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Diagnosis de la condición de Rodamientos mediante ANN

Capítulo 5. DIAGNOSIS DE LA CONDICIÓN DE RODAMIENTOS MEDIANTE REDES NEURONALES

5.3 Redes Neuronales Probabilísticas (PNN)

5.3.2 Diseño de redes PNN

A major feature of developing countries is massive and incessant direct migration of rural dwellers to metropolitan cities in search of a better life. These immigrants, whose incomes are generally too low, more often than not find themselves in makeshift houses in the periphery of urban cities and, as a result, this creates a profound disruption, shortage of housing units and imbalance in the urban tissue (Akinruli, 2011). Housing in Nigeria is a highly contentious and politicised issue that is of great concern to administrators, scholars and the Nigerian general public. The influx of people into the urban areas, the natural population increase and insufficient responses by the government have contributed to the deterioration of the housing situation in Nigeria over time. The extent of this situation is such that the economic development and the welfare of the citizens are adversely affected (Aigbavboa, 2013). While decent housing is regarded as one of the rights of every individual, a huge number of the population in Nigeria lives in substandard and poor housing with many inconveniences due to, amongst other issues, spatial congestion and infrastructures overloads that cause problems in living comfort (Jiboye, 2011). Housing is often considered the third most important need of human beings after food and clothing, yet it is little understood and most often neglected in Nigeria. The contribution of housing to the national economy is so underrated that despite several studies and

reports of panels and committees that had highlighted its importance, little progress has been made in the provision of housing (Nigeria National Technical Working Group on Housing, 2009).

The housing problem in Nigeria is more critical in the cities, where a huge housing supply deficit exists, which is coupled with the dilapidated housing conditions, high cost of housing construction, and proliferation of urban slums and squatter settlements. As such, a large majority of urban residents, particularly low-income earners who constitute about 50 per cent of Nigeria‘s 155 million people are forced to live in conditions that constitute an affront to human dignity (Aigbavboa, 2013). According to Akinruli (2011), the rising urban population in Nigeria has mainly been attributed to the large concentration of economic gains from crude oil in urban areas. Rapid urbanisation and poor economic growth have compounded the problems of inadequate housing in Nigeria, especially for the low- income group. Besides the high rate of urbanisation in Nigeria, the housing challenge is compounded by inflated real estate values, influx of rural immigrants, deplorable urban services and infrastructure, and a lack of implementation of planning policies. This has led to a situation where existing housing stocks are inadequate to cater for the increasing population (Jiboye, 2011). As in many other countries, the phenomenal rise in population numbers and the spontaneous increase in size of most Nigerian cities have led to an acute shortage of decent and affordable dwellings. This deplorable urban housing situation has long been a major concern of the federal and state governments in Nigeria and, as a result, one of the critical challenges to effective governance in Nigeria is how to make housing adequate and sustainable. Seeing that the urbanisation process is irreversible, Nigeria must therefore turn the challenge into opportunities for growth and development (Kabir, 2004; Jiboye, 2011).

Despite the significance of housing, adequate supply has remained a mirage to the majority of Nigerians. Various authorities have proffered strategies for improving housing delivery in Nigeria, such as the co-operative housing model, simple land allocation system and affordable financing model (Kabir & Bustani, 2009). There is, however, still a gap between the need for housing and the capacity to acquire the desired housing type, resulting in a demand crisis for affordable housing in Nigeria (EFInA & FinMark Trust, 2010). According to research findings, about 60 per cent of Nigeria‘s population lives in substandard houses and the majority of them are low-income earners. Research also revealed that the housing deficit in Nigeria was estimated at between 14 million and 16 million units, and to reach 18 million units in 2020 (Akinruli, 2011; Nigeria National Technical Group on Housing, 2009). In spite of the fact that the Nigerian governments since independence identified the housing problem as a major priority, thus far it has not developed a vibrant mortgage market, and houses continue to be provided through the traditional approach of buying land and building over some years, which could be an individual‘s entire lifetime (Akinruli, 2011).

According to Ibimilua (2011), in Nigeria housing is generally inadequate in terms of quality in the rural areas, while the urban areas experience, in the main, quality problems although quantity is also an issue. This shortage of housing is one of the factors that contributes to the poor environmental quality in Nigeria. Twenty years on, millions of Nigerians are still homeless, while many others are living in indecent houses, despite the promulgation of the 1991 national housing policy for the purpose of ensuring that every Nigerian owned or had access to decent housing accommodation at affordable cost by 2000. The visible spread of slums in many of the country‘s major cities demonstrates the extent of the spiralling housing needs. The failure of the policy to address the housing challenge is due to poor implementation, corruption, bureaucracy and political instability, amongst other challenges. It was clear by the time that the civilian administration came into office on 29 May 1999 that the above-mentioned target would not be achieved as the supply of housing stock had failed to keep up with demand (Amaka, 2012).

Thus, the provision of affordable housing for its citizens has remained the principal focus of every successive government in Nigeria. This is because of the pivotal roles played by housing in national development and growth, on the one hand, and its being a necessity in the life of the people, on the other. Since Nigeria‘s independence, affordable housing has been the major policy concern of relevant housing and mortgage institutions. However, critics are of the view that despite the policy efforts, only the needs of the middle- and high-income classes are met, which defies the generally acknowledged fact that the right to housing is one of the most important basic human rights recognised in many international human rights treaties (Aigbavboa, 2013). Government efforts aimed at providing shelter, especially for the low-income earners, have not yielded expected positive results compared to the level of effort. This is because it has been apprehended as the product of a politically motivated official intervention in the housing crisis, usually at urban level, rather than a genuine concern to shelter the poor and needy. For instance, housing schemes designed for citizens, especially low-income groups, have been forcefully taken over by high- and medium-income earners (Aigbavboa, 2013). According to Shyllon (1999), most chairpersons of the allocation committees of these housing estates are politicians, who allocated the houses to their party members who neither had the need for them nor could be classified as low-income earners. In the same vein, Omoniyi (1994) notes that the housing corporations that are supposed to provide shelter for the public (low-income and disadvantaged group) only catered for the high-income groups who can afford or meet up with their stringent terms and pre-qualification conditions.