Discussion: Lutetian SBZ Calibration

47. The calculation of costs savings associated with the avoidance of emergency shelter costs was based on certain information and data provided to and compiled by the IOLA Fund. Primary factors considered in the calculation included (1) the number of housing cases for which brief representation was provided, (2) the number of housing cases for which extended representation was provided, (3) the success rate in these matters for the avoidance of public shelter, and (4) the average annual cost of emergency shelter for one family.

Brief Representation Cases

48. For Brief Representation Cases, information was provided by general legal aid grantees to the IOLA Fund relating to the number of housing cases closed by Brief Representation in 2015. A “success rate” was estimated for these cases representing the percentage of these cases in which one or more of the following outcomes was achieved: avoided eviction, obtained additional time, or avoided foreclosure. This percentage was estimated to be 11 percent based on a scientific survey by The Resource in which 400 legal aid clients that had received advice or brief services in the latter half of 2011 in Pennsylvania were randomly sampled and interviewed by phone to determine the outcomes of their cases. Eleven percent of

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those with housing issues achieved outcomes of "avoided eviction," "obtained additional time to seek alternative housing," or "avoided foreclosure."

49. By multiplying the success rate by the number of Brief Representation Cases, the number of limited representation cases in which clients avoided eviction, obtained additional time, or avoided foreclosure was estimated.

50. A portion of these matters could be assumed to have resulted in the avoidance of emergency shelter costs by these families. To estimate the percentage of these matters for which emergency shelter was avoided, I have considered analysis results provided to the Chief Judge's Task Force to Expand Access to Civil Legal Services in New York on October 19, 2011 by consultant Geeta Singh, Ph.D. of Cornerstone Research (“Singh Analysis”). The estimated avoidance percentage based on this study was 41%. This percentage was applied to calculate the number of cases for which emergency shelter was avoided.

51. Finally, an estimate of the average cost per family per year of emergency shelter was estimated, based on the Singh Analysis. The estimated annual cost per family of $23,997 was multiplied by the estimated number of cases for which emergency shelter was avoided to yield total estimated cost savings from Brief Representation cases of $48.8 million.

Extended Representation Cases

52. For Extended Representation Cases, the total number of extended representation cases in which clients avoided eviction, obtained additional time, or avoided foreclosure were determined based on the IOLA Grantee Report.

53. The number of cases was again multiplied by the 41% avoidance percentage represented in the Singh Analysis (described above). The resulting estimated number of cases for which need for emergency shelter was avoided was then

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multiplied by the estimated annual cost per family of $23,997 per the Coalition Report to yield total estimated cost savings associated with Extended Representation Cases of $211.7 million.

Total Cost Savings

54. Based on the consideration and analysis of Brief Representation and Extended Representation Cases described above, the total estimated cost savings from the avoidance of emergency shelter was estimated to be $260.60 million. This amount corresponds to shelter avoidance for an estimated 26,490 individual people, based on an estimated family size of 2.44 as per the IOLA Grantee Annual Report data.

IV. Conclusion

55. The provision of civil legal services to disadvantaged populations provides substantial economic value to needy families, as well as state and local economies and governments. Assuming continued participation in key federal programs and other support payments in coming years, the economic value to the beneficiaries and their families of benefits secured as a result of legal representation in 2014 is estimated to be approximately $887.4 million.

These benefits also provide a significant stimulus to the New York State economy overall and creates thousands of jobs. Considering the multiplier effect of the federal funds brought into New York State, the positive impact on the economy from the provision of civil legal services in 2014 is estimated to amount to $1.28 billion and the creation of approximately 7,210 jobs. Finally, the use of civil legal services to delay or avoid foreclosure or eviction reduces homelessness and the associated costs to taxpayers. The 26,343 cases in 2014 in which legal

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assistance helped avoid eviction or foreclosure resulted in an estimated savings for taxpayers of $260.6 million as a result of reduced need for emergency shelter. As a result, the total economic impact of civil legal services provided to disadvantaged populations in 2014 is estimated to total approximately $2.4 billion.

56. There are many ways one could use the estimates provided herein to consider a return on program funding. For example, relative to program funding of $296.6 million, and considering the full 10 years of economic benefit from certain legal services would explicitly imply a return of $8.20 on each dollar of funding for civil legal services. However, the program funding amount of $296.6 million includes funding to support legal assistance services in fields such as consumer rights, advanced care planning, and community legal education, the economic impacts of which were not quantified for purposes of this analysis. Accordingly, the amount of program funding resulting in the aforementioned economic impact of $2.4 billion is less than $296.6 million, meaning the return on each dollar of funding is greater than $8.20. While we have not estimated the funding directly attributable to civil legal aid, we believe a more reasonable estimate of a return on program funding to be a return of $10.00 on each dollar of funding for civil legal services.

Summary of Economic Benefits and Savings For Details^{Exhibit #}

I. Dollar Benefits to Clients and Their Families $887.4

A. Child and Spousal Support $46.6 1

B. SSI/SSD Income $372.4 2, 2A, 2B

C. Medicaid Funds Into NY State $346.8 3

D. Federal Benefits Other Than Above Into NY State $40.9 4

E. Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) Refunds into NY State $21.6

F. Wage Impacts of Immigrant Work Authorization $59.1 5

II. The Economic Multiplier Effect 6

III. Cost Savings for the Community

Avoidance of Emergency Shelter 7

Total Economic Impact (Sum of Lines I through III) $2.4 Billion

$260.6

Summary of Economic Benefits and Savings