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Ejercicio del derecho al sufragio: la jornada electoral

In document Propuestas para una reforma electoral (página 108-152)

where.

P r o o f: see appendix 3A.

7=0 corresponds to the sum o f investment in asset oo by the three types o f investors. The role o f A resembles the Lagrange multiplier’s role in a problem where there is only unconstrained investors and therefore its name. These two variables play a role in the market variance and the covariance between the market and individual assets in a way that resembles the usual free market equilibrium.

P roposition 6. The total market variance, o h, is equal to;

oh = R

v

^{{(5^^+

w

^^Y - m l s ) + o l + o l

+ 2 '

P ro of: see appendix 3 A.

Although the formula above can be derived directly from applying the three types o f investment to the variance covariance matrix, a more convenient rearrangement o f terms will allow us to relate total market risk to total market return:

^

I o l jcTl

I r r +

R V

Also,

('■« + ® . . s ) U = ( T , +CTc

+ (Tr

^

Therefore,

= O"^ - R V J l

P roposition 7. The covariance between one o f the first N assets and the market portfolio, G , is equal to:

^i,M =

P roof: see appendix 3 A

P roposition 8. The return o f one o f the first N assets and the market return are related via:

ai,M

P ro of: B y dividing the formula in proposition 7 by the relationship found before:

and eliminating A w e obtain the result.

The relationship in proposition 8 resembles the usual CAPM risk return trade-off. In particular, the expected return o f any o f the free traded assets is positively related to 142

its diversifiable risk, namely a , ^ . By being able to measure the right indexes:

and ( j h - R V ^ l l , all the usual conclusions about CAPM can be

obtained in this generalisation. Som e additional properties are:

• The proportions o f constrained investors (measured by their holdings o f asset j and ) are irrelevant as determinant o f the risk-retum relationship. Only

the total investment in asset oo, matters.

• The risk tolerance o f each representative investor { ( j ] , and o ^ ) or the distribution o f them is irrelevant, as in the usual CAPM only the total market risk matters.

• The expected return and the variance o f asset oo do not play a direct role in the risk return relationship. Only measurements o f the residual from regressing roo on the returns o f asset 1 i o N are relevant, namely: and r«.,/yv.

From proposition 6 w e can see that the terms -r».i/v^oo and are

always positive"*^.

• The effect on price o f an increasing amount o f com pulsory holding w ill depend entirely on the realisation o f This can be positive or negative. H owever, the

T hey are equal respectively to:

and

o l + o ] - R V j o l g

Il ^\N^\N^\N

a l

A

and g iven that Q |n is positive definite and o \ — RV^CO^ g is n on -n egative, they are both p ositive.

total market return is positively affected by an increasing loo and this effect is larger than the one depending on roo.;a/- This w ill becom e evident in the next section after using a feasible measurement o f the market return.

The measurement A w ill overestimate the true market beta (defined

as the market premium) when there is more mandatory investment in asset °o and when the other N assets cannot effectively replicate the return o f asset oo so the residual variance R Voo is large.

In a w ell developed market, where there is enough diversification with assets 1 to

N, market frictions produced by mandatory holdings will be m ild or even

com pletely ineffective as the two terms i?Foo and roojN w ill go to zero.

For too large amounts o f mandatory holdings, even a well diversified market w ill be affected. If the asset subject to mandatory holdings cannot be w ell replicated by the free asset 1 to N, the effect over the risk-retum relationship w ill be important.

c.~ A s s e t oo is n o t trad ed in th e m a r k e t

A more realistic assumption in terms o f the relevant market aggregation is that this market index w ill not include any information on asset oo, its variance, its return or the amount o f trade in it. A market index will include stock market trade in equity that is normally not subject to any frictions, like short-sales restriction or mandatory

holdings. Our asset corresponds to claims in assets not traded in the market"''^. Indeed, non-measurable assets like contingent claims on human capital are left out from the market index. Therefore, in the same way as it happens with any feasible test o f the CAPM , the relevant market return is not measurable. The market index w ill therefore consist o f the observable assets; those freely traded in the stock market: asset 1 to N.

This limitation o f the market index w ill introduce problems when trying to estimate or test o f the CAPM. Roll (1977) argues that since the market portfolio must include all claims in the econom y, any test that uses an aggregation o f only marketable assets has a low power. W e identify below an explicit expression for the loss described by Rol^^

Consider and the return and variance o f a market consisting only o f the

investments in assets 1 io N. We can define the covariance between this exclusive market aggregate and one individual asset, /, as cr^*..

P roposition 9. and are related via:

W e identified a few ex cep tio n s to this in section 2 in this chapter. W hen restrictions are im posed on assets that are traded in the estab lish ed market these are norm ally not permanent.

There is som e ev id en ce that this effect m ay not be, in practical term s, as important as R oll indicated. Stambaugh (1 9 8 2 ) studied the properties o f the CA PM using various proxies o f the market portfolio. His identical inferences under different market proxies su ggested that the loss in pow er is not too significant.

P r o o f : see appendix 3A.

P ro po sitio n 10. cr^ and are related via;

and,

Where w e have called (7^ „ and C7^*^ each per unit correlation o f asset with the

respective market index M and A/*.

P ro o f: see appendix 3A.

P rop osition 11. , andcr^, ,. are related via:

P ro of: see appendix 3A.

P roposition 12. The risk return relationship is now:

^ i , M * " ^ ^ / o o - ^ o o X - T -

P ro o f: see appendix 3A.

I f w e call given that this is the best predictor o f and pi the

covariance-variance ratio above, w e have that;

n = A K

From this expression it is clearer what the effect o f the disappearing market frictions like compulsory holdings or short sale restrictions will be, over the risk-retum relationship. Assum ing that the return o f the mandatory holding is positive, positively correlated with the market and asset i and that Pi is not greatly affected by changes in Io., a lower amount o f mandatory investment w ill decrease the return for an equal level o f risk. Consequently, asset prices will rise.

Chapter 4

Empirical Analysis of the

In document Propuestas para una reforma electoral (página 108-152)

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