2. METODOLOGIA
2.9. Diseño de los elementos del sistema SCADA
2.9.8. Elementos auxiliares
out-of-school
populations are in
Nigeria, followed
by Pakistan,
Burkina Faso,
Ethiopia, the Niger
and Kenya
P r o g r e s s t o w a r d s U P E : n a t i o n s a t t h e c r o s s r o a d s 0 Brazil Philippines Kenya Mozambique Burundi India GhanaPakistan Liberia Congo Lesotho Nigeria Yem
en
Timor
-Leste Guinea Turkey Gambia Niger Senegal
Burkina Faso Ethiopia Eritrea Mali C. A. R. Djibouti Nepal 20 40 60 80
% of out-of-school children unlikely to enrol
100 Female Male
Figure 2.12: Percentage of out-of-school children unlikely to enrol, by gender, 2006
Note: Countries are sorted by the highest percentage, independent of gender. Source: Bruneforth (2008).
3. These figures are intended to demonstrate the likely magnitude of the out-of-school population and are not as precise as those in Table 2.5. They are calculated using GERs, which underestimate the out-of-school population of primary school age because GERs include enrolled children outside the official age range. 4. Primary gross enrolment ratios increased from 48% to 61% between 1999 and 2003. 5. Between 1999 and 2006 the GER in the Sudan rose from 49% to 66%. Estimates for 2015 are based on a linear projection of all GER information between 1999 and 2006.
0
0
2
Education for All Global Monitoring Report
C H A P T E R 2
Another three of these seventeen countries – Ethiopia, Mozambique and Yemen – also perform strongly in terms of projected percentage declines in out-of-school populations, with annual declines of over 10%. However these countries will not achieve the 2015 target without increased effort.
The remaining eleven out of seventeen countries reduce out-of-school numbers by less than 10% annually and will miss the 2015 target.
What of countries not covered in the projection? In terms of population, the major absent players are China, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Sudan. China is well placed to ensure that all children are in school by 2015. Prospects for the two others are less certain, but hardly encouraging. The Democratic Republic of the Congo had about 10 million children of primary school age in 2005.
Using the latest information on primary school enrolment, a conservative estimate would put the number out of school at 3.5 million.3The limited data on enrolment expansion between 1999 and 2003 suggest that progress has been slow and the country is unlikely to meet the 2015 goal.4A similar pattern emerges in the Sudan, which in 2005 had around 6 million children of primary school age. Extrapolation from GERs would suggest that about 2 million of these children were out of school. While the Sudan has made steady progress since 1999 the country is not on course to enrol all primary school aged children by 2015. Without additional effort approximately 1.3 million children would still be out of school by 2015.5In both the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Sudan, three of the most vital requirements for changing the current trajectory are peace, stability and reconstruction. India 94 7 208 99 626 -24 Bangladesh 92 1 371 98 322 -15 Brazil 96 597 98 248 -9 Nigeria 65 8 097 73 7 605 -1 Pakistan 66 6 821 81 3 707 -7 Burkina Faso 48 1 215 64 1 062 -1 Ethiopia 72 3 721 93 1 053 -13 Philippines 92 953 93 919 -0.4 Niger 44 1 245 72 873 -4 Kenya 76 1 371 89 859 -5 Ghana 65 967 81 712 -3 Turkey 91 729 91 710 -0.3 Mali 61 793 76 628 -3 Mozambique 76 954 94 289 -12 Yemen 75 906 94 265 -13 Iraq 89 508 95 246 -8 Senegal 72 513 90 228 -9 Subtotal – 37 969 – 20 352 – Remaining 117 countries included in projection – 10 387 – 8 341 – Total – 48 356 – 28 693 –
Table 2.5: Projections of out-of-school populations in 2015 for countries with more than 500,000 children out of school in 2006
TNER for latest year (2004–2007) Children out-of-school in 2004–2007 (000) Projected TNER (2015) Estimated out- of-school children in 2015 (000) Average annual change in out-of- school population (%)
Notes: Countries are included if available information indicates they had out-of-school populations of over 500,000 in 2006. Countries are ranked according to the size of their estimated out-of-school populations in 2015. See Annex, Statistical Table 5, for detailed country notes.
Sources: TNER projections: Education Policy and Data Center (2008a); population projections: UIS database. On track to achieve UPE in 2015
T H E D A K A R G O A L S : M O N I T O R I N G P R O G R E S S A N D I N E Q U A L I T Y
Out-of-school trends and the projections to 2015 highlight once again the importance of public policies. On average, the percentage of children out of school in developing countries is inversely related to income: as wealth rises, the incidence of children not in school declines. But income is not an absolute constraint. Nigeria is far wealthier than Ethiopia and has access to large revenue flows from oil exports, yet Ethiopia is greatly outperforming Nigeria in progress towards UPE and reduction of out-of-school numbers. Similarly, Pakistan is wealthier than the United Republic of Tanzania or Nepal, yet its slow progress towards UPE will leave it second only to Nigeria in terms of projected out-of-school population in 2015. While the underlying causes of variable performance are complex, governance figures prominently. Ethiopia, Nepal and the United Republic of Tanzania have increased overall investment in education and strengthened their commitment to equity. Nigeria and Pakistan combine weak governance with high levels of inequity in finance and provision (see Chapter 3).