Evaluación de un modelo de población

Information about Reporting

The business outlook is based on the assumption that the domestic and international economy and air traffic will not be impaired by external shocks such as terrorist attacks, wars, epidemics, natural catastrophes, or renewed turbulences on the financial markets. Moreover, statements concerning the anticipated asset, financial, and earnings position reflect the accounting standards to be applied in the EU at the start of the 2016 fiscal year. No material effects on the asset, financial, and earnings position will result from amendments of the accounting standards. The medium-term forecasted period comprises a period of five years. As already described in the General Statement of the Outlook Report, at the time of preparing the consolidated financial statements the Ex- ecutive Board assumes that it will close the transaction to operate the 14 Greek regional airports at the end of 2016. As there were still con- ditions precedent at the time of preparing the consolidated financial statements (see chapter titled “Significant Events” on page 48), there is, however, the possibility that the closing of the transaction will be delayed. The Executive Board therefore forecasts the development of the asset, financial, and earnings position for the 2016 fiscal year first without effects from the closing of the Greece transaction, followed by a forecast of the impact of the transaction. The order selected does not reflect the probability of occurrence expected by the Executive Board, but rather is aimed at giving the reader the best possible transparency and comprehensibility of the future development, as the comparable company development of the previous fiscal year is presented first. Risks and opportunities that do not form part of the business outlook and may lead to significant negative or positive changes to the fore- casted developments can be found in the chapter entitled “Risk and Opportunities Report” starting on page 75.

Forecasted situation of the Group for 2016

Development of structure

The planned closing of the transaction for the operation of the 14 Greek regional airports will result in a new key Group site (“Greece”). The site will in future have a material impact on the Group’s asset, financial, and earnings position. The Executive Board does not expect any further changes to the Group structure in fiscal year 2016 that will have a significant impact on the asset, financial, and earnings position.

Development of strategy

As described in the “Strategy” chapter on page 33, the new mission statement converts the previous strategy “Agenda 2015” into a new strategy. This will be introduced in the Group starting from 2016 and rolled out in the individual segments and Group companies. The new mission statement underpins the existing business model and

the Group’s current plans. The Executive Board does not anticipate any material effects on the structure of the Fraport Group or impacts on the future asset, financial, and earnings position from the change.

Development of control

Compared with the 2015 fiscal year, the Executive Board does not expect any fundamental changes in 2016 in the financial and non- financial performance indicators that are used to control the Group and derived from the strategy. Due to regular reviews and the further development of the Group strategy, however, changes to individual parameters and key figures may arise. The Executive Board does not expect any fundamental changes to the strategic focus of finance management in 2016.

Forecasted economic and industry-specific conditions for 2016

Development of the economic conditions

Financial and economic institutions expect the global economy to expand further in the 2016 fiscal year. Following global economic growth of approximately 3.1 % in 2015, an increase of 3.0 % to 3.4 % is expected for the current fiscal year. Global trade will rise by up to 3.4 %, according to current forecasts. Overall, inflation is expected to be moderate. The expansionary monetary support by central banks counteracts the price decrease in commodity markets. With regard to the € to US$ exchange rate, it is assumed that the slight depreciation trend will continue. With regard to the oil price, oil futures suggest a slight price rise. However, the opening of the Iranian market could counteract a price increase.

The USA will continue to show positive growth in 2016 (GDP forecast approximately 2.0 to 2.6 %). While only moderate development is anticipated in Japan – due to limited economic policy stimulus and the consolidation of public finances – the growth rates for emerging countries are again expected to significantly exceed those for indus- trial countries. Growth in China is likely to weaken. As before, only a recovery and not an upturn is anticipated in the Eurozone, which will continue to be burdened with political uncertainty. After achieving growth of 1.5 % in 2015, economic growth of approximately 1.7 % is forecasted for the 2016 fiscal year. For Germany, many forecasts continue to expect growth at the level of the past year (2015: +1.7 %). The favorable oil price and weak € support export. The mainstay of the economy will be government and private consumption.

