1 ¿Por qué resulta la ciencia tan fiable para el derecho?
2. El juez y el científico
2.2. La lógica y la experiencia como método
2.2.1. Diferencias entre el juez y el científico
Portfolio Statement (continued)
As at 31 May 2012
* Interest rates shown are those prevailing at 31 May 2012 **Unquoted security
Total Value of Investments (Cost $322,539,548) 328,095,754 98.03
Interest Receivable on Financial Assets 4,178,215 1.26
Unrealised gain on Forward Foreign Exchange Contracts (see note 9 for full details) 2,108,442 0.63 Unrealised loss on Forward Foreign Exchange Contracts (see note 9 for full details) (10,606,058) (3.17)
Cash and Bank Balance 17,939,732 5.36
Bank overdraft (904,891) (0.27)
Adjustment from bid-market prices to mid-market prices 1,555,386 0.46
Other Net Current Liabilities (7,680,991) (2.30)
Total Value of the Fund at 31 May 2012 334,685,589 100.00
Analysis of Total Assets Total Assets % of
Transferable securities admitted to an official stock exchange
listing or dealt in on another regulated market. 92.29
Other assets 7.71
100.00
Invesco Emerging Markets Bond Fund
Changes in the Composition of the Portfolio
For the six months ended 31 May 2012
Purchases Cost $ Sales Proceeds $
Turkey Government International Bond 6.25% USD 26/09/2022
9,998,426
Invesco Funds SICAV - Emerging Local currencies Debt Fund A Dist
15,000,000 Indonesia Government International Bond 3.75% USD 25/04/2022 9,223,368 Romanian Government International Bond 6.75% USD
07/02/2022
6,504,724 Romanian Government International Bond 6.75% USD 07/02/2022 9,042,848 Itau Unibanco Holding SA/Cayman Island 6.20% USD
21/12/2021
5,496,050 Invesco Funds SICAV - Emerging Local currencies Debt Fund A Dist 7,884,720 Emirate of Dubai Government International Bonds 7.75% USD
05/10/2020
5,488,465 United Mexican States 4.75% USD 08/03/2044 7,503,555 Vale Overseas Ltd 4.375% USD 11/01/2022 5,475,935 Vale Overseas Ltd 4.375% USD 11/01/2022 7,500,000 VTB Bank OJSC Via VTB Capital SA 6.00% USD 12/04/2017 5,312,323 Philippine Government International Bond 5.00% USD
13/01/2037 7,031,110
Empresa Nacional del Petroleo 4.75% USD 06/12/2021 5,114,780 Indonesia Government International Bond 5.25% USD
17/01/2042 6,230,000
Mexican Bonos 7.75% MXN 14/12/2017 5,055,780 Nomos Bank Via Nomos Capital Plc 10.00% USD 26/04/2019
5,750,000
Russian Agricultural Bank OJSC Via RSHB Capital SA 6.00% USD 03/06/2021
5,051,875 Sberbank of Russia Via SB Capital SA 6.125% USD 07/02/2022 5,698,220 Petroleos Mexicanos 4.875% USD 24/01/2022 5,010,745 Urbi Desarrollos Urbanos SAB de CV 9.75% USD 03/02/2022
5,500,000
Petrobras International Finance Co - Pifco 3.50% USD 06/02/2017
4,953,260 RZD Capital Ltd 5.7% USD 05/04/2022 5,290,000 Banco do Brasil 9.25% USD 31/10/2049 4,791,475 Raspadskaya OJSC Via Raspadskaya Securities Ltd 7.75% USD
27/04/2017 5,250,000
Tencent Holdings Ltd 4.625% USD 12/12/2016 4,763,729 VTB Bank OJSC Via VTB Capital SA 6.00% USD 12/04/2017
5,081,580
Indonesia Government International Bond 5.25% USD 17/01/2042
4,501,400 KazMunayGas National Co 7.00% USD 05/05/2020 5,070,000 Gazprom OAO Via Gaz Capital SA 5.999% USD 23/01/2021 4,475,838 China Shanshui Cement Group Ltd 10.50% USD 27/04/2017 4,994,707 GTB Finance B.V. 7.50% USD 19/05/2016 4,202,000 Empresa Nacional del Petroleo 4.75% USD 06/12/2021
4,990,583
Senegal Goverment International Bond 8.75% USD 13/05/2021
4,155,550 Pertamina Persero PT 4.875% USD 03/05/2022 4,900,720 ICICI Bank Ltd/Dubai 4.75% USD 25/11/2016 4,132,007 Siam Commercial Bank Ltd/Hong Kong 3.375% USD
19/09/2017 4,889,500
Indosat Palapa Co BV 7.375% USD 29/07/2020 4,073,800 Dolphin Energy Ltd 5.5% USD 15/12/2021 4,871,531 Abu Dhabi National Energy Co 4.125% USD 13/03/2017 3,959,175 Petrobras International Finance Co - Pifco 3.50% USD
06/02/2017 4,821,579
Abu Dhabi National Energy Co 5.875% USD 13/12/2021 3,865,238 Banco Santander Brasil SA/Brazil 4.625% USD 13/02/2017
4,757,712
Turkey Government International Bond 6.25% USD 26/09/2022
