Elementos que los caracterizan , - GESTIÓN PEDAGÓGICA

2.3. GESTIÓN PEDAGÓGICA

2.3.2. Elementos que los caracterizan ,

handle. Other components that cannot be replaced are those that are obsolete or out of production (e.g. old I&C systems).

A life assessment was made for each of the SSCs in these groups. These assessments and the component prognosis were based on:

— The results of the NPP life management programme, including the results of AMPs, typical TLAAs, obsolescence management and health monitoring history.

— Safety upgrade requirements resulting from PSRs, international review missions, the post-Fukushima stress tests and specific expert opinions.

For those SSCs with a prognosis shorter than the start of LTO, necessary measures were suggested such as replacements, modifications, reconstructions, repairs or new ageing management mitigation actions. Where it was deemed appropriate, equivalent but less onerous measures were studied and adopted. Costs were estimated based on the experience of equal or similar measures implemented in other parts of the same NPP or in similar NPPs in the industry at large. Where there was a lack of experience, costs were based on vendor opinion with the approval of the design authority. The schedule to which each measure was implemented depended on:

— The SSC’s expected remaining life;

— The SSC’s expected remaining life after the measure was implemented;

— The duration of LTO;

— The planned unit outages and their duration.

After all cost drivers were reviewed, the related costs were estimated and the overall risk assessment was performed. The economic parameters NPV and levelized production costs were determined using a typical economic model with the following inputs:

— Costs of the improvement measures defined in the technical evaluation study;

— Normal NPP operating costs, such as fuel, labour, materials, insurance and decommissioning costs;

— Other necessary costs based on estimates of future developments in the electricity market, including electricity price predictions;

— The cost of carbon dioxide credits and different trading methods;

— The discount rate.

Various LTO duration scenarios were compared with other possible sources of electricity (e.g. new NPPs, fossil power plants).

The NPVs for +10, +20, +30 years of LTO and the technical feasibility of each duration were assessed, but a risk assessment was also conducted by estimating the accuracy of the input data (electricity price, fuel price, etc.) and the probability that the calculated NPVs were correct. A plan was also developed to reduce, eliminate or manage these types of technical risks by excluding or restricting selected forms of NPP operations.

Examples of non-technical types of risk include:

— Market risks (prices of commodities, services, exchange, interest rates, etc.);

— Credit risks (outstanding items, defaults);

— Operational risks (production, distribution, IT support, internal and external hazards, etc.);

— Entrepreneurial risks (company policy, government, regulators, etc.).

Sensitivity studies on these types of risks were conducted to obtain the most probable economic results.

Specific risks were estimated through an expert opinion survey. Special questionnaires were developed and distributed to about 50 experts from the industry, governments, universities and R&D organizations.

Figure 16 shows the development process used to decide the most appropriate risk mitigation measures.

II.3. SOFTWARE SUPPORT

To support the technical portion of the technical evaluation study, a database application was developed with the following three main tracks:

— Evaluation of all cost drivers;

— Planning of the implementation of the proposed improvement measures;

— Data exports/extractions for the economic assessment and for presentations.

Figures 17–21 show some of the dialogue windows of this engineering tool:

— Main data entry window;

— SSC selection and grouping window;

— Evaluation dialogue window;

— Proposed improvement measures dialogue window;

— Cost data form.

II.4. RESULTS

The technical evaluation determined the costs of the necessary improvement measures to prepare for LTO over and above the normal plant operating costs. These measures were exported to the overall NPP LTO investment plan (from the database to Excel sheets). The Excel results are also shown in Figs 22–25.

The results showed the profitability of the LTO of Dukovany NPP. The most profitable option was the longer 30 year life extension, for a total of 60 operational years. The study also showed that this lifetime extension was technically feasible. None of the risks were estimated to be serious enough to cancel the project. Most of the risks were manageable; six risks were considered medium level. Only two risks were deemed capable of serious consequences:

FIG. 17. Engineering tool for the technical part of the techno-economic assessment — main data entry window.

. Operator error (uninten�onal) 1.1 Financial

1.2 Commodi�es prices 1.3 Commodi�es volume 1.4 Market solidity

2.1 Debtor default 2.2 Supplier default 2.3 Se�lements

3.1 Opera�onal 3.2 Internal changes 3.3 Robustness 3.4 Safety

4.1 Strategic 4.2 Poli�cal 4.3 Regulatory 4.4 Reputa�on

3.1 Opera�onal

3.1.1

3.1.2. Malfunc�on of instrumenta�on and control systems

3.1.3. Opera�on and infrastructure

3.1.4. Se�ng of processes and competencies

3.1.5. Consequence of external events ČEZ group risk map

1. Market risks 2. Credit risks 3. Opera�onal risks 4. Entrepreneurial risks

FIG. 16. Map of the main risk areas.

— An unexpected reduction of the life expectancy of the hard to replace components that were not replaced, but whose ageing was mitigated;

— Targeted sabotage or terror attacks.

It was estimated that these two risk factors could move the value of the NPV outside its stochastic simulated limits, even with the inclusion of the funds necessary for the mitigation of these risks. However, if, instead of focusing on the consequences, these risks were seen from the point of view of their probability of occurrence, they became acceptable and this is what tilted the scale in favour of LTO.

Six risks were characterized as medium. Special attention was paid to those with the highest occurrence, such as the loss of experienced technical personnel in the R&D and technical service organization areas during LTO. All human resource experts agreed that this would be a serious problem that should be resolved by inter-institutional dialogue and inter-industry exchanges, and not only through recruitment. This is especially applicable to countries with small nuclear power programmes lacking a large pool of experts.

FIG. 17. Engineering tool for the technical part of the techno-economic assessment — main data entry window.

. Operator error (uninten�onal) 1.1 Financial

1.2 Commodi�es prices 1.3 Commodi�es volume 1.4 Market solidity

2.1 Debtor default 2.2 Supplier default 2.3 Se�lements

3.1 Opera�onal 3.2 Internal changes 3.3 Robustness 3.4 Safety

4.1 Strategic 4.2 Poli�cal 4.3 Regulatory 4.4 Reputa�on

3.1 Opera�onal

3.1.1

3.1.2. Malfunc�on of instrumenta�on and control systems

3.1.3. Opera�on and infrastructure

3.1.4. Se�ng of processes and competencies

3.1.5. Consequence of external events ČEZ group risk map

1. Market risks 2. Credit risks 3. Opera�onal risks 4. Entrepreneurial risks

FIG. 16. Map of the main risk areas.

FIG. 21. Engineering tool for technical assessment — cost data form.

FIG. 20. Engineering tool for the technical assessment — form for proposed measures.

FIG. 18. Engineering tool for the technical part of the assessment — SSC selection and grouping window.

FIG. 19. Engineering tool for technical assessment — main evaluation window.

FIG. 20. Engineering tool for the technical assessment — form for proposed measures.

FIG. 18. Engineering tool for the technical part of the assessment — SSC selection and grouping window.

FIG. 24. Economic part of the techno-economic study — NPP NPV at the design life and for all three options (+10, +20, +30 years).

66%

56% 52%

46% 42%

32%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Experienced

technical staﬀ Delay of main components of supplier or price

increase

Wrong

communica�on Accident in

other NPPs Knowledge

management Environment protec�on

Weigh�ng factor (%)

FIG. 25. Results of the risk analysis. FIG. 22. Rate of individual corrective actions in total investment costs.

FIG. 23. Technical part of the techno-economic study — investment costs in the timeline for all three LTO options (+10, +20, +30 years).