2.2. BASE TEÓRICA
2.2.2. Teoría de la Contingencia de Fred E. Fiedler
Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: Houston, Texas Posts: 169
60MM, I took 7 of these trades over the last 10 days of trading. 5 of those trades were a combinati on of s/d trades taken whe n a CBL formed. All 7 trades were winners. Using the CBL allowed me to enter the trades at a good time and not jump in too early while the price still had some move to make against me within or near the identified zone. This is a small sample, and I'd usually want to see about 20 winning trades before judging a system, but it looks very promising. I particularly like combining the s/d with the CBL as it he lps time the entry.
One thing I'd offer caution about is being hardheaded about any system. Most systems work well in some situati ons and not in othe rs. It's important to understand when your particular system works and whe n it doesn't. This system works well when there is no earth shattering fundamental news driving the market in only one direction. You don't need to monitor news wires for that sort of information since it will be the lead story on any news broadcast, like CNN. The N. Korean shelling of S. Korean ter ritory last week was some such earth shattering fundamental news that drove investors into the U SD and ment tha t price would not return to supply zones as usual, but rathe r fall, and then fall even more. So in conclusion, this system works well m,ost of the time when news is minor and price just swings from supply zones to demand zones and back again over and over. This system does not work well when major fundamental ne ws drives price in only one dirrectio n or anothe r. That is a different setup that should be
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accounted for. It's a rare thing, happening only once a month or so, but it can be very profitable if it's recognized, and very costly if not. 11-28-2010, 06:15 PM
60minuteman
Se nior Memb er Join Date : N ov 2 010 Posts: 157Grav thats great news, Im glad to have you on board and I value your opinion with regards anything trading wise...
The fundamental issue you have pointed out is true, i discovered by losing lots of pips.... but good to know for the future, I avoided this by switching to my exotic pairs and had good success ther e... so barring global warfare there will always be pairs to trade using this system.
and wow... thats a cracking win rate!
the cbl combined is excellent for timing entries, and correct me if im wrong, is this the missing piece of the puzzle in bb dna, is this the key to the no trade zones?????
11-28-2010, 06:19 PM
60minuteman
Se nior Memb erJoin Date : N ov 2 010 Posts: 157
heres a few numbers and pairs, not saying trade these numbers, but just areas to watch au 0.9575 ea 1.3840 ej 107.50 gu 1.5500 nu 0.7440 uchf 1.0175 uj 86????? cj 81.40 83.00 11-28-2010, 06:51 PM
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Graviton
Senior Memb er
Quot e:
Originally Posted by 60minuteman
Grav thats great news, Im glad to have you on board and I value your opinion with regards anything trading wise... The fundamental issue you have pointed out is true, i discovered by losing lots of pips.... but good to know for the future, I avoided this by switching to my exotic pairs and ha d good success ther e... so barring global warfare there will always be pairs to trade using this system.
and wow... tha ts a cracking win rate!
the cbl combined is excellent for timing entr ies, and correct me if im wrong, is this the missing piece of the puzzle in bb dna, is this the key to the no trade zones?????
60MM, 4 of the 7 trades I took were in no trade zones and all won. I'm still in the earliest phase of testing, but my nornal win rate on trades taken in no trade zones is much less, like around 50% . I will say I am being very careful on not tr ading long into a higher time frame supply zone, or short into a hi gher time frame demand zone. For the most part though, these were trades I would ha ve wanted to take anyway because of other reasons and the s/d picture just gave me additional confidence to take the trade and stay with them through the small retracements.
Your statement that this can work except with breakout of global warfare is right on point. I'm not talking about not taking s/d trades because of red flag news. That news is the fuel to move price from supply to demand zones over and over and we depend on it to make our price targets. Specifically, I'm saying that very significant suprise news, like N. Korea shelling S. Korea will cause the system to break down, since price onl y moves in one direction then. Of course, that is the only sort of news I usually trade, and it can be very profitable by multi-lot trend trading in only that one dirrection. Like I said, that only usually happens once every month or two.
So, In my own humble opinion, a complete system is two parts. One which uses s/d most of the time when N. Korea isn't shelling S. Korea, or something like that, and simply trend trading with multi-lots in the rare occasion when something like that is making headline s on every news broadcast in the world.
Last edited b y Graviton ; 11-28-2010 at 07:12 PM.
11-29-2010, 09:12 PM
60minuteman
Se nior Memb erJoin Date : N ov 2 010 Posts: 157
ok, another week begins...
+143 for the day, sounds good right? well how about 223?
well thats what i would of had if i wasnt an idiot, i set a rule to not trade the euro and then complete ly ignored it.... so first lesson, dont break your rules!
hahha ... but seriously im beginning to realise that you can easily win 100 pips a day consistently if you just pick strong supply and strong demand....
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#70 12-01-2010, 08:29 AM