Diferencia de Actitudes hacia las TIC según el género

As we can see, three major techniques and a large variety of estimation models have been applied to answer whether and the extent to which the RMB is undervalued in the existing Economics studies. With regard to the first question, a fair degree of agreed answer is “yes” though a small number of studies disagree, whereas as to the second question, no consensus has been reached because the existing Economics studies have yielded a very wide range of estimates. Table 2.1 shows some selected economics studies on the RMB exchange rate.

https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/64348/wp934.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y (accessed 16/09/2016).

104 _{Yuming Cui (2013) “How is the RMB exchange rate misaligned? A recent application of behavioral}

equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) to China”, Journal of East Asian Economic Integration, Vol.17, No.3, pp.281- 310.

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Table 2.1: Selected Economics studies on the RMB exchange rate

Author Year Approach Results

Coudert et al 2005, 2007 PPP A lack of the Balassa-Samuelson effect Cheung et al 2005, 2007,

2009, 2010

PPP Little statistically significant evidence to support the RMB undervaluation

Yan et al 2011 PPP Confirmation of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, significant overvaluation during 1984-87, significant undervaluation

during 1989-91 and no indication of a statistically significant misalignment in the most recent years Ju et al 2011 PPP A lack of the Balassa-Samuelson effect Goldstein 2004 FEER Significantly undervalued on an order of 15% to 25% Anderson 2005 FEER RMB undervaluation was about 15% to 20% and the adjustment would require a revaluation of 18% to 25% Goldstein et al 2006 FEER Significantly undervalued on an order of 20% to 40% Goldstein et al 2007 FEER A 35% to 60% real appreciation of the renminbi is

required to eliminate China’s current account surplus Coudert et al 2005, 2007 FEER Highly undervalued (10%-33%) between 2002 and 2005

in effective terms and even more (35%) against the US dollar

Funke at al 2005 BEER The RMB was overvalued until the mid-1996, followed by undervaluation which peaked at 15%, and the RMB was

undervalued by 11% at 2002 MacDonald et

al

2007 BEER The RMB was undervalued on an order of 27.3% to 46.6% Chen 2007 BEER The RMB were undervalued during most part of sample

period from 1994 Q1 to 2006 Q2, but the misalignment had a trend to become smaller and smaller Wang et al 2007 BEER The RMB fluctuated around its equilibrium rate within a

narrow band and were consistently undervalued Chen et al 2008 BEER The RMB fluctuated with undervaluation up to 4% and

overvaluation up to 6% from 1997 to 2007Q3 Cui 2013 BEER Significant undervaluation of the RMB by up to 20% and

the trend of the RMB approaching to its equilibrium exchange rate since 2007 except for the period of crisis

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The existing approaches to the RMB exchange rate within the literature of Economics studies are not without merit, especially insofar as they draw attention to the causes of the global economic imbalance and to the possible methods to address it. Their explanatory utility nonetheless remains circumscribed owing to the lack of consensus among economists on the RMB equilibrium exchange rate and the estimation of misalignment. The IMF working paper by Dunaway and Li indicates that the wide variation in these estimates is attributed to “the influence of such factors as the different methodologies used, explanatory variables included, subjective judgments of the various researchers in deriving their results, and instability in

underlying economic relationships, especially in a rapidly developing economy like China”.105

However, if we think outside the box, the major shortcoming of the Economics studies on the RMB exchange rate is that economists generally assume a pure economic world in which only the price and market mechanism take effect, but neglect political factors such as state, institutions and political leaders. As the RMB exchange rate policy is known to be formulated and implemented by leaders in the Chinese central government, more in depth examination on China’s domestic politics would be conducive to understanding the RMB exchange rate policymaking. Moreover, the competing results of existing Economics studies have further stoked debates and bargaining in international politics as well as China’s domestic politics. Without referring to international influences as well as the leaders, structures and processes of China’s exchange rate policymaking, it would not be possible to

gain a deep and thorough understanding of the RMB exchange rate.106

105 _{Steven Dunaway and Xiangming Li (2005) “Estimating China’s equilibrium real exchange rate”, IMF Working}

Paper No.WP/05/202, p.1, retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2005/wp05202.pdf (accessed 16/09/2016).

106 _{Several scholars have expressed this similar view. See, for example, Maochang Wang (2005) “Political}

economy analysis of exchange rate system choice: A literature review [汇率制度选择的政治经济学分析：文 献综述]”, Comparative Economic and Social Systems [经济社会体制比较_{], Vol.3, pp.137-141; Yuyan Zhang}

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In particular, it is worthwhile examining the political factors that push the US government to pressure China and the factors in Chinese politics that impel Chinese leaders to resist American pressure. Compared with the Western counterparts, China’s leaders hold a very different view on the exchange rate. The orthodox view of the Western politicians and mainstream economists is that China’s external imbalance has explicated that the RMB exchange rate is far away from the equilibrium and that policy changes should be made to

address the RMB misalignment.107 However, the Chinese side does not simply attribute the

external imbalance to exchange rate misalignment. The Chinese leadership regards the exchange rate as one component in the toolkit of development strategy, in which the priority is not to create a market economy or to achieve market equilibrium but to make China a

wealthy and powerful country.108 The next section will turn to the CPE and IPE studies on

China’s exchange rate politics.