ELEMENTOS MECÁNICOS

A natural dimension in the design of scenarios is the very general concept of social

development, or more specifically economic, social or political development. What will

the future be like if there is growth, stagnation or recession? This dimension is included as an independent variable in “Scenarios of eGovernment in 2010”, where it leads to various possible futures: A Prosperous and Just Europe, A Turbulent World and Recession and Reorientation. This variable is also implicit in several of the scenarios that have a stronger focus on public administration. In “Scenarios of governments in 2020”, stable or disruptive environment form one variable of three in the scenario cross, and depicts a society characterised either by economic growth, a balanced world order and living in harmony, or a society with cyber crimes, religious tensions and large social divides.

Another dimension that is incorporated in social development in “Scenarios of eGovernment in 2010” is the extent to which society is characterised by integration or

fragmentation. In the scenario A Prosperous and Just Europe, society is more highly

integrated than in the conflict-filled scenario A Turbulent World and the decentralised scenario Recession and Reorientation.

This dimension of integrated or fragmented government is also fundamental as one of the axes in the scenario cross in “The Future of eGovernment”, where integrated

government gives rise to the scenario The State.se with direct access for users to

government agencies via a national portal, while in scenario The Uninvited Guest

fragmented government gives free scope to a private portal to become the interface

between citizens and their government. This aspect is also dealt with in “Scenarios of governments in 2020”, where government scope is either all-inclusive, retaining

everything in-house, or focus on core business, outsourcing as many activities as possible to the private or civic sector.

The dimensions public–private, state–business and state–citizen constitute independent variables in several scenarios. In “Scenarios of eGovernment in 2010”, the

confrontation or balance in the relation between government and the private sector leads to different trends in the development of public administration. “Government in 2020. Taking the long view” works with a scenario cross in which one of the variables is degree of government intervention in the economy, which may be high or low depending on whether government itself is responsible for finance, communication, education and healthcare services or governs by regulating the market.

A specific feature of “Scenarios of eGovernment in 2010” is the dimension degree of

public support for environmental sustainability, where strong support characterises the

scenario Recession and Reorientation. Sustainability plays a part in “eGovernment beyond 2005”, but in the sense of sustainable modernisation of public administration or robust government. In “Scenarios of eGovernment in 2010”, too, we can find a reference to “robust strategies for the eGovernment of the future”.

The attitude towards government is one of the three independent variables in “Scenarios of governments in 2020”, where trust leads to faith in government, participation in policy-making processes, and a sense of fair decision-making with the government while distrust is characterised by non transparency, ignored participation and lack of acceptance of government decisions. In “Government in 2020. Taking the long view.”, one of the variables in the scenario cross is citizen attitude to privacy and

surveillance on a scale from high to low acceptance. This variable gives the scenarios a

slightly different approach than the other scenarios studied.

Several of the scenarios and visions work with dimensions that are specifically linked to the development of government towards an increasing degree of eGovernment and eServices: How rapid is the change and how radical is it?

“Scenarios of eGovernment in 2010” includes a variable that more specifically describes the rate of development of ICT, from a dynamic to a declining rate of development, where the dynamic option has a major and comprehensive impact in A Prosperous and Just Europe but only affects a minority in A Turbulent World. In Recession and Reorientation development is in decline.

“The Future of eGovernment” takes the view of the user when discussing how

advanced the use of computers will be among the public, which in one scenario leaves a

gap between generations and a challenge to government to combine the demand for equal treatment of citizens with a varied degree of computer maturity.

The scenario, or rather the vision, “eGovernment beyond 2005” uses the two dimensions modernisation process and co-operation and coordination process to

describe potential models for public administration in the future. The move towards the coordination and integration of the different parts of the public administration system is also outlined in the Swedish studies “Towards a Modern and Consolidated Public Administration” and “eServices in the Public Sector”, but most explicit in “A National Information System”.

In “A National Information System” from 2007 a scenario cross is formed by using the two variables degree of central coordination of public services and degree of

integration of public agencies’ systems and processes for government. Central

coordination aims at political solutions as in the scenarios Guide and One-stop-shop, while decentralised coordination leaves room for market and a range of private solutions for providing public eServices, as seen in the Information Chaos scenario.