1.- EFECTOS VASCULARES DE LA UROCORTINA

The aim of traditional paradigm in development is focused on the design of economic growth-based development programs to achieve significant economic growth without considering the environmental cost. Today, increasing demands for natural resources and their serious limitation on the one hand, and depletion and qualitative reduction of the primitive environmental resources on the other hand, has led the development orientations from growth-based to sustainable development approaches. In this new development paradigm, the economic, social and environmental indicators are the main values in planning development scenarios.

According to the Human Development Index in 2011, Carbone Dioxide (CO2) emission in the world (per capita) is equal to 6.4 metric tons, and emission growth rate over the period 1990-2007 is 36 percent.

While the CO2 emission per capita for Iran is 7 metric tons, and CO2 emission growth in Iran has grew more than twice having the value 118.3 (World Bank, 2011). These statistics clearly describe the adverse level of emissions and inappropriate environmental conditions as one of the factors to achieve sustainable development in Iran. Submitted Iran-Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) presented compulsory Green-House Gases (GHGs) emission reduction by 4 percent (unconditional GHGs reduction), and totally up to 12 percent (total amount of conditional and unconditional). Pledging GHGs emission reduction normally requires a revise in the economic growth and development strategies and policies that could lead to force an extra cost on the various sectors of national economy due to GHGs reduction. In this regard, there are several fundamental questions for policy-makers and planners:

- How much is the economic damage caused by the country's emission reduction programs?

- Which economic sectors have a greater potential to reduce GHGs with the least damage or cost?

What optimal combination of economic activities at the macro level can simultaneously meet the goals of economic efficiency (maximizing the value of production) and environmental sustainability (minimization of GHGs emission and/or minimization of water consumption), in other words, what strategies of economic development should be followed to be based on sustainable economic, social and ecological criteria under the restrictions resulting from emission reduction commitments and adverse effects of climate change on water resources of the country?

5.4.2. Methodology

The main objective related to this section of the national communication is to develop an extended input-output model and intergrate it in a mathematical programming model to assess the damage caused by emission reduction commitments on macroeconomic of the country and determine the optimal combination of the structure of economic activities based on the economic efficiency principles and

environmental sustainability. To achieve these objectives, it was used the integrated model of Environmentally Extended Input-Output and linear mathematical programming. Analyses have been based on input-output and in various studies for investigation of environmental issues by integrating energy components, GHGs gas emissions and water. (Lenzen,2001; Zhao et al, 2009; Wang et al, 2009;

Yung-Jaan, 2016; Feng et al, 2011; Bekchanov et al, 2012; Okadera et al, 2015).

To achieve the interested results, integrated model of input-output and mathematical programming was used to estimate the economic effects of GHGs emission reduction goals on the economy and various production sectors. Considering the Iran INDC, the GHGs emission reduction goals have been examined under two policy scenarios.

- Reduction of GHGs emissions by 4% (compulsory commitment) - Reduction of GHGs emissions up to 12% (contingent commitment)

Here economic losses resulting from emission reduction commitments estimated in each sector based on this hypothesis that achieving these goals are attainable through imposing restrictions on the capacity of production sectors. For this purpose, an input-output model is formulated as a mathematical programming for maximizing the value of economic sectors production. According the necessity of integration the economic with ecological criteria in national development plans, a multi-objective planning model was developed, so that it can provide the optimal combination of economic production activities simultaneously considered different objectives of policy-maker which sometimes “may be in conflict”

with each other in economic planning. In this model, three ideals are intended with the following order of priority:

- Achieving maximum gross production value (S1), - Minimization of GHGs emission (S2),

- Minimization of water consumption (S3), 5.4.3. Results

The results of GHGs emission inventory show that the intensity of the GHGs emissions in the whole economy of Iran is about 0.089 million tons of CO2 per one thousand billion Rials production. This statistics in the agricultural sector is about 0.059, in the extraction of crude oil, natural gas and other mines has been calculated about 0.134, in producing food and beverage products is about 0.065, and for textiles and wood and paper products are about 0.032 and 0.028 million tons of CO2 per one thousand billion Rials production, respectively. The most energy intensity among various economic activities is related to the transport sector, so that in this sector per one thousand billion Rials of production value, about 0.466 million tons of CO2 is emitted directly.

