The measurement of the total fertility rates in Pakistan is relatively a complex task par- ticularly at provinces level in past because information for the reproductive behavior of women has not been published in censuses. Virtually, there is no vital registration system existing in Pakistan. The only source about the reproductive behavior is from different surveys conducted at the national and international level. Figure 2.7 shows the total fertility rate in Pakistan from four different sources, namely Pakistan demo- graphic and health survey (PDHS), UN 2010 World Population Prospects, US Census bureau and official estimates, published by the Federal bureau Statistics Pakistan based on different surveys conducted at the national level—such as Pakistan demographic survey (PDS). Total Fertility rate (TFR) in Pakistan had been very high during the decades of 1950s and 1960s ranging between six to seven children per women. Ac- cording to a Population Growth experiment survey in 1962-65, indirect estimate of the TFR was 7.95 children per women in Pakistan. On average, TFR in Pakistan in- creased from 6.3 in the decade of 1960s to around 6.8 in the decade of 1970s (Sathar, 2007). In spite of the first family planning program implemented in Pakistan during the Ayub regime in 1965. Due to lack of funds, political instability, social and cultural obstacles, these programs were never successful during the 1960s and 1970s. There are several reasons of such high fertility in Pakistan during the decades of 1960s and 1970s. On the one hand, the religious parties and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto attached the family planning program as a part of the campaign against the Ayub Khan in 1970s, and giving the general public the idea that, family planning program had a western agenda against Pakistan. Thus, due to social-political changes during the decade of 1970s, family planning program became inactive during this regime.
The mean number of children per women fell sharply in late 1980s in Pakistan. The evidence of first fertility decline came out from the Pakistan demographic and health survey conducted in 1990-91, where the estimated TFR was 5.4 children per women.8 According to Figure 2.7, during the decade of 1980s, fertility declined sharply at a rate of roughly 20 percent based on the estimates from official sources in Pakistan. Whereas according to United Nations and the US census bureau, the decline was 18 percent during the decades of 1980s in Pakistan. Thus, there is an ample evidence that the fertility transition in Pakistan had begun in late 1980s and quickened further at a rate of one percent per annum during the decades of 1990s. It is worth mentioning that during the period of two Demographic and Health survey in Pakistan from 1990 to 2006, the total fertility rate declined one percent per year. It implies that with the same rate of decline, Pakistan will reach replacement level fertility in 20 years from 2005 (i.e TFR: 3.65 in 2005-2010 and with 0.07 children decline per year, TFR reaches 2.1 in 2025-30) which is far behind of the assumed year by United Nations 2010 World Population Prospects (UN assumed in 30 years; TFR: 2.1 in 2035-40).
Figure 2.8 illustrates the total fertility rate at provincial level in Pakistan from Pak-
Figure 2.7: Total Fertility rate in Pakistan from 1950 to 2007
istan Demographic and Health Surveys (PDHS), which was carried out in 1990-91 and 2006-07. In 1990-91, total fertility rate in Pakistan at a national level was 5.4 children per woman. However, TFR had already slightly lowered—5.1 children per women—in the southern province of Pakistan (i.e Sindh). The spatial structure of Pak- istan segregated into three groups based on their level of fertility transition and socio- economic development: a rapid fertility transition observed in Punjab and Balochistan during 1990-2006; to slow pace of decline experienced in Sindh during 1990-2006; and KPK stand in a middle position with moderating decline during the same period. The fertility transition in Punjab and Balochistan was significantly faster compared to other provinces in Pakistan. According to the PDHS, the total fertility rate fell sharply in Punjab and Balochistan at the rate of 28 percent and 29 percent, respec- tively during the period of 1991-2006–from 5.4 children to 3.9 children per women in Punjab and from 5.8 children to 4.1 children per women in Balochistan. The total fertility rate experienced a slow decline in Sindh during the period 1990-2006. Ap- proximately, 16 percent decline in total fertility rate observed in Sindh—TFR from 5.1 children per women in 1990 to 4.3 in 2006. On the other hand, KPK accom- plished a moderate fertility decline during the period 1990-2006. Roughly, 22 percent decline in total fertility rate notified in KPK—from 5.5 children per women to 4.3 during 1990-2006. The pace of the decline in Balochistan had rapid during the last two decades—29 percent from 1990 to 2006. Indeed, improved socio-economic de- velopment and educational level in Punjab assumed the vital factors that contribute in the fertility transition in Punjab. However, it is unclear yet in Balochistan and need further extensive research to explore the causes and determinants of fertility transi- tion in Balochistan. The human development Index in Punjab is the highest value in Pakistan in recent years. The decline in fertility in Punjab was primarily achieved through contraceptive prevalence. However, age at marriage, infant mortality rate and female education also considerably improved in the recent past. Education reform program in Punjab has set up with the assistant of World Bank to promote literacy and universal primary enrollment particular for females in early 1990s. These programs
Table 2.8: Total fertility rate in Pakistan at provincial level from 1990-2006
Region Total fertility rate 1990-91 2006-07 % decline Pakistan 5.4 4.1 24 Punjab 5.4 3.9 28 Sindh 5.1 4.3 16 KPK 5.5 4.3 22 Balochistan 5.8 4.1 29 Source: PDHS
seem to have been more important as compared to specific family planning program initiative to convince the couples about the quantity-quality trade-off of children, a well-known factor in fertility reduction. The level of socio-economic development and urbanization has not a sole factor for accelerating the fertility transition in Pun- jab and Balochistan. This needs a further call for investigation about the determinant of the fertility transition at the provincial level, particularly in Punjab and Balochistan.