It is important to recognize that it is not necessary to incorporate all of the individual functional requirements discussed in section F into the conceptual framework at one time. Rather, the framework could evolve, first in- corporating the level functions and transfer functions that are best understood, and later adding other functions whose developments will take more time to perfect.
Considering (1) their relative importance in depicting materials flow, and (2) the state-of- the-art for obtaining the relevant data and defining the associated transfer functions, the assessment suggests that the following basic functional capabilities ought to be initially im- plemented:
. Monitor and project resource inventories,
● Monitor and project reserves inventories,
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Figure ill-6.-Basic Informational Framework Applied to Materials Substitution
SUPPLY CONSIDERATIONS UTILIZATION CONSIDERATIONS ● 1
)
Transfer functions (e g., actions that depict dependencies among elements)o
Controlling functions (e.g., actions designed to correct undesirable conditions)CHAPTER III ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Monitor and project stockpiles (strategic and economic),
Monitor and project imports,
Monitor and project recycled materials. Forecast total supply,
Monitor and project materials produced and production capacity,
Monitor and project material consumed in end products,
Monitor and project exports, Forecast total demand, and
Forecast price impact on supply and de- mand.
If implemented within the integrated frame- work described here, these functions could p r o v i d e s u b s t a n t i a l c a p a b i l i t y t o a s s i s t policy makers in addressing such questions as:
● Will a shortage in a particular critical
material occur, and when ?
● W h e r e w i l l t h e i m p a c t b e f e l t m o s t
severely ?
● How might affected industries act to ease
the resulting economic distortions?
● W h a t o t h e r m e a s u r e s ( c o n s e r v a t i o n ,
s t o c k p i l i n g , e x p a n d i n g p r o d u c t i v e capacity) might be adopted?
The basic functions are all deemed to be im- plementable within the current state-of-the- art. Acquiring all the necessary information will present problems, but much of it appears to be available, at least for certain materials, as indicated in figures III–7 and III–8 covering aluminum. (In this connection, it should be noted that the assessment did not attempt to select the specific materials that might be in- cluded within the conceptual framework. The number of materials covered might be of the order of 50. For comparison, the President’s Council on International Economic Policy identified 19 materials as critical. )
The set of functional capabilities that might be added later to the basic set could enable p o l i c y m a k e r s t o a d d r e s s m o r e c o m p l e x
problems than would be possible with the basic set. The supplemental set might provide. for example. the capability for a more accurate and comprehensive impact assessment of policy alternatives. Thus, policy makers could address regional analysis, worldwide materials supply/use assessment. comprehensive inter- commodity substitution analysis, and the im- plications of such operational considerations as transportation requirements. availability y of capital, and availability of trained manpower. Also, policy makers using a supplemental set of functional capabilities might be able to assess the potential impacts and restraints of national policies related to employment. pro- tection of the environment, and conservation of energy.
The assessment identified the following functions which could be added to the basic set:
●
●
●
Monitor and project foreign supply and utilization. This function would supple- ment the basic functions that monitor and project inventory of domestic resources/reserves and imports/exports. It would seek to acquire and utilize data on foreign resources and reserves and on trade between foreign countries to a g r e a t e r e x t e n t i n t h e e q u i l i b r i u m analyses.
Monitor and project environmental im- pact and energy use. This function would acquire the necessary data on energy use throughout the materials cycle and would show the relationships and trade-offs among production, price, environmental impact, and conservation, among other variables.
Project recycling potential. This function would supplement the basic function covering recycled material. Whereas the basic function covers the established recovery industry. this function accounts for the potential of additional recovery using advanced technologies not cur- rently used. It also could be used to evalu- ate the effectiveness of incentives to en- courage such advanced technologies.
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Figure III-7 .—Aluminum Information Sources for Supply Functions
Source Information supply Government Private Resource and Site Characteristics GS DOA Reserves Classification GS BOM Industry Quantity of Reserves GS BOM Quantity Mined and Capacity of Mining BOM Material Available DOA DOM OMPD Quantity of Material Available (Annual-Short and Long Term)
1 r — — — . I I Stockpile ● BOM GSA Industry Aluminum Assoc. Aluminum Assoc. Industry Aluminum Assoc. Aluminum Recycling Assoc. Inventory of Stocks Customs Census Quantity Imported Quantity of Material from Scrap BOM Recycled Material Industry Recycling Process 1 86
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Figure III-8 .—Aluminum Information Sources for Utilization Functions
Source Information UTILIZATION Government Private State of U.S. Economy (GNP, and Sectors) DOC (Sic) DOC FEA EPA Price Impact on Demand Demand Aluminum Assoc. Industry DOC (Short term)
Quantity of Material Demand, Annual BOM Industry Mining Processes Quantities Mixed Aluminum Assoc. Industry Industry Primary Material Production and Capacity DIBA Bur. of Census
I
Products 1 Manufacturing Processes, Production and Capacity Bur. of Census DIBA Annual Quantity of Material in Each Product DOC Industry Material Exported, AnnualBur. of Census Aluminum Assoc. Industry Industry Useful Life of Products Quantity of Material In Discarded Products Industry ~ M a t e r i a l F l o w + - I n f o r m a t i o n F l o w 87
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● Monitor research and development. This
f u n c t i o n w o u l d f a c t o r r e s e a r c h a n d development information into the sup- ply/utilization analysis, thereby improv- ing its accuracy and realism. The tie-in between the R&D information systems a n d t h e e c o n o m i c s - o r i e n t e d s y s t e m would also be useful in indicating objec- tives for improved technology. Thus, if the overall system indicated a materials shortage in say, nickel, R&D oppor- tunities and programs could be evaluated in light of the seriousness of the threat. Data on results of current research, along with data on scientific manpower, such as availability and current research in- terests, would also aid in the formulation of R&D programs to address identified problem areas, The extended function might also provide a basis for better judg- ing as to whether or not R&D could affect a perceived shortage within a given lead time.
. Determine substitutability. This function would enable analysts to consider more
completely the effects of substitution of o n e m a t e r i a l f o r a n o t h e r , A n o t h e r possibility is to combine this function with an information system covering physical and chemical materials proper- t i e s t o a c h i e v e a c o m p u t e r - a s s i s t e d materials selection system, This would enable planners and users to evaluate the merits of using one material in place of another, taking into account economic conditions as well as technical properties. As detailed in appendix A, it appears that much of the information needed for such a system is identical with that needed for a general purpose materials planning system.
● Monitor availability of investment
capital, transportation, and trained labor. These factors all impact long-range sup- ply. Elaborating the basic system to incor- porate their effects increases the overall accuracy of solutions and would enable policy makers to address more detailed and more subtle aspects of materials flow.