Diagrama de Casos de Uso del Sistema

The given investment cost for the analysis of the solar PV power plant investments (in Table 9) is based on the examples of solar PV projects in Turkey as tabulated in Table 16. It can be inferred from the table that the installed capacities of the example projects range from 2 MWel

to 10 MWel and the corresponding power plants are capable of operating at FLHs ranging from 1600 to1800. Further, the average FLHs of operation and the average specific investment cost of the projects amount to 1670 hours and 1102 $/kWel respectively.

Furthermore, the fixed and variable O&M cost of solar PV power plants are taken as 24,813

$/MWel-y and 16.3 $/MWhel respectively as given in the Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2015 Edition (NEA, IEA, OECD, 2015, p. 112). Finally, the economic life time of the power plant is taken as 25 years.

ρ=2% ρ=5% ρ=8%

Simmediate=Base FiT Rate=73 $/MWhel 4176 7149 >8760

S_immediate=Maximum FiT Rate=110 $/MWh_el 2272 3446 5221

Sperpetual=Expected Market Price in 2016=51.8 $/MWhel >8760 >8760 >8760 Investment Trigger Prices Threshold FLHs at

64

Table 16- The examples of realized solar PV power investments in Turkey (own illustration)

In Figure 25, the results of the analysis⁶⁵ on the technical⁶⁶ solar PV power potential and its categorized FLHs in Turkey and in some of other examined countries are represented. The corresponding analyses are carried out through the simulation of the solar power generation which is dependent on the simulated hourly solar irradiation data⁶⁷ (Resch, et al., 2015, p. 42).

Accordingly, Turkey possesses the highest technical solar PV power potential among the examined countries; however the quality of the resources is especially lower than in Spain (ES). More specifically, about 70% of the technical potential is estimated to lie in the range of 1250-1392 FLHs of operation and about 30% of it is estimated to lie in the range of 1108-1250 FLHs. The represented analyses in Table 16 and in Figure 25 indicate different ranges of FLHs of operation; since the corresponding analyses are dependent on different type of assessments and data set for solar power generation; however it can be inferred from Figure 25 that solar PV power plants operating more than 1400 FLHs are constructed in locations with rare high quality solar irradiation.

65 See Footnote 59 on p. 56 for more information about the study.

66 The analyses are conducted based on the weather conditions and the technical capability of available solar PV power technologies.

67 The data is mentioned to be obtained from Meteosat satellites as provided by HelioCLIM.

Solar PV

65

Figure 25- The technical solar PV power potential and its categorized FLHs in Turkey (TR), Spain (ES), France (FR), Italy (IT) and Germany (DE) (Ortner, 2014, p. 8)

In Figure 26, the relation between investment trigger prices and FLHs is displayed for solar PV power plant investments in the year 2016, considering different degrees of flexibility and levels of discount rate.

Figure 26- The comparison of the investment trigger prices for solar PV power investments as a function of full load hours and w.r.t. the different levels of discount rate and degrees of flexibility (own calculation & illustration)

GWh/y

40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

$/MWhel

Full Load Hours

S_perpetual at ρ=8% S_immediate at ρ=8% S_perpetual at ρ=5%

S_immediate at ρ=5% S_perpetual at ρ=2% S_immediate at ρ=2%

Simulated Market Price for Year 2016

66 In Table 17, the threshold FLHs of operation for solar PV power plants corresponding to the immediate investment decision and decision at any time is tabulated as obtained from Figure 26.

Table 17- The threshold FLHs for solar PV power plants w.r.t. the different means of revenue and discount rates (own calculation & illustration)

The calculated values for 𝑆_{𝑖𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑒} based on 𝜌 = 5% indicate that an investment on a solar PV power plant project should be initiated, if a solar PV power plant is capable of operating more than 1889 FLHs per year, considering the base FiT rate of 133 $/MWh_el. According to the FLHs of example projects in Table 16, none of them can operate at FLHs higher than the threshold FLHs. Further, the corresponding threshold FLHs decreases to 1762 FLHs until the year 2023 by taking into account the decline rate of 1% in the related costs. Furthermore, 𝑆_{𝑖𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑒} based on the maximum FiT rate of 200 $/MWhel indicates 1167 threshold FLHs.

