Estresores laborales

From the survey of the five policy assessment frameworks in the previous section, Table 4.5 cross references three classification of energy policy action against the five policy assessment dimensions. The matrix set out below is now able to assess each policy action to see whether it satisfied the improved five policy assessment dimensions. One policy action (only legislative, only economic, or only organisational) does not always satisfy all five policy assessment dimensions. Thus it is important to assess the policy actions when all three policy action (legislative,

economic and organisation) are used in unison. The two shaded columns represent the base-case (before policy action) and the revised case (after policy action). One round of policy action does not guarantee China’s energy makeup will be an optimal revised-case. As long as CFEPS moved China one step closer towards an improved energy policy outcome, then CFEPS is deemed to have succeeded. Chinese energy policy is, therefore, moving in the intended direction.

Table 4.5: Template of how CFEPS is applied to evaluate China’s energy policy outcome

Starting Base-Case

for model run Areas of Policy Action Improvements Start point next run

* There are the areas to score in order to calculate the aggregate score before and after energy policy change

The current Chinese energy strategy considered in this research is based on the 11^th FYP, because the degree of energy policy outcome success from the 11^th FYP is available in published research, to test the CFEPS framework.

Economic Growth (15%)

The objective assessment of energy policy via an economic growth perspective is broken down into three parts, which are the productivity of economy, energy consumption, and energy investments.

Balanced GDP Growth

Innovation and improvements in technology finds a way to reduce emissions whilst increasing efficiency. This way, China will not necessarily sacrifice its rate of growth as much, whilst pursuing a climate change reversal agenda. Innovation is best supported under the new technologies and R&D deployment framework. The energy policies reflect a recognition of the requirement to establish a highly technical experimental economy with a view to improving energy technologies and emissions abatement technologies.

Improvement should ensure a GDP growth rate that also takes into consideration pollution and other areas of energy policy outcome, rather than just focussing on the maximisation economic growth. When China was a developing nation, a faster pace of economic growth was necessary to improve the overall welfare it its citizens.

However, China’s goals are beyond the simple aim of promoting economic growth.

China should seek to achieve a growth rate that balances its other important goals of GHG emissions, SoS, social equality, and governance.

Energy Consumption to Production Ratio

Energy consumption to production predicts the likelihood of blackouts. Following the Cobb-Douglas production function as discussed in Section 1.1, energy is a factor of production that is consumed as part of the production process. If energy consumption is based on expensive generation sources, the level of output in the economy will fall.

However, to support a level of energy use, the production has to match the level of consumption. Thus it is assume that all energy supply fully meets energy demand, that there are no shortfalls.

Improvements to the way China consumes energy could be via ensuring sufficient capacity is built so that the peak supply can meet the peak demand. Additionally energy demand could be controlled and reduced via a minimum efficiency standards set of indicators that act as thresholds of consumption efficiency for energy end-users.

For example they would require domestic appliances such as fridges to consume a specific MWh per hour at a temperature setting.

Energy Investments

Energy policies can promote economic growth from increased investments in the energy infrastructure grid and R&D into new innovation. Again, following the Cobb-Douglas production function, growth accelerates under conditions of increased energy investment (increasing China’s capital stock) and additional spending into innovation (increasing the technology constant). Investments into the energy grid improve capacity and efficiency of the grid networks. The increased capacity and efficiency facilitates more electricity being distributed at lower inefficiency losses.

Improvements to energy investments could be realised through public project initiatives and investments in R&D. Both measures are ways the government directly funds the energy sector in areas China and is advised to improve on. If certain areas are neglected by the private sector in terms of capital allocation, the central government can directly promote these areas.

Climate Change Mitigation (30%)

The objective assessment energy policy via a climate change mitigation perspective is broken down into atmospheric CO2 emissions, energy efficiency and intensity and emissions intensity.

Atmospheric CO2 Emissions

A cap on CO2 emissions is an explicit limit of the amount of gasses allowable to be released into the atmosphere. However, rather than a national policy, there is greater benefit in an international agreement like the Kyoto Protocol. Only via a global agreement, will nations be sufficiently bound to follow hard CO2 limits. The annual COPs have increasingly called for greater commitments and stricter emission caps. As the USA as the second largest CO2 and other nations sign up to the COPs, it is only a matter of when rather than if China will accept the strict emissions terms.

Energy Efficiency and Intensity

Emissions reduction does not only come from changing the generation mix but also improve the efficiency of energy use. If consumers were to conserve energy and use

diligently, emissions would also fall. Energy efficiency could be better targeted by China. The energy policies do not explicitly prescribe how stakeholders and end users of energy should conserve. Instead, focus is cast on energy intensity targets. If more guidance was provided to stakeholders (residential and commercial) on how to increase energy efficiency, the aim of these energy policies may be realised sooner.

The energy policies recognise the importance of emissions intensity, as China prescribes a suite of mainly regulatory instruments. The strictest policies proposed by the Plan as its carbon limits and power plant generation standards. The GHG tax on carbon and the path towards implementing a carbon trading market also proves potentially to be an effective policy instrument. China’s Renewable Energy Law supports R&D into alternative low carbon generation technologies. However the GHG tax level is far lower than those proposed by the EU and OECD. Furthermore, there is a lack of choice for consumers. Even if consumers were properly informed and wanted to make socially responsible energy consumption choices, they cannot choose to only purchase sustainable energy.

Improvements to energy efficiency and reduction in energy intensity can be achieved via minimum efficiency standards and investment for R&D. Minimum efficiency standards helps China reach a minimum efficiency level. Investment into energy R&D reduces the level of energy intensity required for China’s generation needs.

