Escenarios

5.1 Basics

The methodology and the assumptions for the traffic demand calculations are described in Chapter 3.3.2 – 3.3.5 of the report to Phase 1 of this study.

Also the results for the basic forecast 2020 can be taken from Chapter 3 of that report.

5.2 Oslo – Trondheim

5.2.1 Traffic Demand in the Reference Case 2020

Although travel times between Oslo and Trondheim might be reduced by about 20 min- utes due to the upgraded and partially new built line between Eidsvoll and Sørli, market share of the rail will not change significantly. Air is dominating this market. In 2005, about 4.750 passengers per day are travelling point-to-point between Oslo and Trondheim by all means of transport. About 1000 passenger per day on average also use air services be- tween Gardermoen airport and Trondheim airport but do not have both, origin and desti- nation, in Oslo and Trondheim and use connecting domestic flights in Oslo or Trondheim. These markets are not reachable for railway and thus are not considered in this study. Another 750 passengers per day are travelling between Trondheim and Gardermoen air- port changing there to an international flight. This is also a quite interesting market for High-Speed-Services and in future, if capacities of airports run short, for airlines and air- port companies as well to save capacities for international flights by replacing domestic flights through rail services.

Traffic demand between Oslo and Trondheim will grow by about 34% due to demographic changes and economic growth up to 2020. Growth rate on international air traffic is higher and thus, feeder traffic to Gardermoen airport will grow above-average likewise.

As High-Speed-Trains between Oslo and Trondheim shall also stop at Stange and Tynset Vest, additional markets are opened up for High-Speed-Traffic, i.e.

- Oslo – Northern Hedmark (Alvdal/Tynset) / South East of Sør-Trøndelag (Røros) - Southern Hedmark (Hamar, Ringsaker, Stange, Elverum) - Trondheim

- Lillehammer (Northern Oppland) – Trondheim

- Northern Hedmark (Alvdal/Tynset) / South East of Sør-Trøndelag (Røros) - Trond- heim

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Traffic demand between the Southern and Northern parts of Hedmark (including Røros) can be switched to High-Speed-Services, too.

The markets between Oslo and Gardermoen airport on the one side and the southern parts of Hedmark (Hamar, Ringsaker, Stange, Elverum) and Lillehammer on the other side will still be served by IC-Trains between Oslo and Lillehammer (Elverum by connec- tions with local trains) and thus are not defined as a relevant market for High-Speed- Services.

Table 5-1 shows the market potentials on the relevant markets for High-Speed-Services between Oslo and Trondheim.

Table 5-1: Traffic Demand on Main Markets for High-Speed-Services between Oslo and Trondheim, in the Reference Case 2020

2005

abs. abs. Growth Growth _rate

Oslo - Trondheim 4 750 6 350 1 600 34% Oslo - Tynset/Røros 400 450 50 17% Gardermoen - Trondheim 750 1 150 400 50% Gardermoen - Tynset/Røros 50 100 50 38% Lillehammer/Ringsaker - Trondheim 450 500 50 6% Hamar/Elverum - Trondheim 600 650 50 11% Hamar/Elverum - Tynset/Røros 300 300 0 5% Tynset/Røros - Trondheim 850 950 100 9%

Total Number of Passengers

on Relevant Markets 8 150 10 450 2 300 28%

Development of Overall Traffic Demand (passengers per day, both directions)

in the Main Markets

- Reference Case without High-Speed Services -

2020 Reference Case Market segment (OD)

Overall Traffic Demand

5.2.2 Traffic Demand in the Variant with High-Speed-Railway Service

As already mentioned in Chapter 3.3.7 of the Report Phase 1, traffic demand will grow significantly taking into account two effects:

- The growth of railway’s market share - The growth of overall traffic demand

Table 5-2 shows the development on the relevant markets in the Oslo – Trondheim corri- dor differentiated by the two sorts of effects.

Table 5-2: Development of Traffic Demand on Main Markets Oslo – Trondheim in the Case with High-Speed- Services

2020 w/o HSS

abs. abs. Growth Growth _rate Market Share abs.

