Factores que influyen en la resistencia a la corrosión

Between 2007 and 2010, Jordan’s GDP grew by almost 55 per cent. During the following four years (2011 to 2014), the rate of GDP growth slowed to 24 per cent, representing an overall decline of 56 per cent compared to pre-crisis growth. Per capita GDP growth also fell following the crisis, decreasing by 64 per cent in 2012 compared to 2011. In particular, between 2011 and 2014, GDP grew by only 16 per cent, which represents a third of the rate of growth between 2007 and 2010.

165

The national economy experienced a marked slowdown during the first quarter of 2015; affected by deepening social and political unrest in the region, particularly in Syria and Iraq; that strongly influenced the performance of many economic sectors, especially tourism and transportation. Real GDP grew by 2 per cent compared with 3.2 per cent during the first quarter of 2014, which is considered to be the lowest quarterly growth that has been

experienced since the second quarter of 201093

Public debt has increased by 53 per cent since 2011 compared to 40 per cent between 2007 and 2010, reaching 81 per cent of GDP. The national debt has soared to dangerous levels due to government borrowing to cover the cost of importing oil following the disruption of cheap gas supplies from Egypt, in addition to the cost of accommodating Syrian refugees, estimated at JOD 1.4 billion.94 Public debt increased from JOD 11.4 billion in 201095 to JOD 16.6 billion in 2012. It climbed again in 2013 to JOD 19.1 billion, increasing to JOD 20.6 billion in 2014 (80.8 per cent of GDP).96By the end of May 2015 debt had increased by a further JOD 649 million or 3.2

per cent to JOD 21.2 billion, and is expected to reach 92.6 per cent of GDP by the end of

2015.97,98

Government expenditure increased by 38 per cent between 2010 and 2014, from JOD 5.7 billion to JOD 7.9 billion.99 Despite the additional financing needs arising from the crisis the budget deficit continued to decrease from its 2012 high.100 At the end of 2014 the deficit (including grants) fell to 2.3 per cent (JOD 585.3 million) compared to 5.5 per cent (JOD 1,318 million) in 2013 and 8.3 per cent in 2012. 101 The sharp year-on-year decrease reflected an increase in grant income from 2.7 per cent of GDP in 2013 to 4.9 per cent in 2014. Excluding grants the deficit

93 _{Central Bank of Jordan Monthly Report, July 2015, page 15.}

94 _{(Asharq-Al-Awsat 14 May 2014 “Jordan’s Finance Minister: We will eliminate electricity subsidies by 2017”}

http://www.aawsat.net/2014/05/article55332275/jordans-finance-minister-we-will-eliminate-electricity-subsidies-by-2017)

95 _{Jordan Times, April 11, 2015. “Per capita share of public debt rises to over JOD3,000”}

http://www.jordantimes.com/news/local/capita-share-public-debt-rises-over-JoD3000 accessed July 13, 2015

96 _{Government of Jordan Ministry of Finance website, main page “Main Financial Indicators, Public Debt” accessed 13 July}

2015. http://www.mof.gov.jo/en-us/mainpage.aspx

97 _{Parliamentary Economic Committee Chairman Kheir Abu Seileik, “Jordan's national debt soars to dangerous levels” Al Araby}

8 March, 2015 http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2015/3/8/jordans-national-debt-soars-to-dangerous- levels#sthash.aYB5EtuY.dpuf

98 _{Government of Jordan Ministry of Finance website, main page “Main Financial Indicators, Public Debt” accessed 13 July}

2015. http://www.mof.gov.jo/en-us/mainpage.aspx

99 _{Central Bank of Jordan. Monthly Statistical Bulletin: Annex 1 - Main Economic Indicators. http://www.cbj.gov.jo} 100 _{In 2012 the deficit reached 8.3% of GDP (including grants) and 9.8% excluding grants.}

166

fell slightly to 7.2 per cent (JD 1.8 billion) in 2014 from 8.2 per cent (JOD 1.96 billion) in 2013, and 9.8 per cent in 2012. 102

Trade has also been badly affected by the crisis, with the disruption of the Syria and Turkey traffic and trading routes, leading to sharp increase in the trade deficit. In the four-year period prior to the Syria crisis, the trade deficit increased by 4.5 per cent. Between 2011 and 2014 however, the deficit increased dramatically by 27 per cent. This is largely driven by disruptions to Jordan’s main trade route through Syria: from 2007 to 2010 exports rose by 33 per cent compared with a decline of 7 per cent between 2011 and 2014.

