5.5.3.1. Basic information
Size and type
The apple orchard studied is located at Waipawa, Central Hawke’s Bay. The orchard is 105 ha in area. Mr Apple, which is the biggest apple producing company, has 12 orchards over the country and each one is about same size to this orchard around 100ha. The case study orchard is a Mr Apple orchard located on State Highway 50.
Figure 51 Satellite image of the study area in Hawke’s Bay (Google, 2012)
Crop production
The orchard was planted in 1987 and the majority of apple trees are around 27 years old. There are 13 apple varieties planted in the orchard, including Braeburn, Royal Gala, Fuji, Granny Smith, Red Delicious, Pacific Queen, Pacific Rose, Pink Lady and Jazz. The major variety is Braeburn with 28 ha of the planted area. The second one is Pacific Queen at 26 ha. Pacific Rose and Royal Gala have occupied 10 ha and 17 ha in area. Recently the orchard has changed the apple variety mix from Fuji to Pacific series using grafting. Fuji developed in Japan is one of the favourite varieties in the Asian Market. However, China has now planted large areas of Fuji. As a result, the Asian market for Fuji is expected to become very difficult due to Chinese supply. The orchard has been replacing Fuji with Pacific series, as a result such as Pacific Queen and Pacific Rose
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which are expected to become popular in the Asian market. With regard to production per area, Braeburn in the case study orchard produced 10 tonnes per ha.
Figure 52 Images of the case 7 orchard
Water availability
Annual rainfall at the case study orchard was around 900 mm per year (NIWA, 2012b). The Central Hawke’s Bay region is one of the dry regions in New Zealand and therefore, particularly in hot and dry summer seasons, irrigation is essential to secure sufficient water supply for trees. The case study orchard utilized aquifer water to irrigate. There were a couple of bores to draw out water from the aquifer.
Orchard management
There was an orchard manager and around ten permanent staff for the case study orchard. They were managing the apple orchard including marketing. In harvesting seasons, the orchard employs a large number of temporary seasonal workers to pick the fruits.
5.5.3.2. Impact of Climate change
Waipawa (Central Hawke’s Bay) where the case study orchard is located has a different climate from Hastings and Napier. In winter, Waipawa is usually colder than Hastings and Napier but in summer it is warmer. Also, Waipawa has a huge daily temperature range. Thus, those conditions allow apple orchards in the Waipawa area to produce good quality apple fruit. On the other hand, frost can be a serious challenge of the orchards in the Waipawa area, especially during blossoming and fruit-set periods.
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The manager believed that climate change is real and going on. In particular, he experienced abnormal wet and cool summers in the last two years and he thought climate change is happening. Also, fungus and disease problems have become a serious challenge to orchard management. With regard to the impacts of climate change, droughts could be a challenge to the Hawke’s Bay region. However, droughts were not a big issue of this orchard. This is because the orchard had a sufficient water supply via aquifer water. However, the present drought in Feb/Mar 2013 is quite serious and many regions in North Island including Hawke’s Bay are suffering from severe drought (TVNZ, 2013). He stated:
“There were two wetter years in the last two years. I have been working for 20 years but never experienced any year like the last two years. The east of the North Island normally has hot dry summers. However, in the last 2 years there were completely wet and cold summers. In this year, the climate goes back to normal. Something is happening. It’s difficult to quantify but it is certainly different from what worked 20 years ago. These springs were probably cooler, more clouds and wetter than normal conditions. As a result, fungus and disease control is becoming issued. This is because under the cooler and wetter conditions, it is more difficult to control black spot fungus and other tree diseases which can have serious influence on apple production and wetter condition deteriorates disease problems. 2011 and 2010 were crazy years. This year is so far completely normal. “Drought has biggest possibility here because we are on the east coast and usually dry and extreme conditions can be very dry. But for us, we have irrigation, reliable irrigation. So, drought is not so much problem.
Usually, the climate of Hawke’s Bay in summer seasons is hot and dry. However, in the last two years, the case study orchard experienced a wetter and cooler climate. Thus, the manager thought that last two years were not normal and climate change was happening. Fungus and disease control was a big challenge to apple production due to wetter and cooler conditions. Also, frost was a problem for apple production of the case study orchard. As mentioned, frost has been an issue in the Waipawa area partly because of its huge daily or diurnal temperature range. With regard to frost, the manager stated:
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“Our biggest problem is really the impacts of spring conditions and frost. We have possibility of if it’s dry you have more chance of frost. And conditions in spring, some flowering and Christmas time is time when cell division is happening in the fruit. And we need this time to be warm and dry. They have no problem with fungal diseases. And warmer conditions for cell division allow fruits to get maximum cell division and make big apple.”
“Frost protection is the main issue in the orchard. If trees get frost damage in flowering seasons, we can get nothing. This method is useful to prevent frost damage. We do a lot of efforts for frost protection.”