The following growth rates are expected for the countries with key investments: Slovenia +1.8 %, Peru +3.3 %, Greece – 1.3 %, Bulgaria +1.9 %, Turkey +2.9 %, Russia – 1.0 %, and China +6.3 %.

Sources: OECD (February 2016), IMF (January 2016, October 2015), Deutsche Bank Research (January 2016), DekaBank (December 2015), German Federal Statistical Office (January 2016).

Development of the legal environment

At the time the consolidated annual financial statements were prepared, the Executive Board saw no changes in the legal environment in the 2016 fiscal year that will have significant effects on the Fraport Group.

Development of the global aviation market

Based on the expected development of economic conditions, and taking into account the financial situation of the airlines, IATA anticipates global passenger growth of 6.9 % in 2016, based on revenue passenger kilometers (RPK). Regionally IATA anticipates the following growth rates (also based on RPK): Europe: 5.9 %, North America: 4.4 %, Asia-Pacific: 8.0 %, Latin America: 6.8 %, Middle East: 12.5 %, and Africa: 1.4 %. Globally, cargo is expected to grow by 2.8 %. Positive stimulus is also expected from the low price forecasted for crude oil. With regard to global passenger numbers, DKMA expects growth of 4.5 % in 2016. On the basis of the German airports, ADV forecasts solid passenger growth of 3.1 % despite international crises and strikes. ADV also expects an increase of 1.7 % in the area of cargo.

Source: IATA “Airline Industry Economic Performance” (December 2015), DKMA (December 2015), ADV Forecast, press release (December 2015). Forecasted business development for 2016

Taking economic and industry-specific conditions into account and the currently hard to predict intensity of any strikes and development of core tourist markets resulting from geopolitical crises, the Executive Board expects a growth rate of between approximately 1 % and around 3 % for passenger traffic at the Frankfurt site for fiscal year 2016. While the slightly favorable economic environment will continue to have a positive impact on passenger business, uncertainties continue to result from political crises and airlines’ short-term yield and capacity management. With regard to cargo tonnage handled, the Executive Board does not expect a significant recovery compared to 2015 in fiscal year 2016 and expects cargo throughput at around the level of 2015. The reasons for this are particularly the slower forecasted economic growth in China, which will have a negative impact on the country’s imports and exports, and political crises, particularly in Russia and the Middle East.

As a result of the positive economic assumptions and tourism forecasts, the Executive Board largely expects further growth at the Group sites outside of Frankfurt in 2016. The sites in Lima and Xi’an continue to experience disproportionately strong growth of 5 % and more. The growth rates at the Ljubljana and Hanover sites are also expected to be robust in the mid-single-digit percentage range. Uncertainties continue to result from the political crises between Russia and Ukraine

and between Russia and Turkey. These will particularly impact traffic development at the St. Petersburg, Antalya , Varna and Burgas sites. Here, travel restrictions between Russia and Turkey will have a negative impact on the Antalya and St. Petersburg sites. In connection with the terrorist attacks that have taken place in Istanbul and Ankara since the start of 2016, there is additionally a negative development in tourist traffic in Antalya in fiscal year 2016 to be expected. If the situation remains tense or if crises intensify, significant decreases in passenger numbers at the sites cannot be ruled out. Russian passengers switching to alternative vacation destinations may, in contrast, have a positive impact on the Varna and Burgas sites, meaning that figures slightly higher than the previous year’s level are expected for these sites.

