Diagramas de procesos del Laboratorio de “Impactos de suelos”

As stated before, Sweden went through the crisis relatively unscathed. However, the general European tendencies, such as falling interest rates, are also noticeable in Swedish policy (Ministry of Finance, 2016). The growth in GDP, however has been high in 2015 as well as in 2016. The same was visible in household consumption. This growth, however, is expected to wane in 2017. For the coming 3 years, the expected growth is shown in Table 4.

Regarding the CI, Deremar, Isaksson, Blom, and Broman (2017) have analyzed the Swedish CI in a statistical way and made some predictions about the future. A clear growth is visible in Figure 18 until 2018. In housing market, a strong increase of new dwellings is visible and expected for coming years. Renovation of buildings, however, is slightly decreasing.

Figure 18 – Total construction investment 2004-2018 (Source: Sveriges Byggindustrier, 2017)

5.4

Germany

Germany is the largest of the pre-selected countries, in population, as well as territory. This section shows how the German CI is structured. First the context is sketched, whereafter the structure is made clear, followed by the phase of development. An elaboration on the German CI can be found in the fourth section of appendix III.

5.4.1

History and context

For the last decades, the German economy is the strongest in Europe. This is also the case for the German CI (European Commission, 2016a). The German construction sector has not suffered from the crisis as much as its European counterparts have. On the contrary, it has experienced an increase in productivity and employment, driven primarily by investments in construction of residential properties. The growth in residential construction observed since 2010 is predicted to continue, with forecasts pointing towards a significant increase in 2017. The demand for housing will according to the EC continue to increase, supported by demographic developments over the next years. This shows that the German CI is doing well in an economic sense, but the achievements in organizational industry improvement in terms of innovation and sustainability are not deductible from these statistics. The complexity of the CIs calls for an increase the innovative capacity. For this purpose, associations, chambers, companies and the Gewerkschaft der Wertschöpfungskette Bau have been developing a guiding principle as a result of a one-year discussion process (Zentralverband Deutsches Baugewerbe,

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2018p Bil lion E u ro s

2009). The discussion aimed at the importance of the CI in the economy and society, the markets of the future, qualification of the employees, innovations in the value chain construction, quality and life cycle, cooperation in the industry, legality and value management. The report in which this principle is published offers a discussion regarding the vision and offers suggestions towards policies and strategic measures to reach those goals.

The Fraunhofer Alliance Bau has in close cooperation with the industry and public bodies tried to find solutions for the urban future (Fraunhofer-Allianz Bau, 2012). Solutions have been sought in the life cycle approach. This includes software in the CI (BIM), Nano-technology, sustainable materials, membrane materials, the user as starting point, automated systems, safety, energy use and generation, sustainability and last but not least internationalization.

For the German CI to gain a better position in Europe, a clear political agenda for the CI has to be set. The German Hauptverband der Deutschen Bau (HDB), Zentralverband Deutsches Baugewerbe (ZDB), and Bundesverband Baustoffe (BBS) are defined as being the most normative organizations in these activities (BBS, Die Deutsche Bauindustry, & Das Deutsche Baugewerbe, 2014). In this Positionspapier zu Construction 2020 that resulted from these efforts it is set forth what it should do with investments, education and training, sustainability and resources, domestic market and international affairs.

5.4.2

Industry structure

Germany has a unique system with a federal government and 16 individual states (Länder). This has huge implications on governance and policy making. However, Germany is known for its integral strategies on federal level, with large levels of prioritization. Germany has four main research institutes which are largely publicly funded. The universities have on one hand large autonomy and on the other hand they are governed by the states with their own prioritizations. Nonetheless, the federal strategies are mostly considered. The main research agenda is led by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), which organizes the funding and also supports research. Regarding construction, especially BWI Bau is influential, mainly focusing on economic and political aspects of construction.