The manager showed increasing concerns about frost. According to NIWA’s scenarios, late spring frost will have serious influence on NZ’s horticultural production more unexpectedly due to climate change and therefore, climate change can make the frost problem worse.
5.5.3.3. Adaptation responses
The case study orchard used frost protection fans to prevent frost damage. The manager stated:
“We have tried helicopters and watering systems and other possibilities but this is very effective and most cost effective. 30- 40 metres temperature there will be maybe 4-5 degree but temperature of ground will be -1 or -2 degree. This machine is pulling down the air into the orchard and goes rotation in 3 min around the tower.”
148 5.5.3.4. Government policy
The case 7 orchard manager knew climate change well. He thought that climate change was likely to cause recent cooler and wetter summers and was worried about impact on crop management such as an increase of fungal diseases because of cooler and wetter conditions. However, he had little knowledge about government policies on climate change and didn’t get involved in them.
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5.6. Summary
Case studies were implemented at seven farms or orchards in four different regions: Gisborne, Nelson, Manawatu, and Hawke’s Bay. Information on regional climate change and local council’s activities on climate change was gathered from various sources including a literature review. Field interviews and observations were undertaken to identify the impacts of climate change and the effectiveness of government policies or activities on climate change. From observation at NIWA’s weather stations, four regions studied were getting warmer. In the regions, average temperatures have increased by about 0.5Û& to 1Û& even though there were some variations in regions. A trend in annual rainfall varied with regions. In the eastern regions, such as Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay, annual rainfall has decreased slightly. On the contrary, in Nelson and Manawatu, rainfall showed an upward trend. According to NIWA’s projections, the average air temperature will increase by about 2Û&by 2090 in all regions. However, the trend in rainfall will be different between regions. In the eastern regions, rainfall is expected to decrease while in the western regions rainfall will increase due to climate change.
Field interviews with farmers revealed that many farmers were unsure about climate change. Some farmers agreed that there were some changes in weather pattern but they were not sure that those changes came from climate change. Many of them thought that some fluctuations in climate have existed at all times and there was no significant change in climate until now except for the case 7 farmer who was concerned about recent cooler and wetter summers due to climate change. No particular adaptation response relating to climate change was undertaken at any of the case study farms. This is because there was no apparent impact of climate change on crop production at the case study farms. The main concerns on climate change appear to be water availability, flood protection, and pest and disease control.
Most of farmers interviewed had little knowledge about government policies and activities on climate change. They didn’t get involved in any government support, grants, or technology transferring programmes to cope with climate change but they knew about the ETS and generally expressed negative opinions on the ETS.
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CHAPTER SIX: DISCUSSION
6.1. Introduction
This chapter seeks to find an answer to the research questions given in the first chapter through a comparison between the findings from the case studies and information obtained from the literature review. The main purpose of this research is to define the effectiveness of government policies and measures on climate change at farm production level. This study investigated the effectiveness of government of policies and measures from farmer’s perspective. The four questions which were cast to achieve the purpose of the research were as follows:
1. What changes in climate are occurring and how is climate change affecting horticultural production?
2. What concerns about climate change do farmers and industries have?
3. How are farmers responding to climate change? What adaptation response are farmers doing to meet climate change?
4. How have NZ government policies on climate change been being implemented effectively at farm production level?
In the previous chapter, data attained from the case studies were illustrated and those data included the impacts of climate change, farmer’s concerns and adaptation response, and farmer’s perception of government policies and measures on climate change. In the literature review, general pictures on climate change and its impacts were attained. However, the general view can be quite different from farmer’s perspective and farmers can have a different perception and experience of climate change. This chapter will interpret data from farmer’s perspective and compare information from literature review with the findings from the case studies and interviews in order to show a comprehensive picture on the relationship between climate change, horticultural production and government policies in order to answer the research questions.
This chapter will identify the impacts of climate change, adaptation response, and the effectiveness of government policy. Then, the main findings and conclusion will follow. Finally, any recommendation relative to policy and future research undertaking will be suggested.
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6.2. Impacts of climate change
What changes to climate are occurring in the case study sites? How is climate change affecting horticultural production?
There is high confidence that New Zealand’s climate is changing. NZ’s Climate is becoming warmer and weather patterns, such as rainfall and winds have been changing. From NIWA’s observation, NZ’s annual average air temperatures have increased by 0.9ºC in the last 100 years. Sea surface temperatures also show a similar upward trend to average air temperatures (Mullan et al., 2010; Renwick et al., 2010; NIWA, 2012b). There is a tendency that the northerly winds have dwindled since the 1960s. In contrast, the westerly and southwesterly wind have increased (Mullan et al., 2010). As wind patterns have been changing, NZ’s rainfall has been changing. For example, rainfall in the western regions has increased by 5% to 15% in the last 50 years because of the strengthened westerly winds. On the other hand, rainfall has decreased by 5% to 20% at the same period in the eastern regions, such as Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, and Canterbury (Warrick et al., 2001; Renwick et al., 2010) .
