AMERICAN GEOMYTHOLOGIES REVISITED AS PART OF
AMERICAN GEOMYTHOLOGIES REVISITED AS PART OF DRAMATIC GEOPATHOLOGY
3.2 The Trope of Invasion in Dramatic Geopathology
3.2.1 Displaced Characters, Invasion and Victimage of Location
3.2.1 Official Poverty Incidence and Regional Disparities
The average minimum subsistence level (MSL) for 2010 was set at €71.72 (87 manats) per capita per month by the Law on ―The Minimum Subsistence Level in Azerbaijan for 2010‖ signed by the president Ilham Aliyev on November 26, 2009.19 That number was
€61.99 (70 manats) for 2008 and the official poverty rate given by the Ministry of Economic Development in 2008 was €69.61 (78.6 manats) per capita per month. The poverty rate for that year was estimated to be 13.2%, well over 36 percentage points less than that in 2001.20 The official (absolute) poverty rate fell by 2 percentage points in 2009 and became 11%.21
19 According to the ―The Law on the Minimum Subsistence Level‖ (MSL), No.768-IIQ, signed by the President of the Azerbaijan Republic on October 5, 2004, the MSL is defined as ―the total of a monthly cost of the consumption basket that is needed to maintain a person at a minimum level and obligatory payments‖. It is separately estimated for three different population groups: the working age population, pensioners and children. The average is calculated using the weight of these population categories in the overall population. MSL is used as an official poverty line. Therefore, the official poverty rates measure absolute poverty.
20 Source: Presidential Decree on ―State Program for Social and Economic Development of the Regions in 2009-2013‖ signed on April 14, 2009. Source: ―Azerbaijan Republic Poverty Assessment,‖ Report No.
24890-AZ, WB, June 2003.
21 Source: First year progress report on the implementation of the ―State Program for Social and Economic Development of the Regions in 2009-2013,‖ the Ministry of Economic Development, 2010.
84 Chart 3.1: Official Absolute Poverty Rates in Azerbaijan, 2001-2009
49.0%
46.7%
44.7%
40.2%
29.3%
20.8%
15.8%
13.2%
11.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Poverty incidence
Sources: First year progress report on the implementation of the “State Program for Social and Economic Development of the Regions in 2009-2013”, the Ministry of Economic Development, 2010; Statistical Yearbook of Azerbaijan 2008, SSC
As one can see from the chart below, in general, the official poverty incidence in the country fell steadily for the last 10 years. This happened in spite of the fact that the annual growth rate of the poverty threshold was higher than the official inflation rates (CPI) since 2001.22 One of the main reasons for this downward trend is high paced economic growth. Calculations based on the Central Bank of the Azerbaijan Republic shows that the annual real GDP growth rate averaged 16% over 2001-2009. The real GDP growth rates were extraordinarily high in 2005, 2006 and 2007 (26.4%, 34.5% and 25%, respectively).23 These were the peak years of the oil and construction boom when the decline in the official poverty rates was the steepest.
22 An exception was in 2007 when the annual nominal growth rate in MSL (10.3%) was slightly lower than the CPI (11.7%) (Chart 3.2).
23 Retrieved from http://cbar.az/assets/85/1.1.pdf.
85 Chart 3.2: Annual Nominal Growth Rate in the Minimum Subsistence Level and Inflation
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
%
Annual nominal growth rate in MSL (%)
CPI (%)
Sources: The growth rates are calculated based on the information retrieved from the Statistical Yearbook of Azerbaijan 2009, SSC, and The Law on the Minimum Subsistence Level in Azerbaijan for 2009.
The economic growth of the last decade was also accompanied by growth in real wages;
the main source of poverty reduction among the working poor. The annual growth rate of the average monthly real wages has been well over 14% since 2003 on average. The government of Azerbaijan has also gradually increased the minimum wage since 2001.
The minimum monthly wage rate went up from less than 23% of the minimum subsistence level in 2001 to over 95% in 2008.24 Narrowing the gap between the minimum wage and the official poverty line has probably contributed to a substantial decrease in official poverty incidence in the country during the last decade.
