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As Redwood City strategically attracts wealthy employ- ers, employees, and developers to its downtown, the surrounding neighborhoods may become vulnerable to being displaced from what is now one of the most affordable cities on the Peninsula. The high proportion of minority residents exacerbates this vulnerability, as language barriers, racism, and discrimination lead to weaker representation in city politics.

Income and Poverty

Redwood City’s median household income in 2013 was $79,419, compared with $88,202 for San Mateo County. This figure, though, obscures the larger income discrepancy between Redwood City and neighboring communities like Atherton. Of the 20 incorporated cit- ies in San Mateo County, Redwood City has one of the lowest median income levels (“Social Explorer” 2014). The Redwood City Caltrain station may be considered an emblem of the city’s efforts to tap into the regional economy: The biggest income gap between two neigh- boring Caltrain stations less than three miles apart occurs between Redwood City and Atherton, with a median income of $193,000 (Green 2013).

There are also significant income disparities among Redwood City’s neighborhoods. Figure 8.1 shows each tract’s median income in 2013. There are lower-income communities immediately surrounding downtown and to its southeast in the Stambaugh Heller and Redwood Village neighborhoods, and much wealthier Oak Knoll/ Edgewood neighborhoods to the northwest and in the hills. Seven out of eight of our study tracts have aver- age incomes below the city median.

In addition, the poverty rates differ substantially be- tween the study area and San Mateo County, and be- tween the tracts, as shown in Table 8.1. Poverty rates have risen between 1980 and 2013 in six of the eight tracts in all but two tracts, 6100 and 6101, which have historically been more affluent than other tracts in the study area. It is also worth noting the sharp rise in pov- erty rates in Tracts 6102.3 and 6109 in the last ten years between 2000 and 2013.

Population and Family Changes

The study area has seen significant population growth overall from 1980 to 2013, however, much of

Figure 8.1: Median Household Income Levels in Study Tracts, 2013

Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey

this growth took place between 1980 and 1990, as shown in Table 8.2. Since 1990, population growth has slowed down substantially. Redwood City downtown growth was much higher than the county’s as a whole between 1980 and 1990. In the last decade the study area’s population declined while the county’s growth continued but at a slower pace. It is worth noting that not all of the areas in and around downtown grew at the same rate. The areas on the east side of El Camino Real Road, a relatively dense area with residential du- plex, multi-family homes and commercial strips, grew much more quickly that areas on the west side of it. Since 1980, the majority of households in the study area have been families, as shown in Figure 8.2. The ratio of family to non-family households has increased.

Table 8.2: Population, 1980 – 2013

Redwood City San Mateo County

Year Total Change (%) Total Change (%) 1980 25,668 -- 587,289 -- 1990 31,950 24% 649,623 11% 2000 35,831 12% 707,161 9% 2013 37,564 5% 729,543 3% Percent change 1980 - 2013 -- 46% -- 24%

Source: US Census 1980, 1990, 2000 (Geolytics 2014); American Community Survey 2009-2013

Table 8.1: Poverty Rates in Redwood City Tracts compared to San Mateo County, 1980-2013 1980 1990 2000 2013 Percent change 1980-2013 Percent change 2000-2013 San Mateo 6% 6% 6% 8% 2% 2% Study tracts average 10% 13% 9% 14% 4% 5% 6100 6% 5% 4% 2% -4% -2% 6101 15% 6% 7% 4% -11% -3% 6102.1 14% 17% 13% 20% 6% 7% 6102.2 14% 16% 8% 17% 3% 9% 6102.3 14% 17% 6% 25% 11% 19% 6105 9% 20% 16% 24% 15% 8% 6107 9% 10% 8% 10% 1% 2% 6109 10% 4% 14% 6% 10%

Source: US Census, 1980, 1990, 2000 (Geolytics 2014); American Community Survey 2009-2013

Figure 8.2: Total Households in Redwood City, 1980 – 2013

Source: Census 1980, 1990, 2000 (Geolytics, 2014); American Community Survey 2009-2013

