Diseño del generador de eventos

Fisheries

In an overall assessment of the effects on the fisheries of Disposal Alternatives for the Ekofisk I Entities, one has to have in mind that the Ekofisk Area is of

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limited interest as a fishing ground for Norwegian (Valdemarsen 1994; Soldal et al. 1998) and other nations’ (see Chapter 5.4) fisheries. This limits the impacts that may occur to the fishing industry as a whole. The effects on local operations may nevertheless be of some significance.

Marine operations and marine transport activities will occur in connection with most of the Disposal Alternatives. Marine operations related to Disposal Alternatives for platforms will take place within safety zones.7_{Thus will not}

affect fisheries, and are not considered further in this Assessment. The marine operations for removal of pipelines, by contrast, would sometimes be outside a safety zone, and therefore the potential impacts on the fisheries are considered in that case.

Transport operations in connection with the different Disposal Alternatives will mean limited and increases in ship activity in some areas for short periods. Fishing vessels will have to exercise some caution in respect of this, but the transport operations are not expected to impede fishing.

The different Alternatives presented for the Ekofisk I Entities have different potential consequences on fisheries conducted in the Ekofisk and surrounding areas. The option to create a reef for fish in the Ekofisk Area presents major challenges for assessing the impacts on the fishing industry. On the one hand, such a reef will present an obstacle to present fishing operations in the area, and on the other it may create a new – albeit somewhat limited – branch of the industry.

According to the Norwegian Oil Industry Association (OLF) investigative method for impact assessments, the impacts on the fisheries are assessed by calculating the obstructed area and comparing with the statistics for catches in the vicinity. One problem with this approach is that the effects then appear to be very small, and thus by itself it is unsuitable for describing the overall impact experienced. The factors that have been identified as most important and therefore the subject of analysis here are as follows:

• Effect of new reefs on fisheries • Area excluded for fisheries

• Direct hindrance to fishing (damaged harvest and gear) Free passage at sea

Offshore installations represent a risk to shipping. How large this risk is will depend mainly on the extent of the shipping activities and the measures and systems used to identify the installation and avoid contact.

The North Sea is a heavily trafficked area, and some important shipping lanes pass the Ekofisk Area (Figure 7)). In addition, some fishing vessels operate in the area (see Section 5.4). The total transits of commercial ships past the map section below is about 5,000 per year, or 10–15 each day. According to Dovre (1997), about 560 of these transits will pass less than 10 nautical miles from the Ekofisk Center. The number of fishing craft in the area will depend on the season and vary from year to year. Based on a study done by Technica (1987), it is believed that there is a density of 2.6 craft per 10,000 sq.km, which means five vessels in the map section below. The importance of the area to free passage is thus assessed as being of moderate value.

In connection with removal of the Ekofisk I installations, extra vessel operations will be conducted during short time periods.

Some Disposal Alternatives will also result in a more extended or permanent hindrance to shipping.

There is less maritime activity in the vicinity of the two Norpipe booster platforms in the UK sector. The most important lane near booster platform 36/22A is the Lindesnes-Tyne/Tees lane, with about 320 annual passages. There is about twice that amount of traffic near booster platform 37/4A. Personnel safety

The estimated risks to personnel of the various proposed Disposal Alternatives were calculated in a separate project (DNV 1998-e). The project based its safety studies on a review of the feasibility studies for the various Disposal Alternatives. The risks of given operations were calculated based on historical track-records (accident frequencies, «FAR») and individual exposu- re coefficients (man-hours).

The risks are presented as the Potential Loss of Life (PLL), an expression of the chance that life will be lost during a given operation. For example, an ope- ration with a PLL equal to 0.5 means that there is a 50 per cent chance that life will be lost.

Costs and national supplies (goods and services)

National supplies were estimated based on the cost estimates for the respective Alternatives. Ekofisk West Ekofisk Albuskjell Cod Lindesnes – T ay/Forth Lindesnes – T yne/T ees Germany – Portland Marstein – Humber

Kvitsøy – Humber Stadt – OM1

Holmengrå – Humber

Stadt – Humber_{Kvitsøy – T}

yne/T ees Edda Annual traffic <100 100–500 500–1000 >1000 Sectorlimit Figure 7

Annual traffic along shipping lanes in the Ekofisk

Area (according to Siktec 1989). Note that lines denote main lanes and that some traffic may be off-centre of the nominal lane.

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The «Norwegian content» of goods and services connected with the Ekofisk I Disposal Alternatives is based on general knowledge of petroleum- related industries and information obtained from the field operator and the supplier industry.

The results of the employment estimates are subject to some uncertainties. The main sources of uncertainty are:

• Uncertainties in cost estimates for supplies. There is considerable uncertainty regarding these estimated costs, deriving from technology, weather conditions, installation condition, and so on.

• Evaluation of suppliers. Contracts may go to suppliers in other regions or countries, not those assumed in the calculation. This results in uncertainty regarding the Norwegian content of supplies and consequent employment effects.

Employment effects

This Impact Assessment employed a model for assessing the employment effects of each Alternative within different categories of trade and industry.

The assessment model bases itself on the estimated goods and service deliveries broken down by industry and year, and calculates – from that basis – the total production value created in industry as a result of these deliveries, not only within the supplier firms, but also within their sub- contractors. The production value is then converted into employment (jobs) calculated on a man-year basis, using the statistical production per man-year quoted for different industries (Statistics Norway, SSB, 1997). The result of these modelling calculations is the estimated direct employment effect within vendor/supplier companies, and the estimated indirect employment effects within subvendors/subcontractors (vendors and subconractors to the main vendors and contractors). The total is the project’s production effects.

The term «ripple effects» (direct and indirect effects) denotes the phenomenon whereby purchases of goods and services in one segment spreads impulses in industry and commerce which in sum enhance the total value added. The basis is that supplies for the primary purchase instigate a chain of new supplies «upstream» in industry. The overall effects are the sum of the direct supplies, the indirect supplies, and derived activities due to increased private consumption.