Part I The theoretical background
Part II The key findings and summary of the publications Part III Appendix I – published papers
Part IV Appendix II – bibliography from the project ‘Practical Uncertainty Management in a Project Owner’s Perspective’ (the PUS project)
Part V Appendix III – References
The thesis consists of nine chapters. Chapter 1 (introduction), Chapter 2 (research method), Chapter 3 (the PUS project), and Chapter 4 (projects and uncertainty management theories) provide the theoretical background for the thesis and their purpose is to define the context my research focus.
Part 1 of the thesis covers uncertainty management in a single project, uncertainty management as a part of project management, and uncertainty management during the project life cycle.
Part II of the thesis consists of the remaining five chapters, in which I discuss uncertainty from different perspectives in a single-project environment. Chapter 5 focuses on myths and challenges relating to uncertainty, and uncertainty analyses as concept. Chapter 6 discusses how, in the uncertainty management literature, stakeholders and actors have been reported as influencing the focus and the results of the uncertainty management process. Chapter 7 focuses particularly on the challenges of including opportunities in the uncertainty management process. In Chapter 8 I present my propose method for practical uncertainty management, and in Chapter 9 I present my conclusions and recommendations for further research.
Background – structure and focus
This thesis builds upon 15 papers that I have published over a period of six years. The papers were been developed from collected data and tested ideas and concepts in three different research projects. In Chapters 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8, I summarize and present some of the main findings and contributions from the papers. The papers that these chapters build upon are listed in Tables 4 and Table 5 in Chapter 2, and can also be found in their original, unedited manuscript form in Appendix I.
The elements presented in these chapters are based on my research efforts and reflections combined with those of other scholars, namely my co-authors. For most of the papers, a literature review was part of the writing process, which in turn was part of the deductive-inductive approach upon which this thesis is built. I have chosen to keep the plural form ‘we’ in these chapters, since the papers were produced together with two or three other researchers. Since Chapters 4–8 are based on published papers, I have kept as many of the original ideas and concepts in these chapters as possible. As a consequence, some of the chapters contain a mix of theory and empirical discussion.
This choice was made so that it should be possible for readers to understand and read this section of the thesis as a narrative, although it also means that what is new and what are the various co-author’s contributions to the research in this part of the thesis may be less apparent.
The form of this thesis has an impact on how Chapter 2 is built up. A research paper has to follow the strict rules stipulated by the editors. Often, a paper should be a maximum of 10 pages, not more than 4000 words, contain one or a maximum of two ideas or contributions, and so forth. While these guidelines are made to ensure that published papers are focused, in my case they also mean that the research methodology aspects is quite limited and described quite generically in some of the papers.
I have therefore chosen to go deeper into research methodology as a topic in Chapter 2, partly to overcome some of the shortcomings that are clearly evident in some of the papers, and partly to reflect and learn more about research methodology as part of my job as a researcher.
The organization of the thesis (see figure 4)
Chapter 1 presents the rationale for and background to the study. This chapter includes a short introduction on why this research was started, and presents the four research questions that have guided the development of this thesis.
Chapter 2 gives an overview of different methodological approaches to research in project management research and presents the approach used in this thesis. This thesis is a combination of a monographic narrative and many short papers developed in many projects over several years (see Table 4, Table 5, and Figure 7). Chapter 2 starts with a short introduction to the different research strategies in use in the social sciences in general and research on projects in particular. Then the research design and the research model for the thesis are presented, followed by a short introduction to the 15 papers and a summary of the methodological approaches in these papers.
Chapter 2 ends with a discussion of the limitations of my research strategy.
Chapter 3 gives a short summary of the PUS project. The PUS project had a significant influence on my research agenda over a six-year period and a lot of my data and experiences in practical uncertainty management were acquired during the project. I have therefore chosen to highlight some of the theoretical and practical results of the PUS project, and I give short overview of the impact that research on uncertainty management has had on the participating organizations discussed in this chapter.
Chapter 4 provides an overview of the theoretical fundament that I consider relevant for this thesis.
Uncertainty management has been a part of the PM development journey from the beginning.
Object goal delivered
Planning phase Execution phase
Project management
«Living uncertainty management»
Human &
organization aspect
Model &
Methods
Tools and techniques
4
5
8 7
6 9
1 2 3
Figure 4 Logical framework for the thesis
Chapter 5 focuses on how uncertainty is understood and analysed in projects in Norway, and on some of the challenges in current uncertainty analyses and their missing link to daily uncertainty management in projects.
Chapter 6 deals with how the human and organizational aspect plays a part in the uncertainty management process. Is uncertainty objective or is it dependent on roles, attitudes, experiences, and how it may impact the different stakeholders during the project? The chapter focuses on how people’s mindsets and roles in the project play a part in how uncertainty is managed, and it focuses mainly on the human and method aspect of the ‘living uncertainty management’ concept.
Chapter 7 focuses on the challenges faced when dealing with opportunity as a part of the traditional risk management process.
Chapter 8 focuses on how some of the challenges presented in Chapters 5, 6, and 7 can be addressed using a step-by-step process for practical uncertainty management: a nine-step framework for identifying, analysing, and managing uncertainty in practice.
Chapter 9 presents my conclusions. The four research questions are discussed, some of main contributions of the thesis highlighted, and suggestions for further research are discussed.
The full publications that Chapter 3–9 are built on are presented in Appendix I. Appendix II contains a complete bibliography of the papers and publications from the PUS project, to enable a more complete list of all paper that I have co-authored be reviewed. The thesis ends with a list of references in Appendix III.