Line Id D[1] D[2] D[3] D[4] D[5] D[6] D[7] D[8] D[9] 1 200 (B) - + 200 + 200 - - - - - 2 400 (C) - - + 400 + 400 - - - - 3 - 200 (A) 200 (A) - - - - 4 200 (B) - + 200 - - - - 5 - 200 (A) 800 (C) - - - - 6 400 (C) - - + 400 + 400 - - - - 8 - - 200 (B) 200 (A) 200 (A) - + 200 - - 9 - 200 (A) 200 (A) - - - - 10 - - 800 (C) - - - - 14 - - - 200 (A) - - - - - 16 - - - 200 (A) - - 25 - - - 200 (A) - - 26 - - - 200 (A) - -
Table E-4a: Optimal expansion strategy for the risk-constrained flexible decision framework
Table E-4b: Investment, constraint and system costs (£m) under each scenario. Scenario
Investment Cost (IC)
Total IC Constraints Cost (CC) Total CC Total System Cost
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 1 Stage
2 Stage 3 Stage 4 1 341.1 91.5 36.0 0.0 468.6 0.0 8.7 6.1 3.4 18.2 486.8 2 341.1 91.5 36.0 0.0 468.6 0.0 8.7 6.1 1.3 16.0 484.6 3 341.1 91.5 36.0 0.0 468.6 0.0 8.7 6.1 1.2 16.0 484.6 4 341.1 91.5 28.8 0.0 461.4 0.0 8.7 1.8 2.1 12.5 473.9 5 341.1 91.5 28.8 0.0 461.4 0.0 8.7 1.8 1.2 11.6 473.0 6 341.1 91.5 28.8 0.0 461.4 0.0 8.7 1.8 1.3 11.7 473.1 7 341.1 91.5 0.0 0.0 432.6 0.0 8.7 1.0 4.8 14.5 447.1 8 341.1 91.5 0.0 0.0 432.6 0.0 8.7 1.0 1.4 11.1 443.7 9 341.1 91.5 0.0 0.0 432.6 0.0 8.7 1.0 0.8 10.5 443.1 10 341.1 236.4 47.4 0.0 624.9 0.0 5.1 3.4 10.7 19.2 644.1 11 341.1 236.4 47.4 0.0 624.9 0.0 5.1 3.4 0.1 8.6 633.5 12 341.1 236.4 47.4 0.0 624.9 0.0 5.1 3.4 0.0 8.5 633.4 13 341.1 236.4 0.0 0.0 577.5 0.0 5.1 3.2 11.8 20.1 597.6 14 341.1 236.4 0.0 0.0 577.5 0.0 5.1 3.2 2.7 11.0 588.5 15 341.1 236.4 0.0 0.0 577.5 0.0 5.1 3.2 2.5 10.8 588.3 16 341.1 236.4 0.0 0.0 577.5 0.0 5.1 1.5 2.7 9.3 586.8 17 341.1 236.4 0.0 0.0 577.5 0.0 5.1 1.5 2.5 9.1 586.6 18 341.1 236.4 0.0 0.0 577.5 0.0 5.1 1.5 1.2 7.9 585.4 Expected 515.2 14.0 529.2
197
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