Evaluación de la estación de combustibles

In the modelling section (section 7.2), the intensity and direction of traffic flow resulting from the changes in station use is also of interest. The traffic flow is characterized by the link loads, represented as the black arrows and [Q] in Figure 27. These numbers comprise of the passengers travelling between two stations resulting from the boarding and alighting passengers at each station, including both the transferring and entering and exiting passengers. No distinction was made between commuters and non-commuters. The direction of travel can be categorised in either moving towards Tokyo (Shibuya direction, to DT01) or moving away from Tokyo (Chūō-Rinkan direction, to DT27). Although the loads in both directions are very similar, they are not identical over the course of a day. The link loads between the Den-En Toshi line stations for the years 1982 to 2009 are depicted

in Figure 29. There was no additional effort taken to obtain link loads for the years 2010 to 2012 from

the additional Tokyu data as it does not contain enough detail to determine these values accurately.

Figure 29: Link loads between stations

The graphs show a skewed distribution of the link loads over the entire length of the Den-En Toshi line. It seems as if the differences in link loads over the years became even greater. However between Shibuya (DT01) and Mizonokuchi (DT10) a large decrease in link loads can be observed between 2008 and 2009. This is most likely due to both the introduction of the Ōimachi line extension in 2008 and the global economic crisis. This seems to restore some of the imbalance in link loads over the line. Also noteworthy is that a large portion of the passengers travelling from the far end of the line seem to travel to Futako-Tamagawa (DT07).

5.5.3

Economic

Because the dataset created not only allows for cross-sectional research but the studying of changes over time it is important to include environmental influences in the modelling efforts. For example Wardman (2006) states that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the state of the economy, using the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an indicator. Therefore, this indicator is included in the time-series modelling efforts of this research to investigate whether it has a significant influence on the development of station area use over time. The data for the GDP indicator was obtained from the World Bank, where this data is freely available (http://data.worldbank.org/). Figure 30 shows the GDP of Japan in constant 2005 US Dollar from 1960 to 2013. Additionally a magnification is given of the period between 1998 and 2013.

Figure 30: GDP of Japan

In the left figure, it can be seen that Japan has experienced a steady increase in the GDP with only very minor hitches up until the 1990’s. In the early 90’s a major economic crisis hits japan resulting in the so called “Lost decade”. The effects of this crisis on station use can be easily distinguished in

Figure 28 in section 5.5.1. By the end of the 90’s, the GDP starts to recover again and returns to a

steady but less steep growth until the global financial crisis in 2008. As the data for measuring the density and diversity of activities only ranges from 1998 to 2012 it was not possible to study the effects of the “Lost decade” on station use. However the inclusion of the 2008 global financial crisis might be able provide the necessary insights into the effect of the GDP on station use.

5.6

Conclusion

This chapter described how the station area characteristics are measured in order to conduct an analysis of the performance of these station areas and how this relates to traffic flow. It has given a first insight into the characteristics of the Den-En Toshi line stations and how these developed over time. Concluding this chapter, research questions 3 and 4 posed in section 3.3 can be answered. In section 5.2, the station area itself was defined using access and egress trips to and from the Den- En Toshi line stations. As the focus in this research was on the direct surroundings of the station itself, it was chosen to use a set action radius as the boundary of the station area. The action radius was determined by investigating the distance travelled of its access and egress trips. In the Den-En Toshi line station areas the major access and egress mode is walking, accounting for over 80% of all trips. Therefore, it was argued that an action radius can be derived from the walkable radius, similar to Bertolini (1999). As can be seen in the cumulative distribution curve in Figure 16, all walking trips are made within 1500 metres of the stations, and 75% of all walking trips already falls within 700 metres. For this case study, the station area was therefore defined by a 700 metre walkable radius.

In order to develop a forecast model for passenger numbers as a function of station area characteristics, the proper indicators to measure these characteristics were determined based on theory, previous research and data availability. The preliminary indicator study in section 5.1 showed that only limited data is consistently available over a longer period of time. The main data sources selected are: the population census that is released every 5 year, accounting for the intensity and diversity of activities within the station areas. Furthermore, timetable data was selected to account for the accessibility of the station areas, a yearly city wide transportation census to account for the station use and traffic flow and finally economic data to account for major environmental effects. These data resulted in the following indicators being used in this research:

 Population

 Workforce-cluster 1 (Transportation, information, communication, finance, real estate, research, education, welfare, public services and living related services)

 Workforce-cluster 2 (Hotel, restaurant, café and retail)

 Workforce-cluster 3 (Agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, construction, manufacturing and utility)

 Multi-functionality  Station type

 Number of directions  Frequency

 Travel time to centre

 GDP

 Passengers

For this research, a dataset of these indicators, measuring the station area characteristics of 26 of the 27 Den-En Toshi line stations, was constructed for 15 consecutive years, spanning from 1998 to 2012. Based on the indicators described in this chapter the descriptive model was developed in Chapter 0. Furthermore, the station area characteristics were used in the Node-Place model, in Chapter 7.