3,830,560 Petroleos Mexicanos 4.875% USD 24/01/2022 4,756,615 Banco del Estado de Chile 3.875% USD 08/02/2022 3,826,595 Colombia Government International Bond 6.125% USD
18/01/2041 4,750,000
Banco Internacional del Peru SAA 5.75% USD 07/10/2020 3,792,900 Banco do Brasil 9.25% USD 31/10/2049 4,714,969 China Shanshui Cement Group Ltd 10.5% USD 27/04/2017 3,729,990 Tencent Holdings Ltd 4.625% USD 12/12/2016 4,533,092 Virgolino de Oliviera 11.75% USD 05/08/2031 3,705,550 Republic of Latvia 5.25% USD 22/02/2017
4,156,375
Venezuela Government International Bond 11.95% USD 05/08/2031
3,649,000 Venezuela Government International Bond 11.95% USD
05/08/2031 4,098,850
Oi SA 5.75% USD 10/02/2022 3,645,890
Rearden G Holdings EINS GmbH 7.875% USD 30/03/2020 3,991,850 Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras SA 5.75% USD 27/10/2021 3,606,535 State Oil Co of the Azerbaijan Republic 5.45% USD 09/02/2017
3,940,279
Colombia Government International Bond 7.375% USD 18/03/2019
3,598,210 Abu Dhabi National Energy Co 4.125% USD 13/03/2017 3,928,750 Banco de Credito del Peru/Panama 4.75% USD 16/03/2016 3,533,535 Banco Bradesco SA/Cayman Islands 5.75% USD 01/03/2022
3,794,920
Turkey Government International Bond 6.00% USD 14/01/2041
3,495,500 Banco del Estado de Chile 3.875% USD 08/02/2022 3,781,025 Oschadbank Via SSB #1 Plc 8.25% USD 10/03/2016 3,488,650 Volcan Cia Minera SAA 5.375% USD 02/02/2022 3,690,000 IPIC GMTN Ltd 5.50% USD 01/03/2022 3,483,963 Oi SA 5.75% USD 10/02/2022 3,666,655 Malaysia Government Bond 3.58% MYR 28/09/2018 3,454,707 Virgolino de Oliviera 11.75% USD 05/08/2031 3,623,697 Banco Bradesco SA/Cayman Islands 4.50% USD 12/01/2017 3,450,780 Abu Dhabi National Energy Co 5.875% USD 13/12/2021 3,392,906 Other Sales 178,324,586 Malaysia Government Bond 3.58% MYR 28/09/2018 3,525,590 Total proceeds of sales since 1 December 2011 $344,001,100
Banco de Credito del Peru FRN 6.125% USD 24/04/2027 3,502,700 Petrobras International Finance Co - Pifco 5.375% USD
27/01/2021 3,490,064
Bank of Ceylon 6.875% USD 03/05/2017 3,421,000 Banco Bradesco SA/Cayman Islands 4.50% USD 12/01/2017 3,420,000 Pertamina Persero PT 6.00% USD 03/05/2042 3,392,906
Other Purchases 118,645,834
Investment Adviser’s Report on behalf of the Manager
The UK economy fell into recession after a 0.3% drop quarter-on- quarter, the first UK double dip recession since the economic turmoil of 1975. The Bank of England injected a further £50 billion into the economy through quantitative easing in February. After an initial increase in risk sentiment, investor confidence dropped towards the end of the period as the eurozone crisis continued to drive risk appetite. However, there was positive news on the UK government’s targeted rate of inflation, the CPI, as it fell from 4.8% to 2.8% over the last 6 months.
The Fund underperformed it’s respective benchmark over the period. 10-year Gilts fell 74 basis points finishing at 1.571% at the end of the period. Our yield curve position detracted slightly from
performance as the curve steepened for longer dated Gilts. However, our exposure to inflation-linked bonds attributed positively to Fund performance but could not outweigh the negative attribution from the duration position, i.e. the measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal) of a fixed-income investment to a change in interest rates. The official benchmark changed from the FTSE All Government Index to Citigroup UK Government Bond Index at the end of April 2012.
With yields close to their all-time lows but the economic outlook still very fragile, the fund continues to be positioned in predominantly defensive trades. We believe that undertaking an outright short duration position, even at these yield levels, does not feel warranted with the European crisis continuing to roll on whilst global growth, in both developed and emerging economies, continues to weaken at a time when most of the major central banks have already enacted very loose monetary policy.
