After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are: (488) D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t) (489) C(t)=0.6891DI(t)-28436542388 (490) G(t)=0.6715TI(t)-659649092 (491) TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t) (492) OR(t)=0.0614Y(t)-10830723595 (493) I(t)=0.3287Y(t)+359540295r(t)-49704079039 (494) DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t) (495) TF(t)=0.1165Y(t)+33855269701 (496) TR(t)=0.3203Y(t)-22768621161 (497) IM(t)=0.4892Y(t)-74979638069 (498) EX(t)=0.2249Y(t)+27213766131 (499) D(t)=Y(t) (500) MD(t)=0.5501Y(t)+2192134907r(t)-45177913249 (501) MS(t)=5743564195t-11374975710304
(502) MD(t)=MS(t)
Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year): (503) Y(t)=4264272840.97t-8231353327434.13 (504) r(t)=1.5501t-3102.9729 (505) TI(t)=1627499078.33t-3175171296982.38 (506) G(t)=1092882203.63t-2132819507210.36 (507) DI(t)=3395324275.44t-6497392424379.85 (508) C(t)=2339612365.67t-4505587597045.10 (509) OR(t)=261661863.45t-515918303759.30 (510) TR(t)=1365837214.88t-2659252993223.08 (511) TF(t)=496888649.35t-925292090168.80 (512) I(t)=1958987933.82t-3870999697604.01 (513) IM(t)=2086219760.76t-4102023077806.70 (514) EX(t)=959010098.61t-1823969603381.37 (515) MD(t)=MS(t)=5743564195.44t-11374975710304.40
From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:
The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2013 (120.25%) and the minimum in 2000 (88.10%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 58.03-61.06%.
The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2014 (124.91%) and the minimum in 2000
(84.18%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.43-20.64%.
The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2015 (156.96%) and the minimum in 2002 (75.23%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 2.73-4.25%.
The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2008 (124.32%) and the minimum in 2001 (80.01%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 18.23-21.44%.
The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2015 (136.48%) and the minimum in 2016 (-15.33%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 22.19-25.46%.
The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2015 (122.79%) and the minimum in 2000 (86.05%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 24.40-27.60%.
The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2016 (149.31%) and the minimum in 2013 (86.31%).
The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2008 (116.23%) and the minimum in 2000 (93.21%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 28.28-32.47%.
The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2015 (129.68%) and the minimum in 2001 (79.04%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 25.32-31.53%.
The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2001 (141.99%) and the minimum in 2015 (-110.55%).
The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011,
2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2015 (115.83%) and the minimum in 2000 (89.83%).
The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2002 (1045.37%) and the minimum in 2001 (-458.07%).
Figure 3.17.2
Figure 3.17.4
Figure 3.17.6
Figure 3.17.8
Figure 3.17.10
Figure 3.17.12
Figure 3.17.13 3.18. Zimbabwe
After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are: (516) D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)
(517) C(t)=0.6584DI(t)+3384686570 (518) G(t)=0.9997TI(t)-185942357 (519) TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)
(520) OR(t)=0.0785Y(t)-598358483 (521) I(t)=-598358483.2386Y(t)+0r(t) (522) DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t) (523) TF(t)=-1.2170Y(t)+10521759623 (524) TR(t)=0.4029Y(t)-2373481946 (525) IM(t)=-52.1583Y(t)+857619507026 (526) EX(t)=-51.1207Y(t)+847497934184 (527) D(t)=Y(t) (528) MD(t)=-2373481945.7945Y(t)+0r(t) (529) MS(t)=-225369688t+454818190189 (530) MD(t)=MS(t)
Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year): (531) Y(t)=-0.32t+640.94 (532) r(t)=-2460206251.8086t+4904184603725.0100 (533) TI(t)=-0.16t-2971840120.47 (534) G(t)=-0.16t-3156927164.53 (535) DI(t)=0.20t+12895241171.70 (536) C(t)=0.13t+11875457218.16 (537) OR(t)=-0.03t-598358432.93 (538) TR(t)=-0.13t-2373481687.53 (539) TF(t)=0.39t+10521758843.22 (540) I(t)=0.04t+1403042763.91 (541) IM(t)=16.83t+857619473595.31 (542) EX(t)=16.50t+847497901418.72 (543) MD(t)=MS(t)=-225369687.94t+454818190189.24
From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:
The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2012, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis
(2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2013, 2014, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2012 (108.37%) and the minimum in 2008 (72.55%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.
The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2009 (-29.78%) and the minimum in 2012 (-105.65%).
The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2009 (-9.69%) and the minimum in 2012 (-69.08%).
The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).
The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2012 (7.57%) and the minimum in 2001 (-148.61%).
The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2009 (- 39.13%) and the minimum in 2012 (-121.35%).
The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).
The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2004 (490.15%) and the minimum in 2002 (-63.97%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.
The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2004 (483.06%) and the minimum in 2002 (-64.88%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.
The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2012 (38.10%) and the minimum in 2001 (-154.48%). The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).
The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between
real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).
Figure 3.18.1
Figure 3.18.3
Figure 3.18.5
Figure 3.18.7
Figure 3.18.9