Oslo - Trondheim 6 350 7 400 1 050 16% 51% 3 750 Oslo - Tynset/Röros 450 500 50 11% 36% 200 Gardermoen - Trondheim 1 150 1 300 150 12% 47% 600 Gardermoen - Tynset/Röros 100 110 10 8% 53% 50 Lillehammer/Ringsaker - Trondheim 500 510 10 2% 28% 150 Hamar/Elverum - Trondheim 650 750 100 12% 39% 300 Hamar/Elverum - Tynset/Röros 300 300 0 1% 20% 50 Tynset/Röros - Trondheim 950 1 000 50 4% 25% 250

Total Number of Passengers

on Relevant Markets 10 450 11 870 1 420 14% 45% 5 350

2020 with HSS 2020 with HSS Market segment (OD)

Development of Overall Traffic Demand (passengers per day, both directions)

in the Main Markets

- with and without High-Speed Services -

Overall Traffic Demand Rail Traffic

Growth of overall traffic demand and railway’s market share will be the highest on the rela- tion between Oslo and Trondheim. 3’750 of 5’350 rail passengers per day or 70% of total amount of passengers are originating on this relation.

Growth rates of overall traffic and railway’s markets shares depend on the quality of rail services and on travel distance. They are the highest on relations with the highest share of High-Speed-Services of all railway services. On longer distances, the shares of access and egress times are less than on shorter distances. In the case of the necessity of a change, railway’s markets shares are decline strongly. This is the reason, why market shares are less on relations to the intermediate stations, where most of the traffic poten- tials can be reached only by changing on IC or local trains.

On average, traffic demand on the new High-Speed-Services is about 4.900 passengers per day with a maximum of about 5.100 passengers per day on the section between Stange and Tynset Vest (see Figure 5-1).

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Figure 5-1: Passenger Demand on High-Speed-Services between Oslo and Trondheim

Oslo Stange with connections to - Lillehammer - Ringsaker - Hamar - Løten - Elverum

Boarding and Deboarding Passengers at Intermediate Stops (on Average per Day) High-Speed-Line

with Average Number of Passengers per Day Gardermoen

Airport

Tynset Vest

with connections to - Alvdal (by bus) - Tynset - Tolga - Os-Hedmark - Røros Trondheim 3 ’9 50 4’6 00 5’1 00 5’0 50 250 300 500 650 5’050 500 Legend:

In addition to the demand effects of the High-Speed-Services, existing services from Oslo to Hamar, Lillehammer and Elverum will profit from the new infrastructure, too.

To Hamar and Lillehammer, travel times can be reduced by two minutes due to the new line bypassing Stange. But, number of services will be reduced slightly, as services from Reference Case between Oslo and Trondheim via Lillehammer will be cut at Lillehammer and access and egress times in Stange will be slightly increased, as the new station is located outside the centre of Stange. These effects will largely balance out each other.

Passenger on the way between Elverum and Oslo can change to/from Intercity-Trains Oslo – Lillehammer already in Stange instead of Hamar and will save about 10 minutes compared to the situation in the Reference Case. On the other hand side, travelling be- tween Elverum and Hamar will take about 9 minutes more than today. Again, both effects will largely balance out and are therefore not considered in the evaluation of the new High-Speed-Line.

In total, transport demand amounts to 5’350 passenger per day on average. The transport performance amounts to 2.28 Mio passenger-kilometres per day. Of that, about 0.86 Mio passenger-kilometres per day are transferred from air traffic, 0.30 Mio passenger- kilometres are transferred from car and bus and 0.60 Mio passenger-kilometres per day are induced within the corridor. Passenger demand in the reference case amounted to 0.52 Mio passenger-kilometres per day.

5.3 Oslo – Gøteborg

5.3.1 Traffic Demand in the Reference Case 2020

Beside international traffic between Oslo and Gøteborg, the High-Speed-Trains will serve the regional markets between Oslo, Moss, Sarpsborg and Halden. Between Oslo and Moss, High-Speed-Services will share the rail market with IC- and local trains.

Table 5-3: Traffic Demand on Main Markets for High-Speed-Services between Oslo and Gøteborg, in the Reference Case 2020

2005

abs. abs. Growth Growth _rate

Oslo - Gøteborg 4 650 5 500 850 18% Oslo - Halden 1 200 1 500 300 23% Oslo - Sarpsborg 2 450 3 050 600 24% Oslo - Moss * * * * Ski/Moss - Gøteborg 200 200 0 9% Ski/Moss - Halden 300 300 0 12% Ski/Moss - Sarpsborg 600 650 50 12% Sarpsborg - Gøteborg 900 1 050 150 16% Sarpborg - Halden 600 700 100 13% Halden - Gøteborg 150 200 50 17%

Total Number of Passengers

on Relevant Markets 11 050 13 150 2 100 19%

Development of Overall Traffic Demand (passengers per day, both directions)

in the Main Markets

- Reference Case without High-Speed Services -

2020 Reference Case Market segment (OD)

Overall Traffic Demand

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5.3.2 Traffic Demand in the Variant with High-Speed-Railway Service

Again, traffic demand will grow significantly taking into account two effects: - The growth of railway’s market share

- The growth of overall traffic demand

Table 5-4 shows the development of the relevant markets on the Oslo – Gøteborg line differentiated by the two sorts of effects.