The Bank of England has recently announced some more innovative policies to help stimulate growth in the UK but will be constrained as to how much effect this will have. Its major trading partner, Europe, continues to struggle to break the downward spiral between weakening bank balance sheets and weakening sovereign credit rating that is leading to a combination of more deleveraging and fiscal austerity. It is very likely that the Bank will start another round of Gilt buying and this, amidst the current high demand for safe haven assets, will keep Gilts under strong demand as they remain one of the few government bond markets with a stable S&P AAA rating, very long maturity profile and a supportive central bank.
Although the recent European summit appears to be outlining a better roadmap to alleviate the strains in its government bond markets, there is still no firm move to debt and fiscal mutualisation across the eurozone. Furthermore, with the US economy facing a fiscal cliff of up to 4% of GDP in 2013 and China struggling to rebalance away from exports, we believe it is difficult to get too bearish on outright yield levels. Having said that, tactical short duration opportunities will be sought if pessimism becomes too extreme but the level of the US stock market does not suggest we are even close to that yet.
Invesco Gilt Fund
Fund Performance Percentage change over:
(All expressed in the share class base currency,
mid to mid, gross income reinvested) 6 months Last 12 months Last (cumulative)Last 5 years
Invesco Gilt A Unit 1.78 14.85 44.97
Invesco Gilt B Unit 1.24 13.69 37.57
Invesco Gilt C Unit 1.89 15.15 46.92
Citi UK GBI All Maturities Index 4.83 17.62 55.85
FTSE Government Issues (Benchmark) 4.67 16.32 52.60
Source: Morningstar
The Net Asset Value information for May 31, 2012, November 30, 2011 and May 31, 2011 can be found on pages 47, 48 and 49.
Price and Income Record
The table below shows the highest and lowest NAV prices of Units in the Fund and the annual income distribution according to the pay date of the Fund in the last 10 years
.
Calendar Highest NAV Price ‘A’ Units Lowest NAV Price ‘A’ Units Highest NAV Price ‘B’ Units Lowest NAV Price ‘B’ Units Highest NAV Price ’C’ Units Lowest NAV Price ‘C’ Units Year £ £ £ £ £ £ 2003 12.83 11.73 12.60 11.47 13.10 11.99 2004 12.26 11.71 11.89 11.37 12.57 11.99 2005 12.50 11.85 11.96 11.42 12.85 12.15 2006 12.65 11.92 12.09 11.36 13.00 12.26 2007 12.14 11.40 11.47 10.73 12.52 11.76 2008 13.19 11.60 12.22 10.81 13.65 12.00 2009 13.29 12.10 12.28 11.15 13.76 12.55 2010 13.48 12.26 12.32 11.23 14.00 12.72 2011 14.38 12.35 13.17 11.30 14.94 12.82 2012† 14.46 13.74 13.24 12.60 15.01 14.26
Net Income per £1,000 invested Net Income Distribution
in November 1994 at a price of £9.74 per Unit
Calendar ‘A’ Units ‘B’ Units ‘C’ Units ‘A’ Units ‘B’ Units ‘C’ Units
Year £$ £ £ £ £ £ 2003 0.5700 0.5603 0.5718 58.52 57.53 58.71 2004 0.5300 0.5153 0.5426 54.41 52.90 55.71 2005 0.5163 0.4971 0.5298 53.01 51.04 54.39 2006 0.4553 0.4337 0.4684 46.75 44.53 48.09 2007 0.4686 0.4419 0.4832 48.11 45.37 49.61 2008 0.3182 0.2972 0.3288 32.67 30.51 33.75 2009 0.5047 0.4654 0.5230 51.82 47.78 53.70 2010 0.3830 0.2251 0.4305 39.32 23.11 44.20 2011 0.3947 0.2412 0.4440 40.52 24.76 45.59 2012† 0.1888 0.1082 0.2144 19.38 11.11 22.01 † Figures to 30 June 2012.
Source: Invesco Global Asset Management Limited.
The Fund will normally go ex-dividend for A, B and C Units on 31 May and 30 November each year. Distributions are normally paid on or after twenty one days of the ex-dividend date in each year. Reports on the progress of the Fund are published on or before 31 March and on or before 31 July each year and shall be made available to Unitholders free of charge on request. Details of the distributions paid to A, B and C Unitholders are set out in note 8.The price of Units and the income from them can go down as well as up. Please note that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Portfolio Statement (continued)
As at 31 May 2012
The Portfolio of Investments - (analysed by geographical sector) Value of
(Quoted debt instruments unless otherwise stated) Fund
Investment Holding £ %