Dise˜ no para modelo de regresi´ on Poisson

5. Implementaci´ on de dise˜ nos Bayesianos 55

5.2. Dise˜ no para modelo de regresi´ on Poisson

September 2017 er 2017 ScheduleSchedule

1/(0(000 'l'lood ood ReRelala;v;veses55 *uc*uc Tape *i-orce

Tape *i-orce

For the ?eil"s of E"eater, For the ?eil"s of E"eater, famil$ ala$s comes rst% 7ut famil$ ala$s comes rst% 7ut hen one ?eil"

hen one ?eil" threatthreatens toens to rea) that on", the$ n" the rea) that on", the$ n" the onl$ a$ out of this

onl$ a$ out of this famil$ isfamil$ is mur"er%

mur"er% 1/

1/((00 'l'lood ood ReRelala;v;veses55 (our(our %omen and a (uneral

%omen and a (uneral

The 6ones famil$ li#es the oo" The 6ones famil$ li#es the oo" life, ith a popular usiness an" life, ith a popular usiness an" to lo#el$ "auhters% 7ut hen to lo#el$ "auhters% 7ut hen a ne houseuest n"s

a ne houseuest n"s s)elet

s)eletons in ons in the closet, trae"$the closet, trae"$ ensues%

ensues% 17

17(,(,00 'l'lood ood ReRelala;v;veses55 +e+e Said, She#s *ead@

Said, She#s *ead@

ith a Coral Bales mansion ith a Coral Bales mansion an" $acht clu

an" $acht clu memership,memership, life;s a each

life;s a each for accountants E"for accountants E" an" :aie, ut suspicion an" an" :aie, ut suspicion an" in"elit$ threatens famil$ in"elit$ threatens famil$ on"s%

on"s% 1

1(6(600 'l'lood ood ReRelala;v;veses55 "urder "urder "ansion

"ansion

7ruce an" ?arlene ouse 7ruce an" ?arlene ouse ha#eha#e ealth, success an" three ealth, success an" three on"erful chil"ren% 7ut ehin" on"erful chil"ren% 7ut ehin" close" "oors, a to-ic mi- of close" "oors, a to-ic mi- of scorn, >ealous$ an" ree" is scorn, >ealous$ an" ree" is aout to oil o#er%

aout to oil o#er%

1

1(2(200 'l'lood ood ReRelala;v;veses55 Souhern +elle

Souhern +elle

For Star)#ille couple 6oe$ an" For Star)#ille couple 6oe$ an" Nris Fulham, frien"s an" Nris Fulham, frien"s an" famil$ are one an" the same% famil$ are one an" the same% 7ut small ton hospitalit$ lea"s 7ut small ton hospitalit$ lea"s to "anerous liaisons an"

to "anerous liaisons an" mur"er%

mur"er% 20

20(1(100 'e'etrtraaeed5d5 *ancing 6ih*ancing 6ih *eah

*eah

6anet, a $oun "i#orcHe, is 6anet, a $oun "i#orcHe, is celeran her free"om ith a celeran her free"om ith a irls; niht% hen she;s foun" irls; niht% hen she;s foun" "ea", it ta)es police 35 $ears to "ea", it ta)es police 35 $ears to rin her mur"er to >usce% rin her mur"er to >usce% PR"MI"R"

PR"MI"R" 21

21(0(000 DiDisasappppeaearreded55 $os Angel $os Angel 1&($ear

1&($ear(ol" (ol" .nel Barcia.nel Barcia "isappears aer ri"in his "irt "isappears aer ri"in his "irt i)e% Frien"s sa$ he as chase" i)e% Frien"s sa$ he as chase" $ an S

$ an S eforefore he e he #anishe"%#anishe"% :onths later, a possile sihn :onths later, a possile sihn raises hopes%

raises hopes% 21

21((00 DeDevivil in thl in the Dee Detatailils5s5 "urder, &aun Syle

"urder, &aun Syle

?efence la$er ChiAuita Tate is ?efence la$er ChiAuita Tate is foun" stae" to "eath insi"e foun" stae" to "eath insi"e her oUce% ?etec#es n" her oUce% ?etec#es n" hairshairs clutche" in her han" ( ill this clutche" in her han" ( ill this clue lea" them to her )iller clue lea" them to her )iller 22