In addition, the corresponding threshold FLHs decreases to 1096 FLHs until the year 2023 by taking into account the decline rate of 1% in costs. Although the analysis considering the example projects may seem insufficient to trigger immediate investment decision for about 4.8 GW_el capacity, the capacity expansion target may be reached by solely depending on the base FiT rate due to the reasons given below:

 The number of considered projects is not enough considering the geography of Turkey. In Turkey, the sunshine duration is 2993 hours in the South East Anatolia and 1971 hours in the Black Sea region.

 Most of the high quality solar PV power potential⁶⁸ has not been exploited yet;

although Turkey possesses the highest solar PV power potential in Europe.

 The analysis does not consider rooftop solar PV systems which enable more revenues through avoiding grid contribution fee (see Table 18) and allowing own consumption (i.e. based on retail price).

68 The installed capacity of solar PV, which is 249 MW_el at the end of 2015, stays far behind that of Germany and Spain.

ρ=2% ρ=5% ρ=8%

S_immediate=Base FiT Rate=133 $/MWh_el 1337 1889 2591

S_immediate=Maximum FiT Rate=200 $/MWh_el 840 1167 1559

S_perpetual=Expected Market Price in 2016=51.8 $/MWh_el 5806 >8760 >8760 Investment Trigger Prices Threshold FLHs at

67 In Table 18, the threshold FLHs of operation for rooftop solar PV systems are tabulated for the immediate investment decision and decision at any time in the year 2016. It can be inferred that an investment on a rooftop solar PV system should be initiated, if a rooftop solar PV system is capable of operating more than 1220 FLHs per year, considering the base FiT rate of 133 $/MWhel. In addition, the corresponding threshold FLHs decreases to 1106 FLHs until the year 2023 by taking into account the decline rate of 1% in the related costs.

Regarding the calculated values for 𝑆_{𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑝𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙}, a practically infeasible situation is indicated, also by taking into account the decrease in the related costs. To sum up, it can be deduced that the FiT scheme can be sufficient to trigger immediate investment for 4.8 GW_el rooftop solar PV systems. This is due to the fact that the remaining solar PV power potential, which can enable more than 1220 FLHs of operation, is examined to be available for the targeted amount of capacity expansion.

Table 18-The threshold FLHs for rooftop solar PV systems w.r.t. the different means of revenue and discount rates (own calculation & illustration)

The calculated value for 𝑆_{𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑝𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙} based on 𝜌 = 5% (see Table 17) indicates that an investment on a solar PV power plant project should be initiated, if a solar PV power plant is capable of operating more than 8760 FLHs per year, considering the simulated electricity market price for the period 2016-2023 (see Figure 18). This is a practically infeasible situation, also by taking into account the decline rate of 1% in the related costs. Accordingly, the uncertainty and the downward trend in the wholesale market price of electricity can lead to postponement of the potential solar PV power plant investments.

In summary, the analysis on the FLHs of operation of solar PV power plants in Turkey indicates that the FiT rates can be sufficient to reach the capacity expansion target; whereas the downward trend in wholesale market price of electricity indicates that the option to invest on solar PV power plant projects should be kept alive by postponing the decision to invest in the period 2016-2023.

ρ=2% ρ=5% ρ=8%

S_immediate=Base FiT Rate=133 $/MWh_el 864 1220 1673

S_immediate=Maximum FiT Rate=200 $/MWh_el 545 754 1007

S_perpetual=Expected Market Price in 2016=51.8 $/MWh_el 3749 6314 >8760 Investment Trigger Prices Threshold FLHs at

68

Assessment on Geothermal Power Plants