Filosofía y Educación

GE, X.1_{, SCHAAP, M.}2_{, KROS, J.}3_{, KRANENBURG, R.}2_{, SEGERS, A.J.}2_{, DE VRIES, W.}1,3

1 Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands; 2 _{Department of Climate, Air}

and Sustainability, TNO, Utrecht, Netherlands; 3 _{Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen, Netherland}

INTRODUCTION

Ammonia emissions to the atmosphere have increased substantially in Europe since 1960, largely due to agricultural practices including intensive livestock production and the use of nitrogen fertilizers. These practices have enhanced deposition of ammonia and ammonium in the form of solutes, gases and particles, causing negative societal impacts on public health and terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the limited availability of ground- based measurements, models are used to assess large-scale ammonia emissions from agriculture. The modeled emissions are in turn used in chemistry transport models (CTMs) to assess ammonia concentration and deposition. One of the CTMs, LOTOS-EUROS, combined with the MACC-III emission model, is used to create grid maps of annual ammonia emissions over Europe at a spatial resolution of 7km x 7km (Kuenen et al., 2014). However, MACC- III does not distinguish differences in crop types, housing and storage systems and manure application techniques in its spatial allocation. Furthermore, it utilizes very simple parameterizations for the seasonal variation to allocate ammonia emissions over the year, not taking into account temporal variations in local agricultural management. This limits the capability to reproduce observed spatial and seasonal variations in the ammonia concentrations of rural regions with agricultural activities.

This paper describes the application of available novel ammonia emission approaches, that quantify emissions from agriculture at a higher spatial and temporal detail, within LOTOS-EUROS, to improve modeled ammonia emissions over Europe. The potential improvement was evaluated by comparing ammonia surface concentrations and total columns calculated by LOTOS-EUROS with ground-based measurements and IASI satellite observations. MATERIAL AND METHODS

Improving the spatial resolution in annual ammonia emissions

The higher spatial detail in annual ammonia emissions was realized by embedding the ammonia emission module of INTEGRATOR into MACC-III. INTEGRATOR is a model that assesses greenhouse gas and nitrogen fluxes from agricultural sectors at high spatial resolution and accounts for differences in crop types and grass, grazing, manure application and housing and storage systems (De Vries et al., 2011; Kros et al., 2011). The emissions in INTEGRATOR are calculated for polygons with unique combinations of major land use and soil types (co-called NCUs) being multiples of 1km x 1km grid cells in the reference system of ETRS89, while MACC-III emissions are gridded at 7 km x 7km in World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS84). Therefore, emission estimates from INTEGRATOR were transformed into WGS84. By slicing and reallocating INTEGRATOR emissions onto regular MACC-III grids, a map of ammonia annual total emission over Europe was retrieved, with a higher spatial resolution and distinguishing different crop types, housing and storage systems.

Improving the temporal resolution in ammonia emissions over the year

The much more detailed temporal distribution of ammonia emissions over the year was derived by the integration of the TIMELINES model (Hutchings et al., 2012), which provides predictions of timelines of key agricultural operations, such as fertilization, across Europe. The output used is the Julian day of fertilizer and/or manure application together with information about fertilizer type, amount of ammonium, nitrate or organic nitrogen, and application method, which all have impact on the ammonia emission factors over the course of one year. A

new algorithm was developed based on the above factors, as well as the difference between day and night, weekday and weekend.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The calculated total ammonia columns obtained from the renewed ammonia emission estimates showed a better correspondence with the IASI satellite observations than the ones retrieved with the original MACC-III results. The mean and standard deviation of difference between renewed estimates and remotely sensed data were 39.8% and 23.1% smaller than the original estimates, respectively. Furthermore, at selected ground stations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) framework, newly modeled surface ammonia concentrations over the year demonstrate closer temporal variations with in-situ measurements.

Figure 1. Comparison of ammonia surface concentrations from in-situ measurements and estimates obtained by LOTOS- EUROS with emission inputs from old MACC-III and renewed model.

CONCLUSION

The adapted LOTOS-Euros model, including high spatial and temporal resolution ammonia emissions by combining three models – MACC-III, INTEGRATOR and TIMELINES leads to improved 4D maps (in space and time) of ammonia concentrations over Europe. This is indicated by a closer comparison with satellite observations and in-situ measurements. At current stage, the temporal allocation needs more refinement to give better results.

Acknowledgements: This research has been supported by the NWO funded project AMARETTO (reference ALW- GO/16-02).

REFERENCES

De Vries W., Leip A., Reinds G.J., Kros J., Lesschen J.P., Bouwman A.F., 2011. Comparison of land nitrogen budgets for European agriculture by various modeling approaches, Environmental Pollution, 159-11, 3254-3268.

Kros, J., Frumau K.F.A., Hensen A., De Vries W., 2011. Integrated analysis of the effects of agricultural management on nitrogen fluxes at landscape scale, Environ. Pollut., 159-11, 3171-3182.

Hutchings, N.J., Reinds G.J., Leip A., Wattenbach M., Bienkowski J.F., Dalgaard T., Dragosits U., Drouet J.L., Durand P., Maury O., De Vries W., 2012. A model for simulating the timelines of field operations at a European scale for use in complex dynamic models. Biogeosciences, 9, 4487-4496.

Kuenen J. J. P., Visschedijk A. J. H., Jozwicka M., Denier van der Gon H. A. C., 2014. TNO-MACC_II emission inventory; a multi-year (2003–2009) consistent high-resolution European emission inventory for air quality modelling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10963-10976.

USING THE BOTTOM-UP INVENTORY METHOD CADASTRE_NH3 TO ASSESS THE EFFICIENCY OF MITIGATION