22(,(,00 rurue &ige &ighthtmamareres5s5 (riends $ie These

(riends $ie These

<anc$ 7oen ne#er ets the <anc$ 7oen ne#er ets the opportunit$ to sa$ oo"$e to opportunit$ to sa$ oo"$e to her husan" efore he su""enl$ her husan" efore he su""enl$ "ies% Mlus, :i)e :allo$

"ies% Mlus, :i)e :allo$ miraculousl$ sur#i#es to miraculousl$ sur#i#es to near(near( "eath e-periences%

"eath e-periences%

26(6(600 <a<aununteted d o)o)nsns55 Episode <

Episode < Qne of the

Qne of the most passionatmost passionatee paranorma

paranormal teams l teams in .merica,in .merica, the Tennessee raith Chasers, the Tennessee raith Chasers, in#esate the most haunte" in#esate the most haunte" an" terrif$in tons in the an" terrif$in tons in the nite" States%

nite" States% 00

00(2(200 !e!ell 'll 'locloc% Ps% Pscchihic5c5 %ha %ha Are ;iy#s Sec

Are ;iy#s Secres8 res8 ic)i con"ucts an

ic)i con"ucts an in#esin#esaonaon into the #iolent mur"er of i))$ into the #iolent mur"er of i))$ Q#erst

Q#erstreet% 7ut ill i))$;s reet% 7ut ill i))$;s spiritspirit ma)e an appearance to she" ma)e an appearance to she" liht on her "emise

liht on her "emise 01

01(1(100 4o4orbrbididdeden5 Dn5 Dining 9org 9or #ove5

#ove5 $a6s o) A4racton$a6s o) A4racton . hih(P$in a*orne$ an" one . hih(P$in a*orne$ an" one of his clients emar) on an illicit of his clients emar) on an illicit a@air% hen their secret a@air is a@air% hen their secret a@air is re#eale", the las of

re#eale", the las of a*racona*racon pro#e fatal%

pro#e fatal% 02

02(0(000 8h8ho o $i$illlled ed AnAngigiee Dodge5 $eith Morrison Dodge5 $eith Morrison Inves;gates5

Inves;gates5 5ar ?5ar ? Neith :orrison

Neith :orrison in#esin#esates theates the rutal 1&& mur"er of 18($ear( rutal 1&& mur"er of 18($ear( ol" .nie ?o"e in G"aho Falls ol" .nie ?o"e in G"aho Falls an" the contro#ersial confession an" the contro#ersial confession an" con#icon of Chris Tapp% an" con#icon of Chris Tapp% 02

02(,(, rurue &ige &ighthtmamareres5s5 (riends $ie These

(riends $ie These

"ies% Mlus, :i)e :allo$ miraculousl$ sur#i#es to miraculousl$ sur#i#es to near(near( "eath e-periences%

"eath e-periences% 55

Septemb

September 2017 er 2017 ScheduleSchedule

06(6(6// I Am I Am <o<omimicicidede55 TheThe Body n The 1ug

Body n The 1ug

?etec#e :cFa""en n"s that ?etec#e :cFa""en n"s that mur"er ma$ e a famil$ a@air mur"er ma$ e a famil$ a@air aer a o"$ is

aer a o"$ is foun" rappe"foun" rappe" up in a ru in an

up in a ru in an apartment% 7utapartment% 7ut hich famil$ memer is the hich famil$ memer is the )iller

)iller 0,

0,(2(2,, hhe Pere Per9e9ect Muct Murdrderer55 TheThe Body n The S6amp

Body n The S6amp

:iami usinessman Denr$ ?ia :iami usinessman Denr$ ?ia oes missin the niht efore a oes missin the niht efore a famil$ #acaon% Dis usiness famil$ #acaon% Dis usiness success has earne" him man$ success has earne" him man$ enemies ( e#en ithin his on enemies ( e#en ithin his on famil$%

famil$% 0

0(1(122 'e'etrtraaeed5d5 *ancing 6ih*ancing 6ih *eah

*eah

"ea", it ta)es police 35 $ears to$ears to rin her mur"er to >usce% rin her mur"er to >usce%

Monda

2 September 2017

0/(0(000 DiDisasappppeaearreded55 +ard $i)e+ard $i)e in he Big Easy

in he Big Easy

?ana hope" to lea#e <e ?ana hope" to lea#e <e Qrleans an" et custo"$ of her Qrleans an" et custo"$ of her )i"s, ut it;s not unl a

