EL DECIR DE LA GENTE: LA LENGUA, HACIA UNA NUEV A LINGUISTICA

In chapter 2, it was shown how Aldrich expanded the rational choice argument to Black’s calculus of candidacy (1972), arguing that it is rational for an individual to run as a party candidate rather than as an Independent only if the utility gained from running as an Independent exceeded that of running for a party. Since most would tend to agree that the potential utility gained from running as a party candidate is higher than as an Independent, why then do some choose independence over party status? The applicability of the calculus of candidacy to an individual’s decision to run as an Independent is debated later in this chapter. Before moving on, it is worth reiterating the point made in chapter 2 that the vast majority of would-be candidates do not have a free choice between party or Independent status. For those ultimately running as an Independent, their choice is Independent or nothing, not Independent or party. Since most Independents achieve little electoral success, it can reasonably be assumed that the option of ‘nothing’ is more appealing, given the time and effort required to run for office. The aim of this chapter is therefore to determine why some individuals choose the life of an Independent rather than nothing, and whether they possess certain characteristics that distinguish them from those who choose the ‘nothing’ option.

4.3 Data

To determine why Independents decide to run, a survey of Independent and party candidates was conducted immediately after the 2004 local elections In addition, respondents were also asked to return a sample of their election literature, which was used to determine the nature of their candidacies (see below).

Rather than replicating Denver and Hand’s methods of surveying election agents, I chose to survey the candidates themselves. This was largely because the focus of my study is Independent candidates, who tend not to have a full-time election agent, especially at local elections, and it is usually just the candidates themselves who have the best knowledge of their campaign details. A four-page questionnaire with 35 questions was sent by post to each of the 297 Independent candidates, and to 556 of the 1,665 party candidates (see back of thesis). Independents received a slightly different version that had an extra five questions pertaining specifically to their Independent status. Since there can be a difference in behaviour between urban and rural candidates, 353 surveys were sent to party candidates for county councils, and 203 for those running in city councils. This was done to enable a comparison between the two groups in further studies of campaigning emanating from this thesis that looked at party candidates. Ensuring the inclusion of a reasonable number of both city and county candidates was necessary for the controlling of particular effects that might be unique to a particular locale.

The quantity to survey from each party was based on their number of candidates as a proportion of total candidacies in city and county councils. This was done to ensure a reasonable weighting of responses so that one party would be not overly represented in the final dataset. Since all Independents were targeted, this explains why Independents would probably need to be weighted down in an inclusive study on campaigning that looked at all candidates.

The party respondents were chosen at random from a list of their party’s candidates within the two separate forms of councils. Details of the numbers of questionnaires sent and returned according to party affiliation are detailed below in table 4.1.

Table 4.1. Distribution and survey response rate Party Surveyed Respondents % Response rate

Fianna Fáil 183 95 51.9 Fine Gael 150 94 62.7 Labour 72 48 66.7 PDs 43 26 62.8 Greens 49 24 49.0 Sinn Féin 40 24 60.0 Independent 297 179 60.3 Others 19 14 73.7 Total 853 504 59.1

Source: 2004 candidate survey.

The questionnaire was posted one week after the elections, and was followed up by a reminder postcard three weeks later to those who had not yet returned it. Two weeks later, the questionnaire was re-sent to all respondents yet to reply. This labour-intensive procedure produced a very satsifactory final response rate of 59 percent (see table 4.1), which exceeds that achieved by Denver and Hands (1997) (53 percent), and Gilland (2003) (47 percent) in similar studies. The response rate is of particular importance when making inferences from surveys. A low response rate means that there is an increased probability of the sample data being not randomly selected; that is, those who did respond may not be reflective of the random sample originally drawn. Consequently, the random sampling error can increase, resulting in unreliable findings. Such biases are less likely to occur in a candidate survey because of the low levels of heterogeneity amongst same party candidates (as opposed to voters), reducing the variance in the sample. In any case, the reasonable response rates means that unreliable findings are less likely to occur, especially considering the rates being larger to other candidate surveys. Replicating the methodology of Denver and Hands (1997: 322–323), the representativeness of the responses can be checked against a few variables, notably party vote and turnout. As table 4.2 below indicates, the figures for the constituencies with

respondents are quite similar to the national mean, which indicates that the campaigns covered by the sample survey are very representative of all campaigns.

Table 4.2. Representativeness of response constituencies Fianna Fáil respondents Fine Gael respondents Independent respondents

Fianna Fáil vote share 32.1 31.6 30.9

Fine Gael vote share 28.8 29.8 27.4

Independents’ vote share 12.1 11.6 15.0

Turnout 59.7 59.4 59.9

Source: 2004 candidate survey.

Overall, the candidate survey is an important contribution to the political science literature, as it is the first known detailed study of actual local campaigning (as opposed to expenditure effects) under the PR-STV electoral system. The questionnaire as detailed at the back of the thesis indicates the richness and detail of the data acquired from the survey that can be used for further studies beyond this dissertation. Questions on a wide variety of aspects of campaigning were asked, details of which are provided in both this and the next chapter. When combined with the expenditure returns that were acquired from candidate and city councils, this dataset gives an added importance to this study, as it is the first known comprehensive national analysis of grass-roots campaigning in the Irish political system