Security of Energy Supply (20%)

The objective assessment energy policy from a SoS perspective is broken down into dependence on hydrocarbon imports, hydrocarbon and coal supplies and generation mix diversification.

Dependence on Hydrocarbon and Coal Imports

As previously mentioned in Chapter 1, fossil fuel powered vehicles continue China’s reliance on crude oil imports. China, as mentioned in Section 1.1 also became a net importer of coal in 2009, importing 103 million tons (Yu, 2010). Not only is this a concern for emissions, but also for China’s SoS. There are two ways of improving supplies, firstly to increase exploration for more supplies, secondly to reduce consumption. As a nation’s generation mix moves away from consumption of tradition fuels, the issue of needing additional supplies of hydrocarbon diminishes.

China’s energy policies of moving away from traditional hydrocarbon fuels and coal help meet this. The use of new fuel technologies and greater fuel efficiency in the transport sector could reduce China’s imports of crude oil by 676 million barrels a year by 2020. The information dissemination and public awareness policy action makes the greatest difference to reducing emissions from vehicles in the long-run. If consumers were educated to accept hybrid and electric vehicles as being superior over internal combustion engines, China’s vehicle emissions, assuming the transport section is continuously expanding, could grow at a decelerated rate.

Improvements to reducing hydrocarbon imports can be from stricter targets for use of low carbon sources, capital grants & subsidies for sustainable generation and feed in tariffs. Stricter targets for use of low carbon sources explicitly limit the dependence of China on oil and gas. This will encourage China to move towards electric vehicles for transportation (away from oil) and for heat (away from gas and coal). Capital grants

& subsidies for sustainable generation provide upfront incentives for generation to move away from the imported hydrocarbons at the outset of project Feed in tariffs incentivise energy producers during production to generate more sustainable energy and receive greater levels of the tariffs.

Generation Mix Diversification

China expects to reduce its generation mix from traditional energy generation technologies to alternative technologies in an attempt to reduce dependence on oil and natural gas. China’s current generation mix is heavily skewed towards coal, accounting for 70% of the generation mix and hydrocarbons making up 91%, any policy instruments which require a reduction in emissions will naturally move China away from fossil fuel-powered generation towards alternative and sustainable generation technologies.

Improvements to a more diversified energy generation mix can be realised through emissions restrictions for major emitters and GHG taxes and emissions quotas. As previously shown, the current generation mix is heavily biased towards fossil fuels, coal in particular. Emissions restrictions for major emitters moves the generation mix away from carbon heavy generation methods towards more sustainable generation methods. GHG taxes increases the cost to producers of carbon heavy generation methods. Emissions quotas cap the amount of total emissions. Both taxes and quotes

discourage traditional fossil fuel driven methods and diversifies the generation mix towards more sustainable technologies.

Social Equality (20%)

The objective assessment of energy policy via a social equality perspective is accounted for via grid energy access.

Grid Energy Access

The energy policies seek to increase social equality and equality of energy users. The energy infrastructure goal of the FYP is aimed at the electricity transmission network across the length and breadth of China. This improves access to grid energy for a greater number of consumers. The energy infrastructure is expected to be overhauled with a greater number of end users with access to grid electricity. Improvements to the energy infrastructure can only come from government funding and central work plans. The amount of capital expenditure to cover the vast landmass of China can only be effectively undertaken by public project initiatives.

Improvements to grid access can be realised through supportive transmission tariffs and access, and public project initiatives. Supportive transmission tariffs and access promotes renewable energy sources to receive priority grid access. Assuming there is connectivity to the main grid, it ensures any renewable energy generated will not be rejected by the grid. Public project initiatives are more suited to large capital heavy project such as the electricity grid. These public initiatives increase the coverage of the grid so better connect the more remotely located renewable energy generation sites.

Governance (15%)

The objective assessment energy policy via a social equality and equality perspective is accounted for, under political stability & coherence, public participation and regulatory quality.

Political Stability and Coherence

The energy policies improve stability and coherence. The Plan sets out targets that stakeholders and participants in the energy industry can observe and follow. Unlike Western nations, where newly elected governments implement changing energy

policies, the Chinese FYP provides the beacon for China to take a more consistent stance on future energy policies.

Improvements to political stability and coherence could be addressed by not altering the energy policies in place in an unpredictable manner. If legislative, economic and governance policies exhibit stability and ample warning of policy change is communicated with the energy stakeholders, parties will be better prepared for policy changes. If energy policies change on an ad-hoc basis, then energy stakeholders will suffer from confusion due to lack of policy coherence.

Public Participation

The policies do not encourage stakeholders and participants in the energy sector to participate in the energy policy decision making process. As discussed in Section 2.2, the central command-and-control nature of the Communist Party sets the strategic direction for the energy industry to follow. However, there are think tanks and academic institutions which feed into the decision making process of the energy policy decision makers. The ultimately decision still lies in with Community Party, thus this poses a large operational risk that the direction taken may not always yield the optimal solution.

Improvements in public participation seek to increase the dialogue of energy stakeholders with the decision makers of energy policies. Instead of implementing a specific energy policy action, improvements in public participation depend on what policies are set in China. A greater degree of involvement and public participation in the decision making process will help improve this area.

Regulatory Quality

A broader consideration is needed of the overall quality of regulations for energy policies and other areas of policy making. Improvements in regulatory quality may be realised through increased monitoring of energy policies. Monitoring of energy policies may ensure policies which are sound in theory but also become realised in practice. Regular reviews of the intended effect versus the actual effect of energy policies that can allow policy makers to make adjustments to policy actions are advisable. This will help China move in the intended direction towards energy change.