Forecasted results of operations for 2016

The expected overall positive business development will be reflected in an increase in 2016 Group revenue. The Executive Board expects additional revenue from the Retail & Real Estate segment at the Frank- furt site over and above the traffic development in 2016. Due to the withdrawal of the charge proposal for the Frankfurt site (see also the “Significant Events” chapter on page 48), the Executive Board does not expect a price rise in airport charges in the current 2016 fiscal year. The Executive Board expects negative effects from, among other things, the absence of revenue from the Group companies FCS, Air-Transport IT Services, Inc. and FSG Flughafen-Service GmbH, whose shares were in some cases fully divested in fiscal year 2015. In Frankfurt, the Executive Board also expects a decrease in revenue in the security business due to the loss of the tender to perform security services at Pier B. At sites outside of Frankfurt, the Group companies Lima and Ljubljana will continue to develop positively. As in the previous fiscal year, the financial development of the Lima site will additionally be influenced by exchange rate effects in connection with the translation of the reve- nue denominated in US$ into the Group currency. Depending on the extent of growth in passenger numbers at the consolidated airports, the Executive Board expects Group revenue of up to approximately €2.65 billion. The Executive Board is also taking higher capacitive capital expenditure in connection with the application of IFRIC 12 in the Group company Lima into account here.

Adjusted for the recognition of capacitive capital expenditure, the Executive Board expects a slight decrease in expenses in 2016. This will result, inter alia, from the absence of expenses from the Group companies FCS, Air-Transport IT Services, Inc. and FSG. On a compara- ble basis, at the Frankfurt site a slight increase on the expense side will result primarily from increases in salaries and wages. In the Lima Group company, higher traffic-related concession payments are also expected.

Overall, the Executive Board expects a Group EBITDA of between around €850 million and approximately €880 million for the 2016 fiscal year. Slightly higher depreciation and amortization will lead to a Group EBIT of approximately €520 million up to about €550 million. Due to the continuing difficulty in predicting interest-rate and ex- change-rate effects and the difficulty in estimating the Group company Antalya’s operating, and financial development, the development of the 2016 financial result can only be predicted to a limited extent. Positive effects are, among other things, assumed from net financial debt decreasing during the year, lower interest rates and the positive expectations of the business development of Group company Xi’an, which is accounted for using the equity method. In view of the earnings performance of the Group company Antalya, the Executive Board expects a negative effect on the result of companies account- ed for using the equity method of up to approximately €30 million. Depending on the deterioration of the Group company Antalya, the Executive Board therefore expects the financial result to decrease by up to approximately €15 million.

The positive development of Group EBIT and the assumed negative development of the financial result will lead to a Group EBT of between approximately €420 million and about €450 million. The Executive Board therefore expects the Group result to be approximately at the previous year’s level or slightly above it. If the Group company in Antalya performs more positively or negatively than previously assumed, the Group EBT and Group result figures may differ from the aforementioned ranges.

The development of the Group company Antalya will also influence the development of 2016 Group value added. While the assumed overall positive development of Group EBIT will have the impact of increasing the 2016 value added, due to the development of the Group company Antalya, the Executive Board in total expects value added to be between approximately at the previous year’s level and approx- imately €30 million below it. ROFRA will accordingly be at the level of fiscal year 2015 or fall similarly to the decrease of the value added. In the event that the Greece transaction will be closed at the end of 2016, the following possible effects on the Fraport Group’s results of operations will arise:

In the event of closing the transaction and takeover of the business at the end of 2016 – depending on the date of the takeover – revenue growth of up to approximately €25 million and only a slight impact on Group EBITDA are expected. This is particularly connected with the fact that as at the date of takeover, a significant part of the tourist season will already be over. Due to pro rata depreciation and amortization, the Executive Board expects a negative effect on Group EBIT of up to approximately €10 million. In connection with financing the Greece transaction, the Executive Board expects a negative contribution to Group EBT and to the Group result of between around €10 million and approximately €30 million – depending on the date of the takeover.

In connection with the first-time accounting of the concessions to operate the Greek regional airports, the Executive Board also expects a rise in Group capital costs and thus a negative effect on the value added of up to approximately €20 million. Correspondingly, ROFRA will be negatively impacted by Greece.

In view of the long-term positive outlook for earnings, the Executive Board intends to hold the dividend per share at least stable for fiscal year 2016 at €1.35.

