Factibilidad Operativa

With the impending One Network Road Classification, a review of current and desired levels of service will be undertaken to identify services gaps. This review will also address the funding co- investment rates that New Zealand Transport Agency is in the final stage of confirming. MDCs current position is to retain levels of service at the current levels, however this may be subject to variation once outcomes are defined.

5

Growth and Demand

Provides details of growth forecasts and demand drivers, which affect the management, and utilisation of Transport assets.

5.1

Overview

The future demand for services will change over time in response to a wide range of influences, including:

 Local population trends.

 Accuracy of predicted future populations.

 Local economic trends.

 Land use change.

 Changing technologies.

 Changing legislative requirements.

 Changing regional and District planning requirements.

 Climate and climate change.

Increasing demand for services over time generates a requirement for the development of additional infrastructure. Expenditure programmes need to be planned to fund the capital works and associated ongoing operational expenditure. Alternately, it may be possible to manage demand within the existing system capacity.

Where a reduced demand is forecast it may be appropriate to renew assets with a lesser capacity, operational expenses may decrease or an asset may become surplus to requirements.

The land transport network is responsible for the efficient movement of people and goods throughout the District and to neighbouring Districts. The land transport network is a core facility maintained by the Council to assist it in meeting its Community Outcomes. Roading provides particularly strong inputs into the following Community Outcomes:

 Manawatu District develops a broad economic base from its solid foundation in the primary sector.

 Manawatu and its people are connected via quality infrastructure and technology.

 Manawatu’s built environment is safe, reliable and attractive.

The present road network was set up many decades ago and has been gradually upgraded to the present standard. It is quite evident, however, that community expectations in the Roading area are increasing which will require ongoing development of the Roading network.

Generally, the network copes with the demands on it. While there is little demand for the supply of new infrastructure, apart from that required in subdivision work, the present network will need considerable redevelopment over the next decade to meet this community expectation. However some factors that may force the need for change on the assets or the management of the asset are discussed below and in the following paragraphs:

An increase in population: This will result in an increase in traffic on the roads which will increase congestion and reduce the level of service provided by the road, as well as increasing wear on the roads which will increase maintenance costs and renewal frequency.

A change in the way a road is used: The creation of a new sub-division, or the development of new industry in one part of the District, may change how a road will be used. This may mean roads will need to be upgraded to accommodate the changing use.

A change in the level of service demanded by the road users: Over time, communities tend to expect improving service from their assets. Roads and the activities involved in managing the roads therefore, may need to be improved to satisfy these future needs.

A change in the strategic management of the assets: The Council’s policies and management strategies are in continual evolution to keep pace with the changing needs of the community, statutory requirements, funding organisations and central government. The trend to more lifestyle blocks in the country-side has also changed the expectation of the travelling public in rural areas. These rural roads are no longer used only by local farmers, but now have a much wider range of people and vehicle types driving on them. This has resulted in factors such as smoothness of ride, loose metal and higher speeds becoming more important to more road users. Changes to policies and management strategies can also have a significant effect on how assets are managed.

The direction of future land use changes and their effects on the Roading network are difficult to determine with accuracy, but it is important that the roads likely to be affected are prepared in readiness for these changes.

Demand for new or upgraded facilities arises from the needs of the existing population i.e. meeting the level of service standards, changing habits, and population growth. This demand manifests itself in the need for:

 New roads.

 Sealing of unsealed roads.

 Widening and alignment improvements.

 Upgraded intersections.

 New and upgraded bridges.

 Appropriate urban facilities in closely settled areas e.g. street lights, kerb and channel, footpaths.

The Council intends to maintain its awareness of these issues and plans to provide a Roading network which meets the communities’ expectations. This may involve more seal extension, better ways to provide and maintain unsealed roads, and possible widening of some arterial and

collector roads in the District. Funding of all these developments has been recognised in the 10 year plan.

5.2

Population Projections