Efectos extrafiscales con respecto a las bebidas alcohólicas

According to the classical regional growth theory, there are five subsequent stages of regional economic development starting from a mostly agricultural, self-sufficient subsistence economy and progressing to export-oriented tertiary industrial production³⁶. The final fifth stage of regional development is the most difficult one to achieve, it represents a situation when a region specializes in tertiary production for export and supplies less developed regions with services goods and capital. However, North (1955) asserts, that this last stage is not evident and moreover, not essential for a sustained economic growth. Unlike neoclassical model, which assumes that primary and secondary sectors compete for scarce region-specific resources, North (1955) suggested that their growth is complementary. North uses the term “export base” to define those highly successful industries of the region, which exports goods or services to other regions. The export base manufacturing production is not a necessary condition for sustainable development of a region. Secondary and tertiary industries that develop due to the export base will help to broaden the export base in the future.

In the same study North suggests that an indirect effect of the export base is by far more important to the economy than a direct one. An output of residential industries depends exclusively on local demand, which is fuelled by an expansion of the export base and hence the two are closely interlinked. High revenues generated by the export base help to maintain a high level of spending and investment and hence sustain production of a wide range of services and goods in the domestic market, which have a potential to expand the export base in the future. Therefore, the region’s main growth driver is its successful export base. Thus, to understand and promote growth it is necessary to understand what geographic, political and other factors were fundamental in developing the export base.

While to measure its economic impact, it is vital to account for all those relevant direct and indirect effects.

A theory developed by North although fundamentally grounded in the US economic development can be applied to other countries if they meet the following two criteria (North, 1955 pp. 243-244): “1. Regions must have grown up within the framework of the

36 North (1955) referring to Hoover, E. M. and Fisher, J., 1949 “Research in Regional Economic Growth”.

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capitalist institutions and have therefore responded to the profit maximizing opportunities, in which factors of production have been relatively mobile. 2. Regions must have grown up without the strictures imposed by population pressure.”

Both of these statements are true for Kazakhstan after 1998. In fact, for economic purposes North (1955) proposes to redefine a region as a combination of industries concentrated around a common export base. In Kazakhstan, the economy was regulated by market forces and all prices have been liberalised by the late 1990s, including the exchange rate.

The Russian financial crises speeded up economic restructuring rendering labour and capital move from less competitive sectors. Another important factor is that Northian model focusing on regional development does not include the exchange rate which is irrelevant in that setting. The exchange rate appreciation caused by the export revenues could have significant negative impact on other tradable industries making their output relatively more expensive. However, by the end of the Russian financial crisis in 1998 mining and metals emerged as virtually the only exporting industries, thus being themselves responsible for any appreciation of the real exchange rate. Kazakhstan’s export base has broadened since, at least, in one sector. Kazakh banking and financial services are considered to be the best in terms of performance among the FSU countries and have already expanded into neighbouring countries. For example, according to the IMF (2008), in 2007 Kazakh banks accounted for 45 percent of all credits in Kyrgyzstan. It holds true that a fair amount of recognition has to be given to prudent government policies and the regulation of this sector, but the oil boom has been quintessential to success. Initially concentrated on mining industry banks gradually developed into other markets. An increased income stimulated private savings and investment managed through an already buoyant financial system.

Few authors implicitly embodied this framework in an attempt to estimate a wider contribution of the industry to the economy. Perhaps the most important for this study is the study by Ahammad and Klements (1999), who first considered the wider impact of the mineral industry in Western Australia (WA). The minerals industry played a significant part in the development of Western Australia in the 1990s. To estimate the degree of its importance for the local economy authors attempted to answer a question of what the development of WA would look like if there had been no minerals growth. Using a CGE

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framework the answer was found in three stages. First, the average growth rates for WA minerals in the 1990s were determined, which then regarded as a typical annual growth.

Second, those growth rates were used as an exogenous shock in the CGE model. Finally, by changing the signs of all the simulation results, the impact was interpreted as a loss of the economic activity that would occur if there was no expansion of the minerals sector.

Conducted simulations showed that the minerals sector accounted for around 50% of the total Gross State Product (GSP) growth in Western Australia. However, as expected, the results were sensitive to the model specification. Since the growth of the minerals production implies real appreciation of the exchange rate, the highest contribution to growth was observed when wages were fixed and the nominal exchange rate was fully flexible, as it entailed the smallest real appreciation. An employment level estimated separately using the linear relationship between GSP, real wages and employment growth rates was estimated to be 1.4% less in a typical year without minerals expansion.

In the follow up to the initial study by Ahammad and Klements (1999), Ahammad (2002) decomposed the agricultural output growth in WA into the growth of inputs to agricultural production and increase in productivity. He has shown that indirect benefits of agriculture, which are often not accounted for when analyzing sectoral contribution, were by 1.5 times greater than its direct contribution.

The current study follows a somewhat similar approach as in Ahammad and Klements (1999). However, rather than focusing on supply shock, we concentrate on the demand side and simulations are made of a several years average annual export growth of the oil industry in Kazakhstan. Using the CGE model allows to capture combined impacts of all factors such as inter-industry linkages, private and public spending, exchange rate, and other which are not accounted for when other techniques are used. Using the Northian framework and a Computable General Equilibrium modelling approach, the following sections present an attempt to estimate the spillover effect of the oil boom on Kazakhstan’s economy and a distribution of its benefits among general population.

98 5.3. Model and Data³⁷