Tourism sector has also been affected. Between 2007 and 2011 tourist numbers increased by 97 per cent. Between 2011 and 2014, however, this increase stalled at 6 per cent. At the same time income from tourism, which had been growing before the crisis (up 48 per cent over the four years) has grown almost half that rate – 28 per cent – in the four years since the crisis.

Finally, capital expenditure remains inadequate to address the structural impact of the crisis. The ratio of capital to current expenditure in 2014 remained well below pre-crisis levels as the government struggled to cope with the disruption of cheap gas supplies from Egypt and the impact of the Syria crisis. At 14.47 per cent, the 2014 ratio remains 2.37 per cent lower than capital investment in 2010, at a time when assessments across a range of sectors have highlighted the accelerated degradation and depreciation of public sector services as a result of excess

demand arising from the Syria crisis.

Table 1: Capital Expenditures (JOD)

YEAR 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 TOTAL EXP 7852.9 7077.1 6878.2 6796.6 5708.0 CURRENT EXP 6716.6 6056.1 6202.8 5739.5 4746.6 CAPITAL EXP 1136.3 1021.0 675.4 1057.1 961.4 CAP EXP AS % 14.47% 14.43% 9.82% 15.55% 16.84% Source: CBJ

167

JORDAN'S MAJOR MACRO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Economic Indicator 2007 2010 Change Rate 2007-2010= (2010- 2007)/2007 2011 2014 Change Rate 2011- 2014=(2014- 2011)/2011 Change Amount= (% change (2011- 20014)- (%change(2007- 2010)) Change Rate=((%change (2011-2014)- %change(2007- 2010))/%change(2007- 2010) GDP (at Current Market

Prices - million JOD) 12131.4 18762.0 54.7% 20476.6 25437.1 24.2% -30.4% -55.7%

Per Capita GDP (in Dinars) 2119.8 3069.2 44.8% 3276.8 3810.8 16.3% -28.5% -63.6% Domestic Export (million

JOD) 3183.7 4216.9 32.5% 4805.9 5163.7 7.4% -25.0% -77.1%

Domestic Import (million

JOD) 9722.2 11050.1 13.7% 13440.2 16145.9 20.1% 6.5% 47.4%

Trade Deficit (Exp-Imp)

(million JOD) -6538.5 -6833.2 4.5% -8634.3

-

10982.2 27.2% 22.7% 503.3%

CPI Consumer Price Index

(2010=100) 84.3 100.0 18.6% 104.2 117.4 12.7% -5.9% -31.6%

Poverty Rate % 13.0 14.4 10.8% …… ….. -10.8% -100.0%

Unemployment Rate % 13.1 12.5 -4.6% 12.9 11.9 -7.8% -3.2% 69.3%

Population (million) 5.7 6.1 6.8% 6.2 6.7 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%

Foreign Direct Investment

(million JOD) 1856.5 1168.8 -37.0% 1043.3 1273.3 22.1% 59.1% -159.5%

Foreign Grants (million JOD) 343.4 401.7 17.0% 1215.0 1236.5 1.8% -15.2% -89.6%

Public Deficit Including

Grants (million JOD) 568.5 1045.2 83.9% 1382.8 585.9 -57.6% -141.5% -168.7%

Public Debt (million JOD) 8199.6 11462.3 39.8% 13401.7 20555.5 53.4% 13.6% 34.2%

168 Per Capita Public Debt (in

Dinars) 1432.8 1875.1 30.9% 2144.6 3079.5 43.6% 12.7% 41.2%

Tourism (number of Tourists

for package tours) 0.4 0.7 96.8%

0.4 0.4 5.7%

-91.1% -94.1%

Tourism Income (million

169