link27_.

In general, surveys have shown that only approx. 3% of the traffic on the Great Belt fixed link has its origin or destination in Germany. The potential transfer of car traffic to a fixed link across the Fehmarn Belt must be consid- ered low.

The calculation shows that the transfer of traffic from the ferry line Rødby - Puttgarden to the Great Belt fixed link in 1998/1999 was as follows:

Passenger cars:

The transfer from the ferry line Rødby-Puttgarden was 1,3 % of the traffic on the Great Belt fixed link in 1999, corresponding to a reduction of 7,8 % for the Rødby - Puttgarden ferries.

Lorries:

The transfer was 2,5 % of the traffic on the Great Belt fixed link corresponding to a reduction of 6,9 % for the Rødby/Puttgarden ferries.

10.2.2 Carl Bro a|s/FTC Evaluation

In May 2000 the Carl Bro a|s made a similar calculation based on the Feh- marn Belt traffic model28_{. The calculation made by Carl Bro a|s illustrates the} opposite process: how much of the traffic on the Fehmarnbelt fixed link in the year 2010 will be traffic transferred from the Great Belt fixed link.

27 _{Sund & Bælt Holding A/S: Konkurrenceforholdet mellem Femer Bælt og Great Belt, notat af 23. oktober}

2002 (in Danish).

28 _{Carl Bro a|s: Trafik over Great Belt i Femerbælt modellen, Notat til Trafikministeriet, dateret 11. maj}

The calculations showed that:

Passenger cars:

The Great Belt fixed link would loose approx. 1,9 pct. of the estimated traffic in the year 2010

Lorries:

The Great Belt fixed link would loose approx. 0,8 pct. of the estimated traffic in the year 2010

10.2.3 Overall Evaluation

The investigation made by Sund & Bælt, which was based on 1500 O/D inter- views with travellers using the Great Belt, has shown that the Great Belt fixed link is most of all used by national Danish transport (approx. 97 %).

On that basis it can be concluded that only customers for whom the availability and flexibility in the transport system played a major role were transferred to the Great Belt fixed link, whereas costumers for whom the transportation cost plays a distinct role still choose the Rødby – Puttgarden route.

Vice versa, it can be concluded that the number of vehicles transferred to a fixed link across the Fehmarn Belt will be quite limited. This was confirmed by the model calculation carried out by Carl Bro a|s.

The main reason for this is that the transport route between Swe-

den/Copenhagen and Hamburg via Rødby-Puttgarden is approximately 150 km shorter, than the route via the Great Belt. The transportation cost for both passenger cars and lorries - in this context defined as the cost per driven kilometre + the fare/toll – is substantially lower for the shorter route via Rødby – Puttgarden (see appendix 4).

After the opening of a fixed link across the Fehmarn Belt the competition rela- tionship is expected to be changed back, as the two fixed links will have the same degree of availability and flexibility.

For a situation with a fixed link across both the Great Belt and the Fehmarn- belt it can, therefore, be expected that the overwhelming part of the passenger car and lorry traffic between Scandinavia and the continent passing through Denmark, as a consequence of the substantially higher cost for using the 150 km longer route via the Great Belt, will choose the Fehmarn Belt fixed link like most of them do today, unless the difference in tolls is very (unrealistically) high.

10.3 Conclusion

It can be concluded that the competition relationship between the Great Belt and a fixed link across the Fehmarn Belt is rather modest. Surveys have indi- cated that only approx. 3% of the road traffic on the Great Belt fixed link has its origin or destination in Germany. Furthermore, evaluations and model cal- culations have shown that the amount of traffic that was transferred from the ferries Rødby - Puttgarden to the Great Belt fixed link after opening in 1998 was approx. 2 %. Correspondingly, this amount can be expected to be trans- ferred back to a Fehmarnbelt fixed link after opening.

The major part of the existing road traffic between Scandinavia (east of the Great Belt) and Northwest Germany passing through Denmark uses the considerably shorter route via Rødby-Puttgarden, because this route is much more cost-effective.

Unless the toll rates on the two fixed links will differ substantially in favour of the Great Belt, this will also be the case after establishment of a fixed link across the Fehmarn Belt.

APPENDICES

1. Detailed Results Passenger Traffic