Direct consumption rate of water (virtual water content) in the total economy is 0.047 billion cubic meters per one thousand billion Rials production. In agricultural sector, about 0.63 billion cubic meters of water was directly consumed for the production with the expense of one thousand billion Rials. This amount of water used for production in the extraction of crude oil, natural gas and other mines is estimated about 0.0036 billion cubic meters, 0.0049 billion cubic meters in food and beverages products, and for textile, wood and paper products 0.003 and 0.0026, respectively. The highest water consumption rate in the various economic activities is related to the agricultural sector, so that in this sector per one thousand billion Rials production value, about 0.63 billion cubic meters of water has been consumed.

Results of adjusted multipliers and economic losses caused by restrictions on the level of production (reduction of thousands tons of carbon dioxide) for 14 collective activities are reported in table 4.25.

Adjusted multipliers obtained 1.725 for the agricultural sector indicates that if the restrictions imposed on the production capacity of this sector increase by one million Rials, the damage caused will be 1.725 million Rials in the whole economy.

Table (5.12): Estimated Damage Caused by the Reduction of One Unit (tons) Emissions in Each Economic Sector.

No. Activity gj ∆Xj Lj, modified Damage

1 Agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry and fishing 0.059 16.95 1.725 29.237 2 Extraction of crude petroleum, natural gas and other

mines 0.134 7.46 1.050 7.836

3 Food products, beverages / tobacco 0.065 15.38 2.284 35.138 4 Manufacture of textiles, clothing, leather and leather

products 0.032 31.25 1.812 56.625

8 Manufacturing of basic metals and metal products 0.106 9.43 1.669 15.745 9 Machinery, communications equipment, transport

equipment production and other manufactures 0.008 125 2.300 162.500 10 Generation, transmission and distribution of

electricity, gas and water 0.017 58.82 2.076 122.117

11 Buildings (private and public) 0.042 23.81 1.898 45.190 modified is the adjusted multiplier of production of (i) sector, Damage_iis the amount related to damage caused by the decline of the publishing unit of (i) sector on the entire economy.

Xj

 in table 4.25 shows the amount of reduction which is necessary in production value (billion) of each sector to reduce a thousand tons of GHGs emissions happening in those sectors. For example, 16.95 for the agricultural sector shows that if one thousand metric tons of GHGs reduction in agriculture sector is set as the goal, the production value of this sector reduced by 16.95 billion Rials. The amount of production reduction in the sector of agriculture, through its adjusted increasing multiplier (1.725), will impose a loss of about 29.237 billion Rials to the whole economy.

The amount corresponding to this loss for the extraction of crude oil, natural gas and other mines sector is around 7.836 billion per thousand tons of GHGs reduction. This value for the food and beverage sector, wood and paper and wood products, clothing and textiles, and finally petroleum and oil refining are equal to 35.138, 56.625, 51.321, and 121.333 billion Rials, respectively. The least economic damage caused by one thousand tone CO2 emission reduction with 3.575 billion Rials is related to the transport sector and to the contrary, the largest value with 122.117 billion Rials is related to transmission and distribution of electricity, water and gas. Results mentioned in table 4.26, in a general comparison show that the cost of reducing GHGs emission in the sectors with higher coefficient intensity of direct emission and at the same time with lower production multiplier. Therefore, parts with these features have a higher priority for the implementation of emission reduction policies. Based on the results of mathematical model, GHGs emission reduction by 4 percent in the total economy will reduce the production value about 28135.8 billion Rials, which includes 1.12 percent of the total national economy. Accordingly, the cost that each ton of GHGs reduction imposes on the economy is equivalent to 3.16 million Rials. Under this scenario, the top rank of reduction in production volume is belonged to the transport sector (-10.49%), production of crude and refined oil (-3.26%), production of chemicals (-0.84%), production, transmission and distribution of electricity, gas and water 0.8%) and extraction of crude oil, natural gas and other mines (-0.64%), respectively.

The results of the proposed model under the scenario of 12% reduction in GHGs emission show that in this case the reduction in the value of economy production is equal to 180078.8 billion Rials and this amount includes about 7.2 % of the total volume of the country's economy. Most of the decrease in production volume is found in the transport sector; extraction of crude oil, natural gas and other mines and agriculture sector each with 15%, chemical production 13.65%), production of basic metals (-10.88%), food and beverages products (with -9.01%) and then petroleum production and oil refining activities (-7.11%), respectively.

The results of multi-objective optimization models show that achieving a particular goal in development planning requires a trade-off with other goals. For example, the cost of pursuing the policy of reducing GHGs emission or reducing water consumption might be the loss of a part of the production value. The

policy should be a combination of different purposes and consequences of a choice to make. On this basis, the policy-maker must choose a combination of different goals and consequences caused by it.

Table (5.13): Summary Results of Multi-purpose Programming Patterns.