EL NIVEL DE RIESGO DE INCENDIO

The decision-m aking time frames have an im portant influence on both the supply and dem and o f facility space. In a steady state organisation, the time horizon o f business plans usually covers up to 3 years (BAOG, 1992), or between 4 and 5 years (Das, 1991:52). The irregularity o f these plan recom m endations is best described by Das who cites “the difference in plan recom m endations in terms o f the relative aggressiveness or risk-taking propensities o f the ... executives” (Das, 1991:49).

Similarly, the time frames for facilities would have life cycles ranging from 50 to 70 years: the environm ent services lasting for 15 years; furnishings for 5-7 years and space-Lise in terms o f weeks and months (DEGW & Teknibank. 1992). These studies have shown that the time characteristics o f buildings vary according to the life expectancy o f the structural elements, the servicing system and the spatial division o f the building, while the time characteristics o f function and use vary with the type and organisation (Nutt, 1988:133).

The above exam ples indicate that planning time frames are characterised as a calendar or clock time (Das, 1991). which could be problem atic if changes were to occur before an anticipated time plan matured. So how could management respond effectively and efficiently on unexpected changes in dem and? One response could be to solve space-time problem s with long-term resources, and more positively, to organise the space planning programme in such a way that the appropriate long-term resources are available, within which short and medium term needs can be efficiently and effectively met (BAOG, 1992). The anticipated com plexity was explained by Little (1987:171). who stated that “such prem ature decision-m aking is a com m on difficulty in long-term project management, and can be attributed to discrepancies between the time frames governing the planning cycles operating at different levels” .

The space-tim e managem ent method proposes that the tim e frame for decisions is classified as follows: (i) short-term /tactical m easures for responses which require im m ediate attention, (ii) m edium -term /operational m easures for responses which require regular attention, and (iii) long-term /strategic measures for responses which might require attention in the future. The time dim ension is based on the level o f certainty that an event will occur in the organisation. The shorter the tim e frame o f changes anticipated, the more certain the planning horizons and the more im mediate the decision, thus necessitating tactical measures. Conversely, the longer the time frame o f changes anticipated, the less certain the planning horizons and the more eventual the decisions, thus calling for a com bination o f strategic, operational and tactical measures. At this point, three tentative hypotheses have emerged which necessitate a space-time managem ent approach to be considered in rapidly changing organisations.

7.3.4.1 H vpothesis 1

Given contem porary and future conditions, the traditional m ethods for estimating space requirem ents will becom e increasingly inadequate.

Applied research in the 1980s and 1990s (see A ppendix 1, A2) has identified the major lim itations to traditional approaches to space m anagem ent in contemporary conditions, particularly the over-estim ation o f spaces required, uneven distribution o f spaces, insufficient provision o f space types, inefficient space dem arcation and extreme levels o f utilisation occurring at all levels o f the organisation. Although each has different and multiple causes, the most significant cause o f these inadequacies has been traced to the simple 'space per person' criterion as explained in Chapter 6.0.

7.3.4.2 Hvpothesis 2

The explicit inclusion o f time within the space managem ent procedures is likely to result in more reliable methods for estim ating space requirements, allocating space and adjusting the balance o f supply and demand.

This is supported by the developm ent o f the conceptual framework o f space-time management. On the management o f the dem and-side, the quantitative measure for space which is based on full-time equivalent (FTE) people hours load will incorporate a forecast o f possible future needs, so as to ensure that a real dem and for space is estimated at each level o f the organisation. On the supply side, the quantitative measure o f space hours availability and its relationship to the level o f availability, will ensure that a real supply o f space is attained at each level o f the facility. On the demand and supply interface, the utilisation factor, and its relationship with the level o f satisfaction in the duration o f use and occupancy will ensure that a reasonable utilisation is targeted. The attainm ent o f balance between supply and demand will depend on the acceptable level o f tolerance o f space utilisation across the different levels o f the organisation and not on the spatial fit-factor.

7.3.4.3 Hvpothesis 3

A space-time management approach will provide a more viable and secure basis for the planning and management o f space than the traditional methods.

Firstly, it will provide a better forecasting m ethod for estimating the quantitative and qualitative space requirements. It will provide better estimates o f the 'real' dem and/supply for space (actual/effective) and a richer view o f the variety o f spaces required over time. Secondly, an improved allocation and use procedure will allow flexibility in spatial adjustments for m inim ising wastage. Finally, it will provide an 167

expert basis for a com prehensive m anagem ent response system, incorporating the basic time frames and relating these to the m anagem ent problem s and appropriate management options. This will be developed in Chapter 8.0 and reported in Chapter 9.0.

These hypotheses have some basic issues which m ust be addressed. The next section will summarise the issues and establish some operational description on the claim that the space-time managem ent method is more advantageous than the traditional space managem ent method.