During the earlier years of the current decade, the average pension was substantially below the official poverty line. Moreover, the minimum pension was only 42% of the minimum subsistence level in 2001, which was clearly not enough to sustain the pensioners. The government of Azerbaijan gradually increased the minimum pension and brought it closer to the minimum subsistence level over the last several years. The minimum pension reached 95% of the minimum subsistence level in 2008. This government policy played a significant role in reducing official poverty by pulling many households with pensioners out of ―the officially poor‖ status and by mitigating the intensity of the poverty (―Statistical Yearbook of Azerbaijan 2009‖, SSC).
24 Estimates are based on data retrieved from http://www.azstat.org/statinfo/labour/en/004_1.shtml, in the
―Wages and Salaries, Expenditures Spent for Labour Force‖ subsection of the ―Labour‖ section on the SSC website.
86 The official poverty incidence is much higher in rural areas than in urban areas.25 The corresponding rates were 10.9% and 15.8% in 2008 (HBS 2008 report). The Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) 2008 data suggests that poverty incidence in rural areas are even higher than that in non-Baku urban areas, which was not the case about nine years ago (World Bank, 2010).
Official poverty rates are not available for the eleven economic regions in Azerbaijan.
However, the estimates based on LSMS 2008 data show that absolute poverty rates are the highest in Daghlig Shirvan, Sheki-Zaqatala, Aran, Guba-Khachmaz and Lankaran-Astara economic regions (World Bank, 2010). It should be noted that Daghlig Shirvan and Aran regions are ethnically homogeneous and mostly populated by Azerbaijani Turks, whereas Sheki-Zagatala and Guba-Khachmaz regions host large communities of different ethnicities such as Lezgins, Avars, Tats and Georgians. There is also a large Talysh community in Lankaran-Astara region. Unfortunately, the regional poverty rates are too aggregated for examining poverty and social exclusion among different ethnic minorities. It is impossible to tell if the ethnic minorities are more vulnerable to poverty than the Azerbaijani Turks living in the same region. A study on the social inclusion of socially vulnerable communities in Azerbaijan could be very useful in shaping the government‘s policies toward minorities. community
Updated official poverty rates for one of the most vulnerable groups in the country (IDPs and refugees) are not publicly available. The most recent absolute poverty rates for IDPs are provided in the ―Azerbaijan Living Condition Assessment Report‖ by the World Bank. However, these rates are not directly comparable with official poverty rates.
Nevertheless, this report shows that the poverty incidence is quite high among IDPs living in the non-Baku urban areas (World Bank, 2010).
3.2.2. Income and Consumption Inequality
The Gini index was based on the consumption expenditure data from the LSMS in 2008 and was equal to 0.31. This is 0.15 points less than the index estimate for 2001.
Consumption inequality was higher in cities than in towns and rural areas. The Gini index for cities, towns and rural areas was equal to 0.328, 0.287 and 0.271, respectively (World Bank, 2010). According to the results of the 2007 HSRP conducted earlier than LSMS 2008, the income-based Gini index was 0.32 for 2006, while the income inequality ratio was 4.9—this is the ratio of the total income of the top income quintile to the total income of the lowest income quintile. It should be noted that annual income per adult equivalent household member was used when calculating this ratio (CLED, 2008).26 HBS data yields much lower estimates of income and consumption inequality measures. In the
25 Urban-rural status of any settlement in the country is determined in an administrative manner, usually by the Milli Medjlis (the Parliament of Azerbaijan). As a general rule, any settlement with more than half of its working population being active in non-agricultural sector and with basic urban infrastructure is considered to be an urban area.
26 The number of adult equivalent household members was calculated by adding the number of household members who are above 16 years old and 0.67 times the number of children below 16 years old.
87 first year of the survey, the Gini index was estimated to be 0.365, while the inequality ratio was well over 6 (World Bank, 2003). However, estimates of the Gini coefficient based on HBS data seemed to be less reliable and were unusually low by being around 16-18% in all consecutive years.27