)i"s, ut it;s not unl a hurricane hits that an$one hurricane hits that an$one realises she;s missin an" the realises she;s missin an" the truth is out%

truth is out%

0/((00 MuMurdrder er !h!hose ose MeMe55 Snae Eyes

Snae Eyes

The o"$ of an uni"ene" The o"$ of an uni"ene" oman is foun" $ an

oman is foun" $ an aan"one" factor$% 7ut aan"one" factor$% 7ut

?etec#e ?emer$ is thron a ?etec#e ?emer$ is thron a cur#eall hen he reconises cur#eall hen he reconises the #icm at the centre of the the #icm at the centre of the crime% crime% 07 07(,(,00 A !rA !rimime to Re to Remememembeber5r5 Guess %ho8 Guess %ho8

hen a ealth$ man is

hen a ealth$ man is foun"foun"

shot "ea" in his home an" his

ife loc)e" in a closet,

"etec#es n" themsel#es a

crime here all is not as it

seems%

0

0(6(600 bbsesessissionon5 5 DaDar%r% Desires5

Desires5 The *e-il in he 5e6sThe *e-il in he 5e6s hile 6ennifer is

hile 6ennifer is reco#erinreco#erin from a tumour, she;s #isite" $ a from a tumour, she;s #isite" $ a reforme" e-(con% 7ut her

reforme" e-(con% 7ut her rat

ratu"e soon u"e soon turns to fearturns to fear hen it ecomes o#ious that hen it ecomes o#ious that he ants to )eep her as his he ants to )eep her as his on%

on% 0

0(2(200 'l'lood ood ReRelala;v;veses55 +e+e Said, She#s *ead@

Said, She#s *ead@

ith a Coral Bales mansion ith a Coral Bales mansion an" $acht clu

an" $acht clu memership,memership, life;s a each

life;s a each for accountanfor accountants E"ts E" an" :aie, ut suspicion an" an" :aie, ut suspicion an" in"elit$ threatens famil$ in"elit$ threatens famil$ on"s%

on"s%

10(1(100 44atatal "ncal "ncounountetersrs55 GameGame 2-er

2-er

. #iolent #i"eo ame that 18( . #iolent #i"eo ame that 18( $ear(ol" ?e#in :oore

$ear(ol" ?e#in :oore pla$spla$s osessi#el$ comes to life hen osessi#el$ comes to life hen he confronts policemen .rnol" he confronts policemen .rnol" Stric)lan" an" 6ames Crump an" Stric)lan" an" 6ames Crump an" "ispatcher .ce :ealer%

"ispatcher .ce :ealer% 11

11(0(000 DiDisasappppeaearreded55 $ong $os$ong $os $o-e

$o-e

.er a 5&($ear

.er a 5&($ear separaseparaon, 7oon, 7o an" Fontelle marr$ folloin a an" Fontelle marr$ folloin a hirlin" reunion% 7ut to hirlin" reunion% 7ut to "a$s"a$s efore Fontelle relocates to efore Fontelle relocates to California

California, 7o , 7o "isappears ("isappears ( here is he

here is he 11

11((00 MuMurdrder er !h!hose ose MeMe55 *omino E3ec

*omino E3ec

. ee)l$ ame of "ominoes at a . ee)l$ ame of "ominoes at a t$re shop turns "ea"l$ hen t$re shop turns "ea"l$ hen mas)e" men urst in shoon% mas)e" men urst in shoon% ?etec#e ?emer$ has onl$ 24 ?etec#e ?emer$ has onl$ 24 hours efore the case is ta)en hours efore the case is ta)en out of his han"s%

out of his han"s% 12

12(,(,00 A !rA !rimime to Re to Remememembeber5r5

The 0e6lydeads

Gn 1&8 Cher$l Mer#eler is foun"

ith a unshot oun" to the

hea"% 7ut as "etec#es "i

hea"% 7ut as "etec#es "i intointo

Cher$l;s past, the$ "isco#er a

orl" of fast cars, croo)e" cops

an" arson%

September 2017 Schedule

In document Diseño Bayesiano de experimentos para modelos lineales generalizados (página 76-0)