Over the last three decades the rate of agricultural growth in SSA has not kept pace with population growth. In order to achieve a respectable rate of economic growth, provide food security and reduce poverty, the agricultural growth rate must be significantly increased in the future. Because of finite land resources and expected high population growth rates, land-labor ratios are expected to decline by 2020 to levels currently found in Asia. Consequently, intensified systems of production will be increasingly required. The question that arises for technology generation and transfer institutions, is whether the conditions that existed in Asia in the mid 1950s and early 1960s, at the start of the green revolution will exist soon in SSA, thus allowing the high input, irrigation based, infrastructure dependent technology that fueled the green revolution to be widely used in the future, even though not successfully used in the past. The question is relevant since many research institutions catering to the needs of SSA are geared up to produce such technology.
In this paper it has been shown that the investment costs of putting in place by 2020 the irrigation and rural road systems that existed in India at the start of the green revolution,
are almost certainly beyond the capacity of the HST countries. They will, therefore, be forced to rely on a different type of intensified agricultural technology to fuel agricultural development. The basic characteristics of such technology include input and infrastructure efficiency, high returns to seasonal labor and sustainability. While some of these characteristics have been identified by other authors, the feeling that somehow things will change and available green revolution technologies can be used in the near future has persisted. It is now indispensable the we put this dream to sleep.
A review of presently available technology shows that the stock of technologies that meet the characteristics enumerated in this paper, is inadequate to meet the demands for agricultural development in the next 10-20 years. Increased attention therefore needs to be given to producing the desired technologies.
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