It is likely that changes in NZ’s climate are highly related with global climate change. This is because NZ’s climate is dominated by the influence of global climate systmes, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). For example, during El Niño events, there is a tendency that westerly winds are increased. Recently, El Niño events have occurred more frequently due to global warming and as a result, the more westerly winds have affected New Zealand (NIWA, 2012a).
There is a similar upward trend in annual average air temperatures among case study sites. In the Gisborne District, annual average temperatures have increase by around 0.5 ºC in the last 50 years and this upward trend is partly coincident with NIWA’s projection. In Nelson and Tasman region, annual mean air temperatures has increased by 0.58 °C to 0.88 °C over the last 100 years (Wratt et al., 2008). In Manawatu and Hawke’s Bay regions, annual average temperatures have increased by around 0.5 °C to 1 °C gradually even though there were year to year variations (NIWA, 2012b).
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On the other hand, rainfall trends varied with case study areas even though trends in rainfall among regions were partly similar to NZ’s general rainfall trend projected by NIWA. From observation at Manutuke and Gisborne airport weather station in Gisborne, there was a negative trend in rainfall over the last 50 years (NIWA, 2012b).
In Hawke’s Bay, a similar downward trend in rainfall was observed. These downward trends in rainfall at the case study sites located in the east of the North Island were partly coincident with NIWA’s scenarios and projections. There was an upward trend in rainfall in the Nelson region. NIWA projected that rainfall in Nelson will increase by 2 % between 1990 and 2040 due to climate change (Ministry for the Environment, 2008e). Thus, the real trend in rainfall show a similar tendency to NIWA’s projection and therefore, it can be assumed that global climate change will affect NZ’s rainfall.
However, in Manawatu, trends in rainfall were varied with geographical location. For example, an upward trend in rainfall between 1992 and 2011 was observed at the Palmerston North Aws weather station (NIWA, 2012b). However, at the same period there was a downward trend in rainfall at the Levin Aws weather station. According to NIWA’s projection, rainfall in Manawatu is expected to increase from 1990 to 2090. However, observation data show region to region variations in rainfall (Ministry for the Environment, 2008e).
Farmers’ experience and perception are somewhat different from the findings in the literature review. The findings showed that case study areas became warmer and the eastern regions of the North Island are getting drier while the western regions are getting wetter. However, field interviews revealed that most of farmers who were interviewed thought that climate change was not happening at all or it is too early to comment.
All farmers interviewed had more than 15 years of farming experience. They also had basic knowledge about climate change. However, most of them thought that there was no significant change in climate over the last 20 years. The farmer, who has 40 years of farming experience in the Manawatu region, mentioned that “there was no climate extreme during the last 40 years and I don’t believe climate change”. The other two farmers in Manawatu indicated that they experienced neither climate change nor climate
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extremes. The farmers in Gisborne and Nelson agreed that there was no significant change in climate in their respective regions.
Most farmers mentioned that there was no change in their farming practises. For example, they planted maize at the same time every year. One farmer admitted that there was a minor rise in the outbreak of pest and disease. However, he was not sure that that change came from climate change or border control. On the other hand, the manager of the apple orchard in Hawke’s Bay believed climate change. He indicated that the last 2 years’ climate was not normal. He thought that something was happening if not quantified.
Field interviews and observation indicated that there was no significant impact of climate change on horticultural production in the case study sites yet.
For instance, in Gisborne warmer temperatures had no significant harmful influence on citrus production. In fact, citrus is a subtropical crop and therefore, an increase of mean temperatures could be beneficial for citrus production in Gisborne. Also, the case 1 farmer noted that occurrence of frost events was likely to decrease over the last 12-15 years. From observation at the Gisborne, Manutuke weather station, there was no particular trend in frost occurrences from 1946 to 1992 (NIWA, 2012b). However, there was a tendency that a change in temperature is contrary to occurrence of frost events. For example, when the annual mean temperature is high, frosts occurred less frequently. Thus, as climate is getting warmer, frost events are expected to decrease. As a result, less frost occurrence will be useful for citrus production.
In Nelson, it is likely that there was also no significant impact of climate change on grape production of the case 2 vineyard. Change in climate, including increased temperature and reduced rainfall, will probably affect vineyard management activities, such as irrigation and pest, disease and weed control. However, the case 2 farmer in Nelson commented that there was no significant change in vineyard management activities yet. He had owned vineyards since in 1994 and so he had about 18 years of farming experience. However, he has felt no significant change in weather pattern. He thought that there might be slight warming but he was not sure about that because there was no empirical evidence available to him to support that.
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Field interviews and observation revealed that there was also no significant impact of climate change on vegetable crop production in Manawatu. The case 5 farmer indicated that over the last 20 years, there was no change in farm management activities, such as planting schedule, irrigation, and pest, disease and weed control. For example, he has planted maize on 15 to 16 October every year and he was still planting at the same time. Also, he didn’t observe any significant change in occurrence of pest, disease and weed.