Table 5-4: Development of Traffic Demand on Main Markets Oslo – Gøteborg in the Case with High-Speed- Services

2020 Ref. Case

abs. abs. Growth Growth _rate Market Share abs.

Oslo - Gøteborg 5 500 6 200 700 12% 41% 2 550 Oslo - Halden 1 500 1 650 150 9% 39% 650 Oslo - Sarpsborg 3 050 3 300 250 7% 32% 1 050 Oslo - Moss * * * * * 1 200 Ski/Moss - Gøteborg 200 200 0 4% 22% 50 Ski/Moss - Halden 300 350 50 8% 35% 100 Ski/Moss - Sarpsborg 650 700 50 4% 17% 100 Sarpsborg - Gøteborg 1 050 1 100 50 5% 23% 250 Sarpborg - Halden 700 700 0 2% 17% 100 Halden - Gøteborg 200 200 0 5% 22% 50

Total Number of Passengers

on Relevant Markets 13 150 14 400 1 250 10% 34% 6 100

Development of Overall Traffic Demand (passengers per day, both directions)

in the Main Markets

- with and without High-Speed Services -

Overall Traffic Demand High-Speed-Rail Traffic 2020 Reference Case 2020 with HSS Market segment (OD)

* No comparable figure available; High-Speed-Trains will share the rail market with IC- and local trains

Growth of overall traffic demand and railway’s market share will be the highest on the rela- tion between Oslo and Gøteborg. 2’550 of 6’100 rail passengers per day or 42% of total amount of High-Speed-Rail passengers are originating on this relation. Beside this, there are three strong markets which are also served by High-Speed-Trains, i.e. Oslo – Moss, Oslo – Sarpsborg and Oslo – Halden. Between Oslo and Moss, High-Speed-Services share the rail market with IC-Services Oslo – Moss – Fredrikstad and local trains. In the table above, only the share of passenger demand in High-Speed-Services is considered.

Growth rates of overall traffic and railway’s markets shares in the Oslo – Gøteborg corri- dor mostly depend on travel distance. On longer distances, the shares of access and egress times are less than on shorter distances and thus, relative growth in travel speed and traffic demand is higher.

On average, traffic demand on the new High-Speed-Services is about 3.650 passengers per day with a maximum of about 5.450 passengers per day on the section between Oslo and Moss (see Figure 5-2). Between Halden and Gøteborg, where number of services will be reduced to a two-hourly cadence with additional trains at peak times, passenger de- mand averages to about 2.900 passengers per day.

Figure 5-2: Passenger Demand on High-Speed-Services between Oslo and Gøteborg

Trollhätten

Göteborg

Sarpsborg

with interconnection to/from - Frederikstad (bus)

Boarding and Deboarding Passengers at Intermediate Stops (on Average per Day) High-Speed-Line with Average Number of Passengers per Day in High-Speed-Services Halden

Moss

with interconnection from/to - Ski Oslo 2’9 00 3’7 00 4’5 00 5’4 50 250 1’150 850 4’200 500 Legend: 350 50 1’200

Passenger demand between Oslo and Fredrikstad will not change significantly. People living in the eastern parts of Fredrikstad can use High-Speed-Services from the new Sarpsborg station in the West of Sarpsborg, which can easily be reached by car or bus services, whereas people, who are reliant to existing services from Fredrikstad, have to accept a slightly reduced number of services to Oslo, esp. at peak times.

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In total, transport demand in High-Speed-Services between Oslo and Gøteborg amounts to 6’100 passenger per day on average. The transport performance is of about 1.06 Mio passenger-kilometres per day. Of that, 0.30 Mio passenger-kilometres per day are trans- ferred from car and bus and, for a relative small share, from air traffic. 0.26 Mio passen- ger-kilometres per day are induced within the corridor. Passenger demand in the refer- ence case amounted to 0.50 Mio passenger-kilometres per day.