La determinación sobre base presunta debe guardar razonabilidad a fin de no vulnerar el principio constitucional de capacidad contributiva

The adjustments for under-reporting of economic activities that are legal are made via indirect methods. These can be summarized as follows:

• investigation of input-output ratios among the units within a chosen homogeneous group of economic units at the micro-level, to estimate the degree of over-reporting of intermediate consumption and under-reporting of gross output;

• labour input method (explained in detail in section 3);

• use of demand-side data sources (mostly from the Household Budget Survey) to evaluate the underestimation in retail trade activities and some manufacturing activities (sales and output). Traditionally the HBS shows a bigger amount of expenditures for food consumption than registered retail sales of food. Therefore, the turnover of the retailers and some wholesalers, and the output of related producers are adjusted.

N7 - Other statistical deficiencies

Non-response

The subject matter divisions of the NSI use specific techniques to treat non-response. The adjustments are made at the three digit level of NACE and involve the identification of the number of non-responding units, their activities and number of employees. The average revenue from sales per employee is calculated from the data on responding units with similar activities and number of employees. The obtained ratio is then used to estimate the activity of non-responding units. The non-response adjustment accounts for 5 per cent of GDP.

Wages and salaries in kind

The estimates of wages and salaries in kind are structured both according to NACE classes and to Classification of Expenditure According to Purpose (COICOP). The figures are balanced between the production, expenditure and income approaches. As the calculation of gross output is based on the receipts from sales, it does not include the goods and services provided as wages and salaries in kind to employees: the latter is additionally added to output. At present, estimates are based on information from the annual labour report and number of employees in different activities. The following items are recognized for NA purposes:

• free food products for the employees of enterprises producing pasta products, meat, milk, oil, alcohol, beer etc.;

• clothes;

• coal for employees of mining companies; • detergents;

• free tickets for the employees of the National Railway Company, free transport to and from work, free airplane tickets etc.;

• free telephones;

• free food for people working in restaurants, snack bars etc.; • meals and drinks consumed while travelling on business.

Tips

Explicit estimates of tips have not been recorded in NA up to now. 2.2 Expenditure Approach

The GDP expenditure approach is applied independently of the production approach. In general, the estimates derived from the expenditure approach are about 1 - 2 per cent larger than those from the production side.

The main exhaustiveness adjustments concern income-in-kind, households’ agricultural production and own-account construction. The exhaustiveness adjustments by expenditure approach are linked to the adjustments made at the production side.

Household final consumption expenditure

Since 1997, household final consumption expenditures are calculated according to COICOP at the four digit level. Balance of payments data is used to adjust the total household final consumption expenditure for net tourism as required by the national concept, which has been followed since 1996.

A comparison of estimates of household final consumption expenditures by COICOP items reveals some discrepancies, mainly concerning food commodities. The HBS estimates constantly exceed retail trade figures. In order to analyze this, the regular HBS questionnaire was extended with questions specifying the type of outlet where the household purchases are made. It was found that the main reason for the discrepancies is that households purchase food not only from the retail trade system but also from other outlets and producers such as households, producer-enterprises, wholesale trade outlets, and open air stalls.

Household production for own final consumption includes the agricultural products

produced by households, sub-divided into processed and not processed (fresh) agricultural products. The valuation of processed agricultural products is classified as output of unincorporated (secondary) activities and is estimated at basic prices. The value of non-processed agricultural goods is estimated at average selling prices using data from the agricultural balances.

For the estimate of “consumption of fresh products”, national accountants use the information provided by the HBS regarding the indicator “resources and distribution of food products”. For the estimation of its components, NA also uses information from the Agricultural division. In the estimate of GDP by final use, the produced agricultural products for own final consumption are adjusted for the internal turnover and for the part that is sold directly on the market or between households.

The purchases of private households based on retail trade data are adjusted for purchases for business purposes following the commodity flow approach.

The estimates of wages and salaries in kind are balanced between the production, expenditure and income approaches.

68 BULGARIA

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)

GFCF is measured by expenditure on acquisition of fixed assets (the actual expenditure on construction, improvements of existing assets, on delivery and mounting of fixed assets, including non-finished construction paid by customers) less the disposal of existing fixed assets.

Informal or household sector investments, especially for construction, are estimated on the basis of information from construction permits for newly initiated projects, which give indication of expenditures.

Exports and imports of goods and services

The exports and imports of goods are valued ‘fob’ (free on board) and are calculated on the basis of customs declarations. These data are provided by the External Trade Statistics Division of the NSI at the eight-digit level of the Combined Nomenclature, which has a transition key to the National CPA and NACE. The same figure is included in Balance of Payments (BoP). However, the adjustments are essentially made to bring the data in accordance with national accounts methodology, that is an adjustment of imports (8 per cent) to put them on a fob basis rather than ‘cif’ (cost, insurance and freight). A special investigation of the basic data sources was done within the framework of a bilateral project between the Bulgarian NSI and Statistics Norway in order to establish the procedure for proper calculation of cif/fob adjustments on imports data, especially with respect to allocation of resident transport services related to the external trade turnover. The results show that for 2002 and 2003, resident transport constitutes the biggest part of the cif/fob difference, almost 65 per cent.

No adjustments are made for ‘shuttle trade’ in spite of an expected impact on macro aggregates. Under the National Phare 2004 project, the NA Division is investigating shuttle trade, possible indirect data sources and development of adequate estimation procedures.

3. Sources