Ensayos previos al desarrollo del sistema

and therefore an exact quantification is not possible in practice. However, this presence is not entirely unknown to the archives because part of it is intercepted by the police, which thus acquire also useful data for a numerical estimate.

Between 2002 and 2010 the immigration pressure on Italy from countries with strong migratory pressure has been decreasing, as is revealed by these factors: - decrease in number of persons intercepted at the border (from 43,795 in 2002 to

4,201 in 2010);

- decrease in number of returnees (from 44,706 in 2002 to 16,086 in 2010); - decrease in number of people that failed to comply with a removal order (from

61,282 in 2002 to 30,430 in 2010).

In addition, it should be noted not only that the number of irregularities decreased following the regularization of 2002 (almost 703,000 applications have been accepted) but there was also the effect of emptying the basin of irregular immigrants with the regularization of 2009, which covered the home care sector (296,000 applications).

Moreover, there must be taken into consideration the annual entries for business for a total of 520,000 in 2006, 170,000 in 2007, 150,000 in 2008, and no entry in 2009 (absence partly resolved by the above-mentioned regularization, launched in the home care sector with the presentation of nearly 300,000 applications).

In 2010 there was no quota in force, because the entries of 98,080 decided in December of that year were implemented in the following year.

Finally, there also must be taken into account the harsh effects of economic

ITALY. Refusals, removal and repatriations, overall values (2001-2010)

Measure 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Refusals at the borders 41,058 43,795 27,397 24,528 23,878 20,547 11,099 6,358 4,298 4,201 Removals/Repatriations 34,390 44,706 37,756 35,437 30,428 24,902 15,680 17,880 14,063 16,086 Tot. persons removed 75,448 88,501 65,153 59,965 54,306 45,449 26,779 24,238 18,361 20,287 Non compliant 58,207 61,282 40,586 45,697 65,617 78,934 47,983 46,391 34,462 30,430 Tot. Involved 133,655 149,783 105,739 105,662 119,923 124,383 74,762 70,629 52,823 50,717 % removed on involved 56.4 59.1 61.6 56.8 45.3 36.5 35.8 34.3 34.7 40.0

crisis. In 2010 alone there have expired without being renewed 600,000 work permits and permits issued for family reasons, in force during the previous year. This underlines both the reduced ability of the system to maintain the old employment and, at the same time, the need to offer further work, both in the formal sector (covered by contributions) and in the informal one.

Therefore, if during the first years of the 2000s the estimate of nearly 1 million irregular migrants (according to the social world and not far from the figures of the scholars in the field) could have been accepted as close to reality and confirmed retroactively by the regularization of 2002, now the number of immigrants has halved.

Only a field survey organically structured in the area would allow going beyond this general overview of the phenomenon, and it should support a reliable estimate of the irregular presence.

The ISMU Foundation - Initiatives and Studies on Multiethnicity (Milan) takes charge of this estimate for the whole national territory every year. It is based on a representative sample specially created, by disaggregating the overall presence of three components: foreigners regularly present (but not yet registered as residents), foreigners registered as residents and foreigners irregularly present. The ISMU estimated a number of 473,000 irregular immigrants at the beginning of 1990 (year of regularization when 240,000 applications were submitted), 750,000 in 2002 (year of regularization when 703,000 applications were submitted), 651,000 in 2007 (year when 520,000 were admitted on the new quotas for work permits), whereas in 2009 it was estimated a decrease in the number of irregular immigrants to 560,000 and

to 544,000 in 2010, and less than half a million in the following year203_.

The seriousness of the Institute of Milan and the commitment it has deployed in the sample for estimation were held in high regard. Moreover, there are no such extensive surveys conducted on the irregular presence throughout the national context, in contrast to what can be done for single local areas. On the other hand, there are analytical studies on non-resident migrants regularly staying; in particular, those reported in recent editions of Immigration Statistical Dossier Caritas/Migrantes (Rome) take into account all the available statistical archives and evaluate the magnitude of the numbers to an extent not exactly coincident with that of ISMU.

The ISMU Foundation has also the advantage of being able to estimate the

extent of irregular presence for the 60 major communities: up to 1st_{January 2010}

there were estimated between 51,000 and 59,000 irregular migrants coming from Morocco and Albania; between 21,000 and 30,000 from Ukraine and China; between 15,000 and 20,000 from Senegal, Moldova, Tunisia.

The reported overview may be concluded with the observation that irregular migration, given the concomitant effect of recent regulatory changes and the impact of the crisis, is likely to be reduced, both quantitatively and also on its

impact on regular presence, and it is estimated up to 1st_{January around 10% of the} nearly 5 million foreigners regularly present in Italy. It remains, however, to investigate the transition from regularity to irregularity, and, in particular, to what extent holders of more than 600,000 work permits and those issued on family

reasons (valid until 31st _{December 2009 but not renewed after one year) have}

remained in Italy without authorization rather than return home. The issue, already

discussed in the Immigration Statistical Dossier Caritas/Migrantes204_{, is currently}

examined by the CNEL - National Council of Economy and Labour that, in its Report

on indices of integration of immigrants (Rapporto sugli indici di integrazione degli immigrati205_{), intends to deepen the territorial scope.}

5.2. National statistics related to irregular migration