Forecasted segment development for 2016

For the segment forecasts, the Executive Board, for simplification purposes, expects passenger growth of 2 % in Frankfurt. As a result of the aforementioned range for passenger growth in Frankfurt of ap- proximately 1 % to around 3 %, segment developments in fiscal year 2016 may also deviate from the following descriptions.

The assumed passenger growth at the Frankfurt site will have a positive impact on the Aviation segment’s revenue development in 2016. Due to the withdrawal of the charge proposal for the 2016 fiscal year (see also the “Significant Events” chapter on page 48), the Executive Board does not expect a price rise in airport charges in the current fiscal year. The Executive Board forecasts the revenue from security services at below the level of fiscal year 2015 primarily due to the loss of the tender to perform security services at Pier B in Frankfurt. Depending on traffic development in fiscal year 2016, the Executive Board therefore expects revenue in the Aviation segment to be approximately at the level of the 2015 fiscal year or slightly below it.

On the expense side, the Executive Board forecasts a decrease. The rea- son for this will, among other things, be the absence of base effects in connection with the creation of provisions in fiscal year 2015. At lower forecasted other income and revenue being assumed at approximately the previous year’s level to slightly below it, the planned decrease in expenses will lead to segment EBITDA slightly above the level of 2015. Assumed slightly lower depreciation and amortization will lead to a slightly more positive development of segment EBIT in 2016. The value added of the segment will also benefit from the slightly positive development of segment EBIT, but remain clearly in negative territory. The Retail & Real Estate segment will also benefit from the positive passenger outlook at the Frankfurt site in 2016, which will primarily impact revenue in the Retail division. Additional revenue will result from a change to the offsetting of rental income from the Group com- pany FCS, which will be consolidated in the Group using the equity method for the entire 2016 fiscal year. The change to offsetting will not have the impact of increasing segment EBITDA. Overall, the Executive Board forecasts a rise in revenue of up to approximately €20 million, with around €7 to 8 million of additional revenue from the change in the offsetting of rental income of FCS being assumed. Beyond the planned development of revenue, currency rate effects can have both positive and negative effects on the purchasing power of passengers.

The realization or absence of land sales may also lead to additional rev- enue as well as a decrease in revenue in the segment. On the expense side, the Executive Board is expecting a slight increase in personnel expenses for fiscal year 2016. The realization of land sales or the absence of these may also have an impact on expense development. Despite the forecasted rise in revenue, partly due to the assumed decrease in other income, the Executive Board expects flat to slightly decreasing figures for the segment EBITDA and EBIT. The Executive Board also expects the level of the 2016 segment value added to remain almost flat or decrease.

The assumed passenger growth will also have a positive impact on the Ground Handling segment’s revenue development in 2016. The absence of revenue from the Group company FCS, which has been consolidated in the Group using the equity method as of November 2015, will have the opposite effect. Contrary to the 2015 fiscal year, the 2016 forecast does not contain any price changes to the infrastructure charges. Overall, due to the absence of revenue from the Group com- pany FCS, the Executive Board expects a decrease in revenue in the Ground Handling segment of up to approximately €40 million. Due to the Group company FCS’s low operating margin, this will, however, only have an insignificant impact on the segment’s EBITDA in 2016. In connection with the positive underlying operating development, the Executive Board therefore expects segment EBITDA to be slightly higher than the figure for fiscal year 2015. On an assumed decrease in depreciation and amortization, the Executive Board expects segment EBIT to increase slightly more than EBITDA. The segment value added is also expected to be slightly higher on a slight decrease in capital costs. In connection with the expected positive business developments in the Group companies Lima and Ljubljana and the recognition of earnings-neutral capacitive capital expenditure in connection with the application of IFRIC 12, the Executive Board expects a significant increase in revenue in the External Activities & Services segment for fiscal year 2016. As in the previous fiscal year, the financial development of the Lima site will additionally be influenced by exchange rate effects