Race and Ethnicity

Income disparities mirror racial demographics. The population of Latino residents in these eight census tracts has increased overall from 26% to 60% of the total from 1980 to 2013, but these changes vary sig- nificantly by tract, with Latino residents overrepresent- ed in lower income tracts. In keeping with this trend, these lower income tracts have a higher proportion of minority residents compared to the city as a whole, where just 40% are Latino. In particular, it is worth not- ing that a high proportion of Latino families live in the North Fair Oaks neighborhood adjacent to Redwood City. This area contains some older homes on smaller lots and many older apartment buildings. At the same

time, the area is providing flexible space for business- es, including new technologies and light industrial uses. It has a concentration of low-income people and, depending on how Redwood City’s development progresses, could face displacement pressures in the future as a result. There have been significant chang- es in the study area’s racial composition from 1980 to 2013, as shown in Figure 8.3, as the percentage of Hispanic and Latino population has increased steadily, while the White population has fallen. The proportions of Asian and Black populations have remained fairly constant over the four decades.

Housing

The housing stock in the study area has grown by ap- proximately 1,000 units between 1980 and 2013, as shown in Table 8.3. This represents a 9% increase, which is relatively low especially when considering the 46% population increase during the same time period. The vacancy rate has remained low overall.

Table 8.3: Redwood City Housing Units and Vacancies, 1980-2013

Year Total Housing

Units Vacant Units Vacancy Rate 1980 11,541 367 3% 1990 11,980 554 5% 2000 12,117 258 2% 2009-2013 12,585 633 5%

Source: U.S. Census 1980, 1990, 2000 (Geolytics 2014); American Community Survey 2009-2013

Figure 8.3: Redwood City Race/Ethnicity by Percent, 1980 – 2013

Figure 8.4: Housing Tenure in Redwood City, 1980-2013

Source: U.S. Census 1980, 1990, 2000 (Geolytics 2014); American Community Survey 2009-2013

Redwood City Study Area San Mateo County

Figure 8.5: Median Rent, 1980-2013

Source: U.S. Census 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 (Geolytics 2014), U.S. Census 2013 ACS 5-year estimates

The study area has many more renters than owners (Figure 8.4), which makes the residents here more susceptible to displacement.

Costs for Renters and Owners

Both the study area and San Mateo County as a whole have seen a steady increase in rents over time, except for the period 2000-2010 when rents declined due, as shown in Figure 8.5. By 2013, the median rental price in the study area had risen above the pre-recession level, increasing faster than the county as a whole. Rising housing costs that are comparatively low com- pared to the surrounding area may indicate suscepti- bility to gentrification.

While the Downtown area has historically had a low- er housing cost compared to the County overall, this is changing given new construction there, with rents starting at $4,000 and up, according to a stakeholder. Households in Downtown face significant housing cost burdens, defined as paying 35% or more of income towards housing costs. Figure 8.6 shows a substantial proportion of households in the study area bear heavy housing cost burdens, particularly rental households.

Both mortgage and rent burdens have climbed since 1980 but increased more sharply between 2000 and 2013. By 2013, 59% of households in the study area were rent burdened.

Overcrowding

In 2000, over 40% of households in the study area reported “overcrowding” or “extreme overcrowding”. However, overcrowding decreased over the following decade with 17% of households being overcrowded and 11% reporting extreme overcrowding in 2010, and the trend continued into 2013, as shown in Fig- ure 8.7. The level of overcrowding in the study area in 2013 is similar to that of Redwood City as reported in the Housing Element 2015-2023 draft report. Despite this progress, Redwood City still has a higher num- bers of overcrowded rental homes than elsewhere in the county and overcrowding remains a key concern (Housing Element 2015-2023, September 2014).

Figure 8.6: Redwood City Percentage of Housing Units with Rent or Mortgage Burdens, 1980-2013

Source: U.S. Census 1980, 1990, 2000 (Geolytics 2014); American Community Survey 2009-2013

Figure 8.7: Redwood City Overcrowding by Percentage of Housing Units, 2000, 2010 and 2013

Source: U.S. Census 2000 (Geolytics 2014); American Community Survey 2006-2010 and 2009-2013

Home Ownership

Overall, sale prices have trended upward between 1988 and 2014, with the spike and decrease of the housing bubble evident in the mid-2000s (Figure 8.8 and Figure 8.9). This trend could increase the risk of displacement of low-income residents.