Germany has the largest CI in Europe with 2,2 million people employed. The crisis was not severely felt in the German CI and only a minor decrease in turnover was shown in 2012. The building construction sector has been relatively stable for in the last decade. The social housing is privatized with certain implications in organizational terms, but without large implications for construction companies. A majority of the stock is owned by landlords and housing associations and hardly 40% in Germany is owner-occupied and the social housing has dropped to a mere 6% in 2014, even considerably lower than in the UK (Knorr-Siedow, 2015). Traffic-related infrastructure has been relatively stable in the past and the expected investments are slightly increasing up to 2020 (BMVI, 2016). Infrastructure is completely publicly commissioned and owned, although a toll system is in the making. Regarding the turnover of the CI, 15% comes from the service-related companies. The architects are united in the Architektenverband (VDA) which is a powerful association which has launched several initiatives to improve the subsector.

Regarding federal administration and policy making, especially the Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) is important as it takes care of the construction policies and city planning. More regarding (traffic) infrastructure, the Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) is relevant. Concerning research and innovation, the Ministry of Science and

Education (BMBF) is active in policy making. Also in relation to construction research it develops policies and collaborates with BMUB. The industry itself is united in Die Deutsche Bauindustrie, which is a powerful industry association. This represents mostly the market parties in construction

Compared to the Dutch CI, there are some major differences that are not represented clearly by the network schematization as presented in Figure 19. First of all, Germany is unique regarding its federal system including states with high autonomous administrative and legislative power. Furthermore, research is organized from partly private organizations that are funded largely publicly. CI research is organized within those organizations – notably Fraunhofer Allianz – and also the individual universities play a large role in this research. Other national industry associations are harder to find than in most other countries. There are some so called ‘Verbände’, but their influence seems lower than in for example the Netherlands, let alone the Scandinavian countries.

Knowledge and education

CI knowledge organizations  BWI Bau  Forschungsinitiative Zukunft Bau  Fraunhofer-Bau Cross-sectoral knowledge organizations  DFG  Max Planck-Institut  Leibniz Gemeinschaft  Helmholtz Gemeinschaft  Fraunhofer- Gesellshchaft Educational organizations  German universities  Fachhochschule  Berufsakademien Political System Government Governance

Policies on Research and Technological Development Demand Government  BMUB  BMVI  States (Länder)  Municipalities Project developers Housing Associations Construction firms (intermediate demand)  Large firms  SMEs Framework conditions Finincial climate Taxation, subsidies and other incentives

Propensity to innovation and entrepreneurship Mobility Industrial system Large companies SMEs Newcomers Architects and Engineers  Design  Consultancy Branch organizations

Die Deutsche Bau- industrie Das Deutsche Baugewerbe Hauptverband der Deutschen Bauindustrie KMU-Berater Other associations

Figure 19 – Network schematization German CI

Due to the national structure, the network is in practice different than in the other four studied countries. Germany is as discussed before divided into states which have a relatively large autonomy, also regarding research and education. However, the national publicly led initiatives on innovation and construction reform are example for broad-based federal initiatives. More detailed policies, however, are made mostly by the states.

5.4.3

Phase of development

As discussed before, for several decades the German economy is one of the most stable ones. Figure 20 shows the GDP development from 2008 to 2016 and the impact of the crisis in 2009, showing the quick recovery. Over the whole line, a stable, continuous increase is visible. A stable growth is also expected for the future, up to 2020. OECD, IMF, UN and EC all expect a continuous growth around 1,7% annually, with the OECD predicting a slightly lower 1,3% annually for the coming three years.

Figure 20 – Construction volume and GDP Germany (Source: Baumanns et al., 2016)

Also German Statistics Office has calculated the expected turnover of the CI in 2016 and predicted also a continuous growth for the CI as shown in Figure 21. Figure 20 shows the turnover over a longer period in which the development of the whole sector in the past 25 years is visible. The relative innocuity of the crisis in 2008 on the sector is also visible in the figure (Baumanns, Freber, Schober, & Kirchner, 2016).

Figure 21 – Turnover German CI 2006-2020 (Source: Destatis, 2016) 0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00 140,00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015s 2016p 2017p 2018p 2019p